后危机时代IPO市场大幅萎缩

If you want to know whether capitalism is alive and kicking, watch company share launches. Initial public offerings allow investors to profit from business success stories, provide finance for job creation and economic growth, and reinvigorate global equities markets.

如果你想知道资本主义是否活力尚存，观察一下公司股票发行情况就能略知一二。首次公开发行(initial public offering，简称IPO)给投资者们提供了分享企业成功的机会，为创造就业和经济增长提供了资金，并为全球股票市场注入活力。

The latest news is not encouraging. Yesterday’s $1.7bn London debut of Megafon showed European equity capital markets still have a heartbeat. But the poor reception for the Russian mobile phone operator’s shares, which fell below the offer price soon after trading started, will only fuel fears that the runaway IPO success has become an endangered species.

最新的消息很难令人感到振奋。近日Megafon在伦敦首发融资17亿美元的例子表明，欧洲股权资本市场一息尚存。但这家俄罗斯手机运营商新股上市以后的疲软表现（在开盘交易后迅速跌破发行价），加剧了市场有关成功的IPO项目已经成为濒危物种的担忧。

Global IPO volumes have fallen this year to levels scarcely better than in 2008 and 2009, when the world economy reeled from the collapse of Lehman Brothers investment bank. Even in a weak market, Europe is underperforming, accounting for just 11 per cent of global IPO proceeds so far this year. That is less than half last year’s proportion, Thomson Reuters data show. The result has been soul-searching among banks and stock exchanges. The future of the IPO is not just about how well capital markets are functioning. At stake is the sustainability of banks’ equity markets departments, which depend on IPOs spinning off other business but face severe competition in a shrinking industry.

今年全球IPO融资规模出现萎缩，仅略高于2008和2009年时的水平，当时投资银行雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产使全球经济陷入震荡。即使在整体市场疲软的大背景下，欧洲市场的表现也逊人一筹。来自汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)的数据显示，欧洲市场今年到目前为止的IPO融资规模仅占全球的11%，尚不及上年所占比重的二分之一。该数据促使投资银行和股票交易所自我反剩IPO市场的未来不仅关系到资本市场能否很好地运行，还涉及到银行股票市场部门的存续；目前后者主要依靠由IPO项目带动的其他后续业务，但在日渐萎缩的市场格局下面临激烈竞争。

If the cause was simply the poor economic climate, there would be less concern: we could just await the turnround. The particular weakness of the European IPO market suggests this is at least part of the explanation; the continent is lagging behind the US in producing any kind of economic recovery. When European companies have had international growth stories to tell, the temptation is to list elsewhere. Prada, the Italian luxury goods group, listed last year in Hong Kong.

如果IPO市场不景气仅仅是受经济形势疲软影响，情况就不会那么让人担忧，只需静待经济回暖即可。欧洲IPO市场尤为惨淡的状况表明，宏观经济形势至少是部分原因。欧洲大陆经济复苏的步伐落后于美国。对于有全球成长空间的欧洲企业来说，它们通常都会选择在欧洲以外的市场上市。意大利奢侈品制造商普拉达(Prada)就于去年在香港上市。

The danger, however, is that the IPO slump is the result of deeper changes in financial markets’ functioning in a post-crisis world.

最令人担忧的一种可能是，IPO活动低迷是后危机时代金融市场功能发生深层次变化的结果。

IPOs have a seriously tarnished reputation. The impression is of IPOs being about existing owners cashing in. Investors have been sold short, with prices pitched too high and insufficient attention to ensuring a profitable aftermarket. Facebook’s jinked US IPO is etched in investor’s minds globally; the social network’s shares are still a third below May’s $38 listing price.

近年来IPO活动的市场声誉受损严重。市场人士普遍形成了这样的看法：IPO是公司所有者的圈钱渠道。参与IPO认购的投资者遭遇卖空冲击，影响因素包括发行定价过高，以及公司管理层没有对保证上市之后二级市场仍有获利空间给予足够重视。Facebook在美国IPO之后急转直下的走势给全球投资者留下了深刻印象，目前这家社交网站的股价仍较其每股38美元的发行价低约三分之一。

Of the main share listings in London since the start of 2010, more than half are trading below the issue price, according to figures compiled by Deloitte. “The days are over when something was left on the table, and both bankers and investors took a longer-term view. We are in a different world, says Paul Woolley, senior fellow at the London School of Economics.

