分析：蒙蒂之后，谁还能领导意大利？

It will be quite a responsibility to follow an acknowledged saviour, a man so trusted by international lenders that most of them not-so-secretly hope he will still be prime minister after elections next spring. Nor will the responsibility end there. Any successor may well hold in his hands the future of the euro. So no pressure then.

继承一位公认救世主的衣钵必然责任重大（这位救世主深受国际放贷者的信任，以至于他们中的多数半公开地希望他在明年春天大选后能够连任总理）。而这一责任也不止于此。他的继任者很可能掌握着欧元的未来。没什么压力吧？

The country in question is Italy, the eurozone’s largest sovereign debtor, its third-largest economy and the one with the most longstanding, most deep-seated ailments. The man likely to succeed the esteemed Mario Monti is not Silvio Berlusconi, although he has announced yet another “comeback, claiming he is being asked by many people “to save Italy, just a year after Mr Monti was appointed prime minister to save it from him. Instead the man to watch, and think about, is a former communist, Pier Luigi Bersani.

这里涉及的国家是意大利，欧元区最大的主权债务国、第三大经济体以及沉疴宿疾最甚的成员国。该国受人尊敬的总理马里奥·蒙蒂(Mario Monti)的继任者很可能不是西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)，尽管他已再次宣布“复出，声称许多人请求他“拯救意大利（仅仅一年前，蒙蒂被任命为意大利总理，以便从贝卢斯科尼手中拯救意大利）。相反，真正应该关注或考虑的候选人是前共产党人皮耶·路易吉·贝尔萨尼(Pier Luigi Bersani)。

Mr Berlusconi will relish running against Mr Bersani more than he would have relished competing against Matteo Renzi, the man Mr Bersani beat in last Sunday’s primaries to become his centre-left Democratic party’s candidate. Mr Renzi, the 37-year-old mayor of Florence, would have personified change, in a centrist, Tony Blair sort of way. He would also have rivalled Mr Berlusconi in his optimism and telegenic skills. Mr Bersani is a duller, older man about whom Mr Berlusconi can readily use his favourite insult: communist.

贝尔萨尼上周日在预选中击败了马泰奥·伦齐(Matteo Renzi)，成为中左的民主党(Democratic party)的候选人。相比伦齐，贝卢斯科尼将更喜欢与贝尔萨尼对决。37岁的佛罗伦萨市长伦齐也许会以类似托尼·布莱尔(Tony Blair)的中间立场带来改变。他还拥有足以媲美贝卢斯科尼的乐观及上镜的形象。贝尔萨尼则比较沉闷，年纪也更大，而且贝卢斯科尼还可以现成地使用他最爱用的骂人话：“共产党人。

Yet the truth is that Mr Bersani is as far from being a communist as Mr Berlusconi is from being a model of rectitude. And while Mr Berlusconi’s party, currently called “People of Liberty, is in disarray, Mr Bersani’s Democratic party has been strengthened by a civilised primary election campaign, and energised by Mr Renzi’s strong, but not divisive showing. Opinion polls say that if the elections were held now, Mr Bersani would be the clear winner.

然而真相是，贝尔萨尼根本不是共产主义者，就像贝卢斯科尼根本不是正直的典范一样。在贝卢斯科尼所在的政党——“自由人民党——处于混乱之际，贝尔萨尼的民主党却通过一场文明的初选加强了凝聚力，通过伦齐强有力而没有分裂倾向的表现加强了活力。民调显示，如果现在就举行大选，贝尔萨尼将大获全胜。

The question for investors is whether to worry about that. Plenty of people, especially in business, still think that Mr Monti will somehow be kept in office in order to reassure bond markets and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. But while that outcome may sound seductively simple to some, it would only be possible if the spring elections were inconclusive. That is not the result investors should hope for.

对于投资者来说，问题在于该不该为此感到担心。许多人，尤其是商界人士，仍然认为，为确保国债市场以及德国总理安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)的信心，蒙蒂将以某种方式留任。然而，尽管对有的人来说这一结局听上去简单得具有诱惑力，但它只有在春季大选结果不确定的情况下才可能出现。这不是投资者应当企盼的局面。

The outcome Italy needs is one that gives a new government the chance of surviving for all or most of its five-year term, enabling it to implement profound reforms. Italy’s problems are not matters of short-term management of government budgets, which is what Mr Monti has mainly been concerned with during his year in office, nor really a question of the public debt, even though it totals 120 per cent of gross domestic product.

