收成不佳导致全球茶叶价格飙升

The price of tea has jumped to a 2½-year high as poor crops in some of the world's most important producers strain supplies.

茶叶价格跳涨至2年半高点，因一些最重要产茶国的歉收影响了供应。

Dry conditions, poor rains and frosts have hit tea production in Kenya, the largest exporter of black tea. A bad monsoon has reduced production prospects in India and Sri Lanka, two other major exporters.

天气干燥、雨水少以及霜冻影响了红茶最大出口国肯尼亚的茶叶产量。降雨不足降低了其他两个主要茶叶出口国——印度和斯里兰卡的产量预期。

The wholesale price of the highest quality black tea – known as broken pekoe 1 or BP1 – has surged 41 per cent higher since the start of the year, last month surpassing $4 a kg, a level seen only once before in late 2009, when prices reached $5.45.

自今年年初以来，最高等级红茶一级碎白毫(BP1)的批发价格已飙升41%，上月超过每千克4美元。这一水平以前仅在2009年末出现过一次，当时价格达到5.45美元。

The increase in prices will be felt the world over by drinkers of sweet brews in Cairo, milky cuppas in London and iced tea in Los Angeles. Tea lovers in poorer countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan are likely to feel the greatest impact, analysts said, because retailer margins are lower than in the west.

开罗甜茶、伦敦奶茶以及洛杉矶冰茶的饮用者们将感受到茶叶价格上涨的影响。分析师表示，阿富汗和巴基斯坦等较贫穷国家的喝茶爱好者可能会受到最严重影响，因为这些地方的零售商利润率低于西方。

Kaison Chang, secretary of the intergovernmental group on tea at the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, said retailers were unlikely to pass on the full rise. "You would expect some impact on the retail level but the competition among all beverages at the retail level is pretty intensive," he said.

联合国(UN)粮农组织(FAO)政府间茶叶小组秘书长常恺松(Kaison Chang)表示，零售商不太可能将全部涨幅转嫁给消费者。他表示："预计这将对零售价格造成一些影响，但在零售领域，各种饮料之间的竞争相当激烈。"

Unlike coffee, tea does not trade in a futures exchange but via physical deals at weekly auctions in Mombasa, Kenya.

与咖啡不同，茶叶不在期货交易所交易，而是在肯尼亚蒙巴萨每周举行的拍卖会上进行现货交易。

Traders and analysts believe that prices may climb further this year. Kenyan tea production was 158,000 tonnes in the first six months of the year, down 11.3 per cent from 2011, according to the Tea Board of Kenya. Indian and Sri Lankan output is likely to be 5-10 per cent lower than last year, according to Mr Chang.

交易商和分析师认为，茶叶价格今年可能会继续攀升。根据肯尼亚茶叶管理委员会(Tea Board of Kenya)的数据，今年头6个月，肯尼亚茶叶产量为15.8万吨，较2011年减少11.3%。常恺松表示，印度和斯里兰卡的茶叶产量可能会比去年减少5%至10%。

"Indications are that the price is going to go up pretty high," he said. The falls in production would support prices at a level of about $4.50 a kg, he added.

他表示："有迹象显示，茶叶价格将升至很高水平。"他补充称，产量下降将令茶叶价格在每千克约4.50美元的水平获得支撑。

The biggest importers of tea – Russia, the UK, Pakistan and the Middle East – have stocked up in recent months, traders said, meaning that prices could ease in the short term as buyers step back from the market.

交易商表示，最近几个月，最大茶叶进口国——俄罗斯、英国、巴基斯坦和中东国家——增加了库存，这意味着，短期而言，随着买家退出市场，价格可能会下跌。

In its most recent market report, Van Rees, a Dutch tea trader, said it expected prices to "take a breather before taking off again for winter".

荷兰茶叶交易商Van Rees在其最新市场报告中称，预计茶叶价格将"短暂休整一番，到冬季将再次上涨"。

But demand is rising quickly in India and China, traditionally large exporters. "The consumption level in China and India has been growing pretty rapidly over the last five years or so and that has contributed significantly to the increase in prices," said Mr Chang.

然而，在传统茶叶出口大国——印度和中国，需求正快速升温。常恺松表示："过去5年左右，中国和印度的消费水平一直在快速上升，这大大促进了价格的上涨。"