全球页岩气开发遇阻

Exporting the U.S. shale energy revolution overseas turns out to be far tougher than anyone expected─giving the U.S. a significant competitive advantage.

事实证明，将美国页岩能源革命输至海外远比任何人预计得都更为艰难，而这恰给让美国获得了一个重要的竞争优势。

Shale oil and natural gas have rejuvenated the North American energy industry and boosted the economy by supplying companies and consumers with cheap fuel. There are huge shale deposits outside of North America that global energy companies and governments are eager to tap.

页岩油和天然气令北美能源业重新焕发活力，为企业和消费者提供了廉价燃料，推动了该地区的经济发展。其实，北美地区以外的页岩储量也十分庞大，全球能源企业和多个国家政府都渴望对此进行开发。

But oil companies are running into obstacles as they try to replicate the U.S. experience on other continents. The result is that significant overseas shale energy production could be a decade away.

但是，石油企业在试图将美国页岩开发的经验在其它地区加以复制时却遇到了障碍，这就导致在北美以外大规模生产页岩能源大概要等到10年以后。

Among the reasons for the glacial pace abroad are government ownership of mineral rights, environmental concerns and a lack of infrastructure to drill and transport gas and oil. In addition, much less is known about the geology in most foreign countries than in the U.S., where drilling activity has been going on for more than a century.

美国以外的页岩气开发活动之所以进展缓慢，采矿权属政府所有、环保问题和缺乏钻探与运输油气的基础设施等都是其中原因。此外，相比钻探活动已进行了百余年的美国，世界上大多数国家对自己的地质情况了解甚少。

The upshot: the U.S. and Canada could remain the main countries to reap the economic advantages of shale development for some time. In both countries, a glut of natural gas and ethane is luring petrochemical companies and fertilizer manufacturers to build new plants─a huge change after years of shifting production abroad. Meanwhile, states like Texas and North Dakota that actually have the shale deposits are getting additional boosts to their local economies from drilling activity.

其结果是，一段时期内美国和加拿大可能仍将是获得页岩开发经济优势的主要国家。在这两个国家，供过于求的天然气和乙烷正吸引着石化公司和化肥生产商前来建厂，这是继多年来石化生产移至北美以外地区后的一个巨大转变。同时，像美国得克萨斯州和北达科他州等已探明页岩储藏的州，其经济得到了页岩钻探的额外提振。

Poland was once regarded as one of the more promising plays, but early wells have hit less gas than expected. In addition, community wariness of drilling and changes to the government's tax and royalty rules have dampened industry enthusiasm. Exxon Mobil Corp., XOM +0.02% an early proponent of Polish shale, decided to throw in the towel after drilling just two wells, saying it didn't find enough oil or gas to justify additional drilling.

波兰曾被视作页岩气开发较有希望的地区之一，但早期勘探井的天然气储量小于预期。此外，社区对钻探工作的谨慎态度和波兰政府对税务和特许权规定的调整也给业界的开发热情浇了一瓢冷水。埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)曾是开采波兰页岩气的早期支持者，该公司在钻了仅两口井之后便决定放弃，说没有发现足以证明可继续进行钻探的油气量。

China is believed to have more shale oil and gas than the U.S. The problem is that most of it is in arid or heavily populated areas; oil companies worry they won't be able to obtain enough water to hydraulically fracture the rock─the process needed to free hydrocarbons from shale. 'To create a flat drilling pad, we almost always have to take out some part of a hillside and basically someone's rice paddy,' says Simon Henry, Royal Dutch Shell RDSB.LN -0.12% PLC's executive director for the Asia Pacific region.

中国页岩油和天然气储量被认为超过美国，但问题是大多数油气资源位于干旱或人口稠密地区。油企担心无法获取足够多的水将页岩层压裂，从而释放其中的碳氢化合物。荷兰皇家壳牌有限公司(Royal Dutch Shell PLC)亚太区执行董事亨利(Simon Henry)说：为建设一块平坦的钻井台，我们几乎总要炸掉一部分山体，并占去主要为私人所有的庄稼地。

Argentina recently nationalized the assets of a Spanish company that discovered an enormous shale deposit there that is estimated to hold nearly one billion barrels of oil. This has chilled outside investment, which already suffered from rules that made it difficult to import needed technology and export potential profits. Houston-based Apache Corp., APA +0.16% which holds rights to drill in 450,000 acres of Argentine shale, says it can cost twice as much to drill a well there as the U.S., and then two to four times as much to frack the well so it can begin producing.

阿根廷前不久将一家西班牙公司的资产收归国有，该公司在阿根廷发现了规模巨大的页岩气储藏，据估计储量近10亿桶油当量。阿根廷这一国有化的举动相当于冻结了外部投资，而外部投资其实已遭受相关规定的掣肘，这些规定让企业很难进口所需开发技术并输出潜在利润。美国休斯顿能源企业阿帕奇公司(Apache Corp.)拥有钻探阿根延45万英亩（约18万公顷）页岩气的权利。阿帕奇说，在阿根廷钻一口井的成本可能是在美国的两倍；钻成之后，采取水力压裂法使之开始生产页岩气的成本则是美国的两到四倍。

Other countries, like France and Bulgaria, have gone further and banned hydraulic fracking altogether because of environmental concerns, essentially stopping development in its tracks.

法国和保加利亚等国则更进一步，干脆以环保为由禁止采用水力压裂法，基本上叫停了页岩气的开发。

'There was enormous irrational exuberance for global shale development,' says Joseph Stanislaw, an independent senior energy adviser to Deloitte LLP. 'Then the industry ran into reality. Global shale will happen and when it does begin, it will take off with the same force we've seen in the U.S. But the timeline will take longer than people think.'

