经济衰退时哪些工作不易丢?

Before, during and after the recession, demand for one sort of worker has been persistently stronger: jobs that involve assisting or caring for other people - from fast-food workers to home-health aides to nail polishers.

无论是经济衰退前、经济衰退中还是经济衰退后，有一类人员一直比较走俏──他们从事着辅助他人的生活或是照料他人生活的工作，包括快餐店员工、家庭保健护理师和美甲师等。

These occupations have one thing in common: They aren't easily automated or outsourced abroad. 'You can't send people to China or India for a haircut,' says Israel Kakuriev, 37 years old, who has been cutting hair in midtown Manhattan for the past 20 years. Nor is there, yet, a robot that can cut hair or hold the hand of an elderly woman with Alzheimer's or do all the chores that flight attendants do.

这些行业都有一个共同点──不易于实行自动化操作或是被外包到海外。今年37岁、已在曼哈顿中城干了20年理发工作的伊兹蕾•卡库尔耶夫(Israel Kakuriev)说道，“你总不能把别人送到中国或印度去理发吧。”而且，现在还没有能理发的机器人，没有能够搀扶患有老年痴呆症的老妇人的机器人，也没有能够处理空乘人员那些杂务的机器人。

The U.S. government releases its latest snapshot of the job market Friday morning amid worrisome signs that economic growth is slowing well short of full employment.

目前美国出现了经济增长放缓、就业远远不够充分的令人担忧的迹象，在此背景之下美国政府最近公布了最新的就业初步数据。

But economists see a couple of longer-term trends. Dividing the workforce into high, medium and lower-skill workers, they note that around the world, demand for the most skilled and educated - from engineers to specialized factory workers - has been relatively strong. But globalization and technology have eroded demand for routine middle-skill, middle wage jobs: In factories, assembly jobs have been eliminated by automation or moved overseas; in offices, tasks once done by humans are done by computers and voice-response software.

经济学家从中发现了一些长期趋势。他们将所有劳动力划分为高级技能人员、中级技能人员和低级技能人员，他们指出全球范围而言就业市场对技能最高、教育程度也最高的人员（工程师、特殊技能工厂工人等）的需求相对比较强。然而，全球化和科技的发展削弱了美国国内对常规的中等技能和中等薪资的岗位的需求。例如，工厂中的装配岗位因为自动化或是迁往海外而消失，而以往由人处理的办公室事务如今也改由电脑和语音应答软件处理。

At the same time, Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist David Autor notes an increase in personal-service jobs - the ones that can't be done remotely from overseas and can't easily be done by machines. To measure this, Mr. Autor and MIT's Daron Acemoglu sliced the U.S. workforce into 318 occupations, ranked by skill and education. Between 1989 and 2007 - just before the recession - they found a 5% increase in routinized production, machine-operator and clerical jobs - but a 36% increase in personal-service jobs and a 40% increase in top-of-the-pyramid jobs, such as managers, professionals and finance wizards.

与此同时，麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)的经济学家戴维•奥托尔(David Autor)注意到个人服务岗位──那些无法外包到海外操作的工作或是不易用机器操作的工作──有所增加。为了评估这一状况，奥托尔和麻省理工学院的达伦•阿西莫格鲁(Daron Acemoglu)依据技能和教育程度的高低将美国的从业人员细分为318个岗位。他们发现，在1989年至衰退即将发生之前的2007年期间，常规的生产岗位、机器操作岗位以及文书岗位增加了5%，但个人服务岗位增加了36%，而处于金字塔顶尖的岗位，例如管理人员、专业人士和金融人才岗位的增幅则高达40%。

This polarization of the job market has persisted. Between 2007 and 2010, the total number of jobs in the U.S. fell by nearly 6%, but the previous pattern held: The number of middle-skill jobs, those most susceptible to automation or offshoring, fell by 12%. The number of high-end, high-education jobs fell by 1%. But despite the recession, there was a 2% increase in personal-service jobs.

美国就业市场这种两极分化的状况一直都在持续。在2007年至2010年期间，美国的就业岗位总数下降了近6%，但之前那种两极分化的模式依然存在。其中，最易受到自动化操作或海外外包冲击的中等技能的工作岗位数量下降了12%，教育程度高的高端工作岗位的数量减少了1%。然而，尽管经济发生衰退，个人服务岗位却增加了2%。

Geraldine Arguello, 45, is a nurse's assistant at Colfax Senior Care Assisted Living in rural Raton, N.M., where she prepares meals, assists with dressing and grooming and organizes bingo games.