意大利需要的结果是，让新政府有机会坚持整个五年任期或其中大部分时期，使其能够实施深层次改革。意大利的问题不是蒙蒂总理任内主要关心的短期政府预算管理问题，实质上也不是公共债务问题——尽管意大利公共债务总计相当于其国内生产总值(GDP)的120%。

The real problem is a chronic lack of economic growth during the past 20 years, which has prevented that debt burden from being reduced.

意大利的真正问题是，过去20年间经济增长持续乏力，阻碍了其削减债务负担的能力。

To deal with that requires a government capable of removing the country’s many self-imposed obstacles to economic growth, which in turn requires broad support and political durability. Such a result can really only come with a victory for Mr Bersani’s Democratic party, and thus – for all his virtues – with the retirement of Mr Monti as prime minister.

要解决这一问题，意大利需要一任能够移除该国众多自行设置的阻碍经济增长的障碍的新政府，而这进而需要广泛的支持和政治上的持久性。只有贝尔萨尼的民主党获胜、并且蒙蒂（不管他有多少优点）卸任首相的情况下，才能取得这样的结果。

In the primaries, Mr Bersani made an ally of a small party to his left and cosied up to the big trade union federations. Now he needs to take a leaf out of American presidential candidates’ books and start tacking to the centre, both to win votes directly and to gain partners for a potential coalition.

在初选中，贝尔萨尼与一个比他更左的小党结盟，而且迎合大型工会联合会。现在他必须从美国总统大选中取经，开始向中间立场靠拢，这样做既是为了直接赢得选票，也是为未来潜在的联合政府赢得伙伴。

A clear victory for Mr Bersani is a necessary prerequisite for reform. But the question investors and anyone concerned about the prospects for Italy and the euro must ask is whether it will be sufficient. The answer to that depends on whether Mr Bersani can show that he really understands Italy’s ailments.

贝尔萨尼大获全胜是实施改革的必要前提。但投资者与任何关注意大利与欧元前景的人士必须提出的问题是，这是否足够。答案取决于贝尔萨尼能否展现出他真正理解意大利的病症。

His record is mildly promising in that regard. As minister for economic development in Romano Prodi’s weak centre-left government from 2006-08 he attempted to introduce just the type of liberalisation programme that is now needed on a much larger scale.

从他的记录看，他在这方面是有点希望的。2006-08年间，他在罗马诺·普罗迪(Romano Prodi)软弱的中左翼政府中担任经济发展部长时，就试图引入一个自由化计划。现在需要以大得多的规模推行这种自由化计划。

To achieve such a programme he will have to kill a lot of leftwing sacred cows. Italy’s 20-year sickness has been assisted by the left’s destruction of meritocracy in universities and the public sector, and by its refusal so far to contemplate a Scandinavian-style labour-market reform that weakens old job protections in return for better welfare support. Above all, the sickness has been assisted by the Italian left’s deep suspicion of capitalism, embodied recently by its demonisation of Sergio Marchionne, the Canadian-Italian boss of Fiat.

要实现这一计划，他将必须清除左翼的大量神圣堡垒。意大利的20年顽疾之所以如此严重，正是因为左翼摧毁了大学和公共部门的择优任用制度，而且至今拒绝考虑斯堪的纳维亚式的劳动市场改革（这种改革削弱旧有的就业保护，代之以更好的福利支持）。最要命的是，意大利的弊病因左翼严重怀疑资本主义而加重。近期妖魔化菲亚特(Fiat)的加拿大籍意大利裔老板塞尔焦·马尔基翁内(Sergio Marchionne)就体现了这种心态。

Changing that will be the tallest of orders for Mr Bersani. But without a strong government led by someone like him, it would be virtually impossible.

改变这种状况将是贝尔萨尼的最艰巨任务。但如果没有一个贝尔萨尼之类的人物领导的强势政府，这一任务几乎不可能完成。

The writer is co-author of ‘Girlfriend in a Coma’, a documentary film about Italy

本文作者是一部关于意大利的纪录片《Girlfriend in a Coma》的合著者