渣打银行能否续写增长童话？

Standard Chartered this week flew 20 of its top shareholders to Beijing for a three-day immersion into the intricacies of the bank’s operations in China and elsewhere.

本周，渣打银行(Standard Chartered)的20名大股东飞往北京，参加为期3天的活动，讨论该银行在中国及其他地区业务的复杂性。

The roadshow was an attempt to kick-start a share price that, despite a year of continued profit growth that leaves most rivals in the shade, has stagnated. The stock is up less than 4 per cent compared with the 20-30 per cent gains racked up by global rivals Citigroup and HSBC.

他们展开这一“路演是为了推动渣打股价上涨。尽管过去一年该银行利润持续增长，让多数竞争对手黯然失色，但其股价一直停滞不前。相对于花旗(Citigroup)和汇丰银行(HSBC)等全球竞争对手股价20%至30%的涨幅，渣打股价涨幅不到4%。

Though part of that underperformance stems from other banks’ stock rebounds after longstanding weakness, sentiment towards StanChart and its chief executive Peter Sands has been muted in recent months by homegrown factors.

尽管渣打股价相对表现不佳的部分原因是，其他银行股价在长期疲弱之后反弹，但最近几个月，自身因素让渣打银行及其行政总裁冼博德(Peter Sands)的人气一直低落。

Still hanging over the bank is a multi-agency regulatory inquiry in the US over StanChart’s breach of Iranian sanctions. Already fined $340m by one regulator, the bank is expected to settle with the others for a sum that in aggregate could match the first one by the end of the year.

该银行仍然笼罩着一层阴影：美国多个机构正就渣打违反美国对伊制裁禁令展开监管调查。一家监管机构已对其做出罚款3.40亿美元的处罚，到今年年底之前，预计渣打将与其他监管机构达成和解，和解总金额可能与第一笔罚金相当。

A second cause for concern has been slowing emerging markets growth at a macroeconomic level – the lifeblood of a bank with a three-way focus on Asia, the Middle East and Africa. “We are seeing for the first time some signs of Asia really beginning to slow, finance director Richard Meddings said last month.

市场担心的第二个理由是新兴市场宏观经济增长放缓，而新兴市场是该银行的活力源泉，亚洲、中东和非洲是该行的三个业务重点。渣打银行财务董事麦定思(Richard Meddings)上月表示：“我们正看到一些迹象表明亚洲确实在开始放缓，这还是第一次。

The question now is: after nine years of record profits and an unscathed record through the financial crisis, is the fairytale over?

现在的问题是：在经历了9年的创纪录利润、而且在此次金融危机中毫发未损之后，渣打童话是否已结束？

The group’s message in Beijing has been in part an attempt to offset the cooling macro picture and convince investors that its ambitious targets remain achievable. It is standing by a pledge to deliver double-digit percentage profit growth, underpinned by an aspiration to double wholesale banking profits to $10bn in four years – a third more than its far bigger rival HSBC earns in its equivalent “global banking and markets division.

从一定程度而言，渣打在北京传达的信息是一种尝试，它试图抵消宏观经济降温的影响，同时让投资者相信其雄心勃勃的目标仍可实现。渣打仍将坚持实现两位数利润增长的承诺，这基于以下雄心：在4年内将批发银行业务利润增加一倍，达到100亿美元，比竞争对手汇丰的批发银行部门——“全球银行和市场部的当前利润高出三分之一。汇丰的规模远超渣打。

But it is just that kind of growth ambition that concerns some investors.

但正是这种增长抱负让部分投资者感到担心。

A central tactic is to steal market share from rivals. One slide in a recent investor presentation showed that the bank with the largest share of a client’s “wallet tends to make four times as much money from that client as the bank with the third-largest share.

一个核心策略是从竞争对手那里夺取市场份额。最近一场投资者报告的幻灯片显示，在客户“钱包中份额最大的银行从客户那里赚取的收益，往往是份额第三的银行的4倍。

Between 2010 and 2011, StanChart’s exposure to its top 100 clients around the world grew at a compound annual rate of 23 per cent, while its exposure to the next 600 increased only 10 per cent in the most recent year.

2010年至2011年，渣打银行全球100个最大客户的贷款规模复合年增长率为23%，而最近一年面向之后600名客户的贷款规模仅增长10%。

Overall, the wholesale loan book grew at a compound annual rate of 18 per cent in the past five years, close to the level where analysts begin to worry. There has also been an increased focus on lending on an unsecured basis, just as HSBC has signalled a shift towards safer, secured credit.

总体而言，过去5年，批发贷款复合年增长率为18%，接近分析师开始担心的水平。此外，渣打无担保贷款的比例在增加，而汇丰刚刚表示将转向更安全的有担保贷款。

“They always want to make their clients dependent on them by taking a disproportionate share of their business, says the head of another foreign bank in Mumbai. “Now, a large part of their business is with the most highly stressed companies here. They are potentially facing serious damage to their franchise.

