经济学家担忧中国信贷增长

There is no question that China significantly increased the leverage in its economy to counter the global financial crisis. A surge in credit was the single most important part of the government's vaunted stimulus programme: new lending by state-owned banks from 2008-10 was about 60 percent of gross domestic product.

毫无疑问，为了应对全球金融危机，中国大幅提高了经济中的杠杆。信贷激增构成了政府高调刺激方案的最重要组成部分：2008年到2010年，国有银行新增贷款约为国内生产总值(GDP)的60%。

Some economists say they are less concerned about how much leverage China has than at the speed of the rise in China's leverage.

一些经济学家表示，相比中国的杠杆规模，他们更加担忧的是中国杠杆增加的速度。

UBS economist Wang Tao has noted that an increase of 40 percentage points in a country's credit-to-GDP ratio over five years correlates very well with financial crises. In China, there has been an increase of 40 percentage points in the past three years alone.

瑞银(UBS)经济学家汪涛指出，一个国家的信贷与GDP比率在五年之内增长40个百分点，通常与金融危机有很大关联。而在中国，仅过去三年这一比率就增长了40个百分点。

This "needs to stop soon and reverse in the coming few years," she says. For the government to follow a path of sustainable growth, it should ensure that banking sector credit grows by less than nominal GDP, she adds.

她说："未来几年，这种趋势需要立即停止并有所逆转。"她接着指出，政府如果要走上可持续发展道路，就应该确保银行信贷增长低于名义GDP增速。

Put another way, China still has scope to lever up more if it so chooses – but such a choice could lead to big trouble down the road.

换句话说，中国仍然有提高杠杆的空间，如果它要做如是选择的话，但这样的选择可能会在未来带来大麻烦。

For much of this year, even as signs of an economic slowdown mounted, Beijing opted for the prudent course and continued its moderate monetary tightening, despite howls of protest from real estate developers and investors.

即使经济放缓迹象增多，今年大部分时候中国政府还是走谨慎道路，继续其适度紧缩的货币政策，尽管房地产开发商和投资者表达了强烈的不满。

But over the past month, it has again prodded banks to ramp up their lending, a move which is eerily reminiscent of the credit spree that it is just now coming down from.

但在过去的一个月，中国政府再次敦促银行增加信贷，此举令人恐惧地联想到其刚刚走出的"信贷狂欢"。

Worried by this possibility, economists have taken to reminding Beijing that it can easily afford a traditional fiscal boost (for example, government deficit spending on initiatives such as health and education) and that it must resist the easy solution of simply calling on the country's banks to pump out credit.

出于对这种可能性的担忧，经济学家提醒中国政府，完全可以采取传统的财政刺激政策（比如政府在医疗和教育方面的赤字支出），而且，一定不能仅仅通过促使本国银行增加信贷来解决问题。

"China again has space for a forceful response if necessary, but, this time, on-budget fiscal stimulus should be the main line of defense," the International Monetary Fund has warned.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)警示："中国仍然有在必要情况下采取有力应对措施的空间，但这一次，预算内的财政刺激举措应该是主要的防护措施。"