45岁的杰拉尔丁•阿奎罗(Geraldine Arguello)是新墨西哥州拉顿市(Raton)郊区老年人服务中心Colfax Senior Care Assisted Living的一名护士助理，她的工作内容包括做饭、协助老人们穿衣、梳洗和安排宾戈游戏。

'People say anybody can do this, but it takes a lot to earn trust,' she says. 'You're providing mental stability for residents that are swallowing the fact that they're depending on others at this point to get by.' The pay isn't great, though. She makes about $10 an hour, occasionally as much as $15 an hour when she works in an individual's home.

阿奎罗说，“人们都说这个工作谁都可以干，但是它需要你付出很多来赢得信任，你要使正在消化他们现在要依靠别人来过活这一事实的老人保持心理上的稳定。”这份工作的工资并不高，一小时大概是10美元，如果去单个客户的家中上门服务一小时则可挣到15美元。

More jobs are better than fewer jobs - particularly for those who would otherwise be unemployed. But Mr. Autor cautions: 'These aren't going to be high-paying jobs because the skills are quite generic. Anyone can be productive at them in the next day or two. If you had to choose which jobs you'd want to go away, you'd pick these low-wage jobs, not the middle-skill ones.'

工作机会增加总比工作机会减少要好，对于那些要不然就会失业的人来说尤为如此。但是，奥托尔提醒道，“这些都不是工资高的岗位，因为它们涉及的技能都是相当通用的，任何人做这些工作一两天之后都能非常熟练掌握。如果你必须选择你不想做哪些工作，你会选那些工资低的而不是中等技能的工作。”

Luis Mejia, 42, never finished high school, but once made about $80,000 a year at a construction company, operating a vehicle that loads heavy materials onto trucks. That job evaporated with the real-estate bust. 'I had a lot of experience, so I thought it would be easy to find the same work, but nobody was hiring,' he said.

42岁的路易斯•梅吉亚(Luis Mejia)高中都没有读完，但他以前在一家建筑公司工作时曾经能挣到一年80,000美元左右，工作内容就是操作一个将重物装上卡车的工具。后来，这个工作连同房地产市场的泡沫一起蒸发了。梅吉亚说，“我有非常丰富的经验，所以当初我认为找份同样的工作会比较容易，但是没有公司有这样的岗位招人。”

After substantial reluctance, Mr. Mejia and his wife, Margarita, turned to cleaning houses. 'To be honest, when I started doing this, I didn't like it. I was doing it because I had no choice,' he says.

在极其不情愿地挣扎了一番之后，梅吉亚和妻子玛格丽塔(Margarita)干起了房屋清洁的工作。梅吉亚说，“说实话，开始做这份工作时，我并不喜欢它，做这工作是因为我没有选择。”

Now their business, Margarita's Cleaning Services, cleans 45 to 50 houses a month and has hired its first employee. Rising around 6 a.m. and taking their 16-year-old to school before work, the couple cleans three or four houses a day, six days a week. They charge $80 for a two-bedroom house and $250 for bigger ones. The couple earns about $50,000 a year now, around 60% of Mr. Mejia's previous salary.

如今他们夫妻二人有了自己的小公司──“玛格丽塔清洁服务公司”(Margarita's Cleaning Services)，每个月要打扫45至50套房子，他们还雇佣了自己的第一名员工。他们大概在早晨六点起床，把16岁的孩子送去上学后便开始工作。他们夫妻二人每天要清洁三四套房子，一周工作六天时间。他们对一套两居室房子的收费是80美元，面积更大的则要收取250美元。现在他们一年挣50,000美元左右，大约只有梅吉亚以前收入的60%。

The payrolls of brand-name U.S. corporations trace the same pattern: growing workforces in companies that specialize in personal services of all sorts and a decrease in those that have more routine occupations.