“他们总是希望通过取得过高的业务份额，让他们的客户依赖他们，另外一家外国银行驻孟买的主管表示，“如今，这里处于最大压力之下的企业占据他们的很大一部分业务。他们的业务面临严重的潜在损失。

Analysts at Barclays recently highlighted concern over StanChart’s bad debt trends, evident in a 42 per cent increase in loan impairments in the first half of the year, compared with pre-tax profit growth of only 9 per cent. “A sharp pick-up in non-performing loans and impairments in the first half of 2012, along with concerns about the economic outlook for Asia, have sparked concerns about credit quality in StanChart’s wholesale division, the analysts wrote. “NPL formation is the fastest since 2002.

巴克莱(Barclays)分析师最近强调了对渣打银行不良贷款趋势的担忧。这种趋势在以下数据中得到明显体现：今年上半年，贷款减值损失增加42%，税前利润增幅仅为9%。“今年上半年不良贷款和贷款减值损失激增，再加上对亚洲经济前景的担忧，引发了市场对于渣打批发业务信贷质量的担忧，分析师们写道，“不良贷款形成速度为2002年以来最快。

India and the United Arab Emirates have been problem areas, with mounting NPLs. But bears see worrying signs elsewhere, too. Indonesia is beginning to reflect the strains of the slowdown in China, to which it exports, and falling prices for many of its commodities. A few weeks ago, StanChart syndicated a $1bn loan for Borneo Lumbung Energi to help finance the purchase of a stake in Bumi. But the deal was not successful and the bank was left with a large portion of the loan. StanChart says since the deal closed, it has steadily sold down its exposure.

印度和阿联酋一直是问题地区，那里的不良贷款一直在增加。但看空渣打的人还在其他地区看到了令人忧心的迹象。印尼向中国出口产品，而中国经济放缓及印尼多种大宗商品价格下跌所带来的压力，正反映在印尼经济上。几周前，渣打银行曾为Borneo Lumbung Energi发放10亿美元银团贷款，帮助其为购入Bumi部分股权融资。但这笔交易没有成功，给该银行留下了大量贷款。渣打银行表示，自交易结束以来，该银行已稳步出售其贷款。

The big bets continue. In the first half of 2012, StanChart increased exposure to mining and quarrying 75 per cent year on year to more than $11bn, making that sector by far the largest in its wholesale bank – just at a time when prices were falling. Fund managers say this increase is largely accounted for by exposure to Indonesian interests including groups with close ties to the Bakries, the prominent business family that has been rattled by the economic slowdown.

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StanChart’s routine riposte is that it is a diversified group, present in 70 markets around the world, and that problems in one or two areas are typically offset by strengths in the rest. In contrast to NPL problems in India and the Middle East, for example, Chinese wholesale bank NPLs are running at less than 0.5 per cent, a quarter below the foreign competition.

渣打还在继续投下大赌注。今年上半年，在矿产价格下跌之际，渣打银行增加了采矿业贷款，贷款规模超过110亿美元，同比增长75%，让采矿业成为其批发银行业务中贷款规模最大的行业。基金经理表示，这一增长在很大程度上源于对印尼企业的贷款，包括与知名企业家族巴克里(Bakrie)家族有着密切关系的企业，该家族因经济放缓受到打击。

The overall balance sheet is less risky than it used to be, executives say, with government debt holdings, rather than riskier commercial lending exposures, accounting for 16 of the top 20 exposures, double the tally a couple of years ago.

渣打银行照常反驳道，它是一个多元化集团，在全球70个地区市场设有业务，一两个地区的问题一般会被其他地区的优势所抵消。例如，与印度和中东的不良贷款问题形成对比的是，该银行在华批发银行业务的不良贷款率不到0.5%，比外国竞争对手低出四分之一。

Nonetheless, Mr Sands faces a tricky task persuading investors that the shares – which trade on an unusually high multiple of 1.5 times tangible book value – deserve to rise further in the short term. In addition to any operational worries, there is a stock overhang resulting from the revelation last month that top shareholder Temasek is open to offers for its 18 per cent stake – unless, of course, Temasek bosses, among those 20 investors in Beijing this week, can be reconverted into believers.

该银行高管表示，总体资产负债表的风险低于以前，持有的政府债券（而非风险较高的商业贷款）在规模最大的20项信贷中占到了16项，是几年前的两倍。

然而，冼博德面临着一项艰巨任务：让投资者相信渣打股价应会在短期内进一步攀升。目前其股价是有形账面价值的1.5倍，处于异常高位。除了所有的经营担忧之外，还有一个突出的问题：上月有消息称，渣打最大股东淡马锡(Temasek)有意出售其在渣打的18%股权。当然，若本周赴北京的20名投资者中的淡马锡老板们能够再次为渣打投出信任票，就不存在这个问题了。