德勤(Deloitte LLP)的独立高级能源顾问斯坦尼斯洛(Joseph Stanislaw)说，在全球页岩开发方面，曾有许多非理性的乐观情绪，后来这一产业遇到了现实。他说，页岩产业在全球范围内遍地开花的这一天将会到来，当这一天真的到来时，它会展现出我们今天在美国看到的那种力量，但这一天到来的时间会比人们料想得要迟。

The shale revolution began in the late 1990s when the first modern shale well was drilled a few miles north of Fort Worth, Texas. The technology was pioneered by small, independent companies willing to take enormous financial risks, and helped along by landowners who owned their mineral rights and were ready to sell for a share of the profits. Wall Street eagerly financed shale exploration efforts. The industry also benefited from a large existing pipeline network and ample number of drilling rigs.

页岩气革命开始于上世纪90年代末，当时在美国德克萨斯州沃斯堡(Fort Worth)以北几英里处开钻了首个现代化页岩气井。开发页岩勘探技术的先锋是那些小规模的独立能源公司，它们愿意承受巨大的财务风险；而拥有页岩气田的土地所有者也为页岩开发助了一臂之力，他们拥有页岩的矿产权，乐于将这一权益卖给能源公司以分享页岩开发获得的利润。华尔街则热心地为页岩勘探提供财务支持。页岩产业还得益于美国业已存在的大规模输气网络以及为数众多的钻井设备。

This combination doesn't exist elsewhere in the world. 'The mineral rights, the availability of small players to enter the market, the availability of geological data, these things are all part of an entrepreneurial model that is unique to the United States,' says Julio Friedmann, the chief energy technologist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.

上述这些有利因素在世界其他地区并不同时具备。加州劳伦斯利福莫尔国家实验室(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)的首席能源技术专家弗里德曼(Julio Friedmann)说，采矿权的可获得性、小企业有可能进入市尝地质数据的可利用性，这些都是美国独有的页岩气产业创业模式的组成部分。

A key, but often overlooked, ingredient to the success of shale development in the U.S. is private ownership of much of the underground gas. That means that environmental concerns about drilling are countered by a built-in constituency of landowners looking to profit.

美国页岩开发取得成功的一项关键但却常被忽视的因素是，美国页岩资源大部分都为私人所有。这意味着外界对页岩勘探可能引发环境方面问题的担忧，会受到希望从页岩开发中获益的土地所有者这一地方势力的对抗。

It is a 'marvelously elegant system that ensures that all natural resources are fully developed,' says Rex Tillerson, chief executive of Exxon Mobil, which produces more gas in North American than any other company. Outside the U.S., mineral rights are typically owned by governments, leaving locals with little reward for putting up with large-scale industrial drilling.

埃克森美孚的首席执行长蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)说，美国有一个不可思议的精妙体系，确保所有自然资源都得到全面开发。在各家能源公司中，埃克森美孚在北美开采的天然气最多。而在美国以外的其他国家，矿产权通常由政府所有，因此矿区的当地人士缺乏忍受工业勘探所造成不便的内在利益驱动。

Another difficulty is that little is known about shale deposits around the world─unlike in the U.S. where tens of thousands of wells have been drilled and geologic data is usually made public by state regulators. Geologists know where shale deposits are overseas, but not if the rocks have particular characteristics that make fracking technology work.

世界其他国家在页岩开采方面存在的另一个困难是，它们对本国的页岩气储量情况所知甚少。而在美国，人们已经钻成了数万口页岩气探井，而地质数据通常也已被政府监管机构公布。虽然地质学家知道页岩气资源存在于海外哪些地方，但他们不知道海外页岩矿区的岩石特性是否能使压裂技术在当地的页岩气开采中得到有效运用。

Still, the prize could be significant and there are many formations around the world that industry experts believe could be as large, or larger, than the prolific Marcellus in Pennsylvania or the Bakken in North Dakota. Last year, a U.S.-government contracted study of 32 countries estimated they held 6.6 quadrillion cubic feet of shale gas, more than 50 years worth of current global consumption. The U.S. held 862 trillion cubic feet, or just 13% of the estimated resource.

但海外的页岩气开采有可能获得巨大经济效益。业内专家认为，从地质构造看，世界许多地方都可能拥有与美国宾夕法尼亚州Marcellus页岩气田和北达科他州Bakken页岩气田规模一样大、甚至规模更大的页岩气田。去年，一项受美国政府委托对全球32个国家进行的研究估计，这些国家共拥有6,600万亿立方英尺的页岩气储量，按全球目前的消费水平，这够整个世界用50年以上。美国已探明页岩气储量为862万亿立方英尺，仅为这一数额的13%。

The study didn't offer an estimate of either the volume of oil in global shales or the size of massive shale deposits in Russia and the Middle East. Other estimators have suggested this figure could be high, but nonetheless expect there is vast untapped energy in shales world-wide.

这项研究没有提供全球页岩油的估计储量，也没有提供俄罗斯和中东地区巨大的页岩气储量数据。有评估人士暗示说，这些储量数据可能很高，同时他们同事预计，全球范围内仍有大量未探明的页岩气和页岩油资源。

Companies that are investing in global shale are trying to damp down enthusiasm. Asked this summer about his expectation for shale gas development in Europe, Chevron's CVX -0.09% Vice Chairman George Kirkland said 'You are really talking next decade before you get significant volumes.'

那些在世界各地投资页岩资源的公司正试图给人们的开发热情泼冷水。雪佛龙公司(Chevron)的副董事长柯克兰(George Kirkland)今年夏季被问到他对欧洲页岩资源开发的预期时说，想在那里开发出大量页岩资源要等到本世纪20年代以后了。