Lex专栏：太阳能产业的生机

Is there anybody who isn’t squabbling over solar power? Beijing does not like European subsidies while Brussels has already queried China’s solar cell pricing and brought a case against Canada. Washington has levied anti-dumping tariffs against Beijing. Enough. All the subsidies in the world have not produced a viable industry. But technology might be about to do so.

还有哪个国家没在太阳能方面吵吵闹闹？中国指责欧洲对太阳能产业提供补贴，而欧盟已开始质疑中国的太阳能电池价格，并已对加拿大提起诉讼。美国政府也已开始对中国征收反倾销关税。够了！依靠世界上的各种补贴是无法使这个行业成活的，只有技术才有可能做到。

Solar power has been an investment black hole. In five years, the combined market capitalisation of the biggest groups has shrunk by about nine-tenths. And that includes survivor bias, since many companies have already flamed out. If there was something to get wrong, the industry has done it – from overcapacity to reliance on government subsidies in an age of austerity. Yet the cost per watt of installing solar facilities has also fallen by four-fifths over those five years, according to Bernstein. Now roughly $1.23, the cost could fall below $1 next year, the firm estimates. That would make it potentially cheaper than gas in the sunnier parts of China, the market with the biggest potential. It will still be 50 per cent more pricey than coal, from which China takes most of its energy but which it wants to reduce. Solar power could help without relying on subsidies.

太阳能产业已经成为一个投资黑洞。五年内最大的几个集团的总市值缩水了约90%。这一数字还没有剔除“幸存者偏差(survivor bias)，因为许多公司由于已破产而未被统计。如果说有什么地方出了问题，那就是这个行业本身——不仅产能过剩，而且在经济紧缩之际还依赖政府补贴。不过，根据伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的数据，在这五年中，安装太阳能发电设施的每瓦特成本也降低了五分之四。据伯恩斯坦估计，如今每瓦特约1.23美元的成本，到明年有望降至每瓦特1美元以下。这样，在中国日照更为充分的区域，太阳能有可能会比天然气更便宜。中国是太阳能的最大潜在市常虽然比起中国目前电力的主要来源——煤，太阳能发电仍将贵50%，但是中国正希望减少煤的用量。从这个意义来说太阳能发电将不需要补贴就能发挥作用。

Getting the economics of solar power to a point where it makes sense is one thing. Picking a winner among those still standing is another given the value destruction. Net debt is often equivalent to more than half of solar-panel makers’ total capital. Suntech, the world’s biggest solar panel manufacturer, risks being delisted in New York. Thinking that the industry can stand without subsidies in the near future is a mistake. However, it will not be the trade battles currently under way that make it work, but the technology. This is getting interesting, but it would take a very brave investor to jump in just yet.

推动太阳能产业产生经济效益是一回事，但在估值暴跌的情况下从幸存厂商中挑出优胜者来投资则是另一回事。太阳能电池板生产商的净债务经常超过其总资本的一半。世界上最大的太阳能电池板生产商尚德(Suntech)目前有被纽约证交所摘牌的危险。认为在不远的将来这一行业可以不依靠政府补贴就能生存是不对的。然而能保证这个行业生存的是技术，而不是现在正进行的贸易大战。情况正变得越来越有趣，但眼下只有极其勇敢的投资者才敢投资这个板块。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析