苹果产品研发链空期近一年, 外部压力倍增

Here's what Apple told investors about its business Tuesday: Margins, revenues, and profits in the next quarter all will be worse than investors had expected. Here's what Apple didn't address Wednesday: Specific plans for any new product categories or personnel moves, either among its long-serving management team or to fill at least one long-vacant hole. The stock rallied in after-hours trading.

本周二，苹果（Apple）这样告诉投资者：下个季度的利润率、收入和净利润都会低于投资者此前的预期。苹果没有谈到的是：没有任何关于新的产品品类或人事变动的具体计划，既没有对长期服务的管理团队进行调整，也没有填补什么长期空缺职位。随后，苹果股价在盘后交易中反弹。

Oh yeah, one more thing: Apple (AAPL) said it will dramatically increase its dividend, its share buybacks, and, for the first time, that it will borrow significant amounts of money to fuel this return of capital to shareholders. Apple actually bragged on its earnings call with investors that it will be one of the biggest payers of dividends in the world. Think: Insanely great … dividends·

哦，对了，还有一件事：苹果宣布将大幅增加派息和股票回购，还将首次借入相当的资金来提高股东的资本回报率。事实上，苹果在这次面向投资者的业绩电话会议上甚至夸口，苹果将成为全球派息最高的公司之一。想想：超高……派息？

There's more. Tim Cook, the man with the most unenviable task in the history of business, that of following Steve Jobs, said Apple planned to release "great" new products in the "fall and throughout 2017," and, eventually, new categories. The fall· If true, meaning that if Apple's big meeting with developers in June is a ho-hum event from a new-product perspective, then Apple will have gone a year without new product introductions.

还有，从史蒂夫·乔布斯手中接过苹果公司CEO一职、怎么干都吃力不讨好的蒂姆·库克还宣布，苹果计划在“今秋和2017年”推出“非常出色”的新产品，并最终推出新的产品品类。今年秋天？如果是这样，那么6月份的苹果开发人员大会从新产品角度而言将毫无亮点，苹果将经历没有新产品推出的一年。

New products at Apple is the only thing that matters. Margins are eroding because new products cannibalize older products. The success of the iPad Mini is a financial penalty for Apple: It's a less profitable product than its bigger cousin. But that is beside the point. Apple said a significant number of iPad Mini buyers are first-time iPad buyers, and this is what is important, adding new Apple customers to its lists of people to market the next great products -- whatever their configuration. Remember, Apple has done this before. iPod Shuffle customers spent less than they did on iPods. They also had to have an iPhone when it came out.

新产品对于苹果是唯一真正重要的东西。利润率也在下降，因为新产品侵占了老产品的市场和消费者。iPad Mini的成功对于苹果的财务是一项灾难：iPad Mini的利润率低于比它大一号的iPad。但这只是一方面。苹果称，相当一部分的iPad Mini买家是首次购入iPad产品，这很重要，因为它为苹果带来了新客户，所有现有客户都会是下一款杰出产品的目标客户——不管新产品是啥样。记得吗，苹果早就这么干过，当初iPod Shuffle用户就比iPod用户的花费要低。但iPhone出现后，他们都得要一台。

In some ways, Apple sounds delusional when it talks about itself. Asked, as he has been many times before, for his take on the trend to pack bigger screens into smartphones, Tim Cook said he thinks Apple's iPhone 5 has the best screen in existence and that big screens aren't for everyone. He'll keep saying that until Apple offers a phone with a bigger screen. And we'll see how that sounds when we witness customer reactions to the new Samsung Galaxy S4, a product whose media blitz has just begun.

在某种程度上，苹果说起自己的时候有些妄自尊大。问起他对智能手机屏幕越来越大这个趋势怎么看时（这个问题他显然已经被问到过很多次了），蒂姆·库克表示，他认为苹果iPhone 5的显示屏是现有产品中最好的，大屏幕并不适合所有人。估计在苹果能够提供一款大屏手机之前，他会一直这么说。我们会关注随着消费者对三星（Samsung）新款Galaxy S4手机的反应变化，他的言辞有何变化。围绕Galaxy S4手机的诸多报道才刚刚见诸媒体。

In other ways, Apple shows that it is very much in tune with reality. Cook knows keeping $145 billion lying around is too much. So he'll give more back to shareholders. He knows that with interest rates as low as they are it makes no sense for a company with Apple's balance sheet not to borrow money and share the benefits with shareholders. So he's taking on debt -- Steve Jobs's aversion to the stuff be damned.

其他方面，苹果的自我表述与现实相当吻合。库克知道持有1,450亿美元现金实在是太多了。因此，他打算增加对股东的回馈。他知道，在当前利率这么低的情况下，像苹果这样优质的资产负债表，不贷款，不把利润与股东分享，是没有意义的。因此，他准备举债——这可是史蒂夫·乔布斯最不愿做的事了。

The world stops and listens when Apple talks. The problem is that Apple doesn't always have something to say, and Tuesday was one of those days. It would be foolish to assume Apple isn't ever going to have anything to say again. But the pressure certainly is building.

一旦苹果开口，世界都会停下来倾听。问题是苹果不是总有东西可以讲，周二就是这样。当然，不能假定苹果将来也不会有什么可讲。改变的压力显然正在不断加大。