不仅如此，美国知名企业的员工名单也体现出了同样的趋势，专门从事各种类型的个人服务工作的企业的员工人数在增加，而常规行业岗位较多的企业的员工人数则在减少。

Since 2007, Panera Bread Co., a cafe chain, has increased its U.S. workforce by 22,000 jobs, a 50% increase. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. a fast-food outfit, has added 12,000, a 63% increase. The four largest publicly traded home-health agencies have added 22,000 workers, up 84%.

自2007年以来，连锁咖啡店Panera Bread在美国增加了22,000个工作岗位，增幅为50%。快餐店Chipotle Mexican Grill增加了12,000个岗位，增幅达63%。此外，美国最大的四家上市家庭保健机构增聘了22,000名员工，增幅高达84%。

In contrast, auto maker Ford Motor Co.'s North American payrolls declined by 19,000, or 20%; manufacturer General Electric Co.'s U.S. workforce declined by 24,000, or 15%, and health insurer Aetna Inc.'s by 2,200, or 6%.

相比之下，汽车制造商福特(Ford Motor Co.)北美区的员工数量减少了19,000人，减幅达20%。此外，制造行业的通用电气公司(General Electric Co.)的美国员工人数则减少了24,000人，比例达15%，医疗保险商Aetna的这个数字达2,200人，减幅达6%。

Before the recession, when unemployment was low and workers relatively scarce, wages for personal-service workers rose while wages for middle-skill jobs sagged. Mr. Autor and colleague David Dorn found a 16% increase in inflation-adjusted average hourly wages between 1980 and 2005 for these service workers and a 30% increase for the professionals, managers and upper-end finance workers. That contrasts with a 6% increase for machine operators and assemblers and a 4% decline for production and craft workers.

在经济发生衰退之前，失业率较低而且从业人员数量相对比较少，私人服务业员工的工资有所上升，而中等技能岗位的薪资则在下降。奥托尔及其同事戴维•多恩(David Dorn)发现，在1980年至2005年期间，这些服务行业的员工的平均时薪经通胀调整后上升了16%，专业人士、管理人员和高端金融业从业人员的薪资上升了30%，而机器操作员、装配工的薪资水平仅上升了6%，而从事生产和手工活的工人的工资更是降低了4%。

But the subsequent recession and sluggish recovery produced a glut of workers for these relatively low-skill, personal-service jobs; wages have been depressed as a consequence, Mr. Autor says. And incomes of barbers and some other personal-care workers were squeezed during the recession and immediately after the recession when many consumers cut back spending on easy-to-skip services such as dining out or delayed getting their hair cut.

然而，奥托尔还指出，后来发生的经济衰退和疲软的经济复苏导致这些技能相对较低的个人服务业的员工供大于求，其薪资水平也因此受到抑制。理发师和其他一些个人护理业员工的收入在衰退期间也受到挤压，在经济衰退结束不久之后，许多消费者削减了可以忽略不做或少做的服务方面的开支，例如少去餐馆吃饭或者是延长每次理发的间隔时间。

Regina Gilbert, 46, a mother of two, once made $48,000 doing clerical work in New York City's Administration for Children's Services, but that job disappeared after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks when the city turned to outside contractors to save money. She relied on unemployment benefits as long as she could and then performed odd jobs for years.

里吉娜•吉尔伯特(Regina Gilbert)今年46岁，是两个孩子的妈妈。她曾经在纽约市的儿童服务管理局(Administration for Children's Services)做文书工作，年薪为48,000美元。但是，在2001年“9•11”恐怖袭击事件发生之后，纽约市便将这些服务转给外部承包商以节省资金，吉尔伯特的这个岗位也因此消失。她依靠领取尽可能长时间的失业救济金生活，后来干了几年的零工。

Now she's working again - checking boarding passes at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport and making $7.25 an hour without health benefits. Commuting from Brooklyn takes her two hours a day, and the transportation costs take a significant slice out of her take-home pay.

现在她已重新开始工作──在纽约的肯尼迪国际机场(John F. Kennedy International Airport)检查登机牌，工资是7.25美元一小时，而且没有医疗保险。每天从布鲁克林乘车去上班需要两个小时，交通费占了她税后收入的很大一部分。

'It is fulfilling,' she says, 'but every day I look at the money I make and the agony that I'm going through. I'm standing on my feet all day.'

她说，“这份工作让人觉得充实，但是看看我每天挣的这点钱和我受的苦吧。我（上班时）一整天都要站着。”