德勤(Deloitte)收集整理的数据显示，2010年以来在伦敦上市的主要公司中，超过二分之一的公司目前的股价低于发行价。伦敦政治经济学院(London School of Economics)的高级研究员保罗·伍利(Paul Woolley)指出：“新股折价发行的时代已经结束，桌子上不会再有什么东西留下，投资银行家和投资者都转而采取了更为长期的视角。我们所处的市场环境已经改变。

Not just investment bankers are to blame. Investors are accused of expecting an excessive short-term pop. Continental Europeans, wary of the pressures of capital markets, have hang-ups about slashing prices to get an IPO away.

不仅是投资银行家应对此承担责任，投资者们期望在短期内得到超额收益的心态也有问题。欧洲大陆的投资者对于资本市场中的压力较为警觉，他们对IPO后股价大跌的情况颇有顾虑。

But participants in the IPO market react to incentives. Macroeconomic uncertainty in an era of historically low interest rates has encouraged short-termism. Passive, index-tracking investment strategies have dulled pricing mechanisms. Computerised high-frequency trading could have convinced potential investors that the system is gamed against them by eating away at profit opportunities and liquidity. “It is as if we have unleashed flesh eating bacteria on the market, says David Weild, equity market specialist at Grant Thornton. “The flesh is the broker dealer intermediaries who were supporting growth businesses.

但IPO市场中的参与者们会受到外在诱因的影响。在利率处于历史低位的环境下，宏观经济的不确定性助长了市场中的短期心态。跟踪指数式的被动投资策略削弱了定价机制。电脑操控的高频交易对市场获利机会和流动性的侵蚀，可能导致潜在投资者认为整个市场机制对他们不利。均富(Grant Thornton)的股票市场专家戴维·维尔德(David Weild)表示：“这就如同将食肉细菌放入市场一样，经纪自营商等过去为成长型企业提供支持的中介机构受到侵蚀。

At the same time investors have been encouraged by the apparent “death of equities to shift into bonds. While banks’ equity market divisions scramble for business, their corporate bond departments are enjoying a renaissance. With bond issuance there is no need to build a relationship between issuers and investors. Everyone knows the game is about securing funding at the lowest possible price. But bonds cannot substitute for equities in corporate financing.

与此同时，股票市场显而易见的不景气又促使投资者转入债券市常一方面，银行的股票市场部门在争抢业务，另一方面，银行的企业债券部门则迎来了复兴。在债券发行领域，没有必要在发行方和投资者之间建立联系。每个人都知道，决胜的关键在于以尽可能低的成本获取资金。但在企业融资结构中，股票的位置是债券所无法取代的。

IPOs require marketing and a story about the future. They are about taking ownership. To help revive the IPO market, the US has taken steps to loosen procedures, especially for start-up companies, and the UK is taking similar steps. The past year has also seen banks rethinking their approach to IPOs by creating investor “fan clubs earlier, re-examining fee structures, selling smaller chunks and tightening timetables. The aim is to rebuild trust. “When you invite new people into your house, you want to be nice to them, says one IPO veteran. Encouragingly, IPO volumes have accelerated modestly in the past few months – with Megafon part of that trend. But a longer-term revival will require more than just bankers being a little nicer.

IPO活动需要营销，首发企业本身也应具备关于未来发展的“好故事。获取所有权是IPO的核心。为了帮助IPO市场恢复活力，美国已经采取措施放宽相关程序，特别是对于初创企业的要求；英国也在商讨采取类似措施。过去的一年中，投资银行也在重新思考自身的IPO战略，并采取了提早建立投资者“俱乐部、重新审视收费结构、出售规模较小的业务部门以及压缩时间表等举措。其核心目的在于重建信任。一位IPO市场资深人士表示：“当你邀请新朋友来家里做客时，你应当好好对待他们。令人振奋的是，近几个月来IPO融资规模略有增长——Megafon就是其中一例。但要让IPO市场获得更为持久的复兴，所需要的远不只是更为友善的投资银行家。

The writer is the FT’s capital markets editor

本文作者是英国《金融时报》资本市场编辑