蒙古国大举进入国际资本市场

Mongolia, a country that has been rescued five times in 22 years by the International Monetary Fund, is seeking to raise as much $1.5 billion in its first government bond offering, an amount equal to nearly one-fifth of the size of its economy.

22年间被国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund，简称IMF)救过五次的蒙古正在谋求发行第一批政府债，最高融资15亿美元，这一数字大约相当于蒙古经济规模的五分之一。

It is as if the U.S. government tried to borrow $2.5 trillion in one bite.

这就好比美国政府一口气借款2.5万亿美元。

Mongolian officials, who have been visiting investors this week to drum up demand, are seeking to sell a five-year bond with a yield of 4.125% to 4.25% and a 10-year bond that will yield 5.125% to 5.25%, according to bankers involved in the deal. The bonds will be denominated in dollars, and selling was set to begin as early as Wednesday, they said.

为吸引需求，蒙古官员这个星期一直在走访投资者。据参与发行的银行家说，他们希望发行一只收益率为4.125%到4.25%的五年期债券和一只收益率在5.125%到5.25%之间的10年期债券。他们说，两只债券将以美元计价，按计划最早将在下周三开始销售。

'This is a big-bang entry into global capital markets,' says Jan Dehn, co-head of research for Ashmore Investment in London, which manages $68 billion and was an early lender to Mongolia's government. Ashmore's funds plan to buy the bond.

伦敦安石投资管理有限公司(Ashmore Investment)研究部联席负责人德恩(Jan Dehn)说，这标志着蒙古破天荒地进入了国际资本市常安石投资管理着680亿美元的资产，是最早为蒙古政府提供贷款的公司之一，它旗下的基金打算买进蒙古债券。

Other bond investors also appear to be interested in buying, a sign of the hunger among global bond buyers for any investment that offers a relatively high yield.

其他债券投资者似乎也有兴趣买进。可见只要是收益率相对较高的产品，国际债券投资者都有着强烈的需求。

Buyers would be flying in the face of nagging worries about whether Mongolia, a country wedged between China and Russia, is a good investment. The nation's foreign-exchange reserves are shrinking, inflation is at double digits and the stock market has fallen 30% this year. The government also has made several decisions seen as unfriendly to business.

对投资者而言，此时仍有一种担忧挥之不去：投资夹在中国和俄罗斯中间的蒙古是否划算？蒙古的外汇储备正在萎缩，通胀率达到两位数，股市今年下跌了30%。另外政府的好几项决策都被认为不利于企业界。

Best known for its horse-filled steppes and its founding father, Genghis Khan, Mongolia was the emerging-market world's wunderkind just a few years ago. Gross domestic product grew a blistering 17% to $8.6 billion in 2011, just two years after the country needed a loan from the IMF to bailout its banking system.

蒙古最有名的就是骏马奔驰的大草原和一代天骄成吉思汗。仅数年之前，它成为新兴市场中间的“少年才俊。2011年国内生产总值猛增17%，达到86亿美元，而在此两年之前，为救助银行系统，蒙古还不得不接受IMF的一笔贷款。

'Mongolia was the hot place to be two to three years ago,' says Laurent Ettedgui, a portfolio manager at Quam Asset Management in Hong Kong. While many investors are now looking at other markets, he says, enough will be willing to look past the country's problems to focus on Mongolia's mineral riches and proximity to China.

香港华富嘉洛资产管理(Quam Asset Management)基金经理埃泰德吉(Laurent Ettedgui)说，两三年前蒙古是一个热门，现在虽然很多投资者都在关注其他市场，但会有足够多的人愿意略过蒙古存在的问题，把注意力放在它的丰富矿产及与中国接壤这一地理条件上。

'People will be hungry, less than before, but you will have the big players taking part,' he says.

他说，人们的需求会很大，虽然不及以往，但会有重要角色参与。

Emerging-market countries have issued a record $85 billion in sovereign debt in 2012, according to data firm Dealogic. Zambia and Bolivia also became first time issuers this year.

数据公司Dealogic的数据显示，2012年新兴市场国家发行主权债850亿美元，创下纪录。赞比亚和玻利维亚今年也发行了第一批债券。

The money from the Mongolia bond would go to pay for roads, mining investment and electricity production, according to a presentation reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

据《华尔街日报》看过的一份演示文档，蒙古发行债券筹集的资金将用于修建道路、投资矿产和发电。

Investors already have shown a strong appetite for Mongolian debt. The country's state-owned development bank sold $580 million of bonds in March in an offering that was oversubscribed by 10 times. The bond, which is backed by the government, has an interest rate of 5.75%, but demand has driven up prices and pushed down the yield to 4.5% in the secondary market.

投资者之前已对蒙古债券显示出强烈兴趣。蒙古的国有开发银行在今年3月份发行5.8亿美元的债券，超额申购10倍。这只债券有政府支持，利息为5.75%，但旺盛的需求抬高了它的价格，将其二级市场收益率压低至4.25%。

By comparison, Italy's benchmark 10-year bond trades with a yield of about 4.75%. Zambia's 10-year bond, sold in September, yields 5.625% and Bolivia's 10-year bond sold in October, yields 4.875%.

相比之下，作为基准的意大利10年期国债的收益率约为4.75%。今年9月发行的赞比亚10年期国债的收益率为5.625%，今年10月发行的玻利维亚10年期国债的收益率为4.875%。

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services rates Mongolia BB-, a non-investment grade, or junk rating, similar to Bangladesh and Georgia. Moody's Investors Service rates Mongolia B1, similar to Senegal and Kenya.

标准普尔评级服务(Standard & Poor's Ratings Services)将蒙古的主权信用评级定为BB-，为非投资级或垃圾级，和孟加拉国与格鲁吉亚处于同一级别。穆迪投资者服务公司则将蒙古的主权评级定为B1，与塞内加尔和肯尼亚处于同一级别。

The attraction of Mongolia is that it is rich in natural resources such as copper, uranium and coal. The country's biggest copper mine, owned by Rio Tinto PLC and the Mongolian government, is set to start producing next year. Analysts predict Mongolia will be the world's second-largest exporter of copper after Chile in coming years, generating tax revenue to support bond payments.

蒙古的吸引力在于它有丰富的天然资源，如铜、铀和煤炭。该国最大的铜矿由力拓(Rio Tinto PLC)和蒙古政府共同所有，定于明年开始生产。分析人士预测，未来几年蒙古将成为全球第二大铜出口国，仅次于智利，由此产生的税收可以用于偿还债务。

But the country has run into unanticipated speed bumps. Growth is expected to 'slow' to 12.7% this year, according to the IMF. The government's deficit is expected to rise to almost $650 million, or 7% of GDP.

但蒙古经济却出现了意想不到的减速。据IMF预计，其经济增速今年将降至12.7%。蒙古政府赤字预计将升至约6.5亿美元，约占其GDP的7%。

Falling global commodity prices have hit Mongolia's mining industry hard. Meantime, government spending increased 42% in the first eight months of the year, according to the World Bank. To cover a drop in tax receipts, the government borrowed $145 million from the central bank, while giving more than 50% pay increases to civil servants. Inflation is running at 15%.

全球大宗商品价格下跌令蒙古采矿业深受冲击。与此同时，据世界银行(World Bank)的数据，蒙古政府支出今年头八个月增加了42%。为了弥补税收收入的下降，蒙古政府向蒙古央行借款1.45亿美元，同时又给该国公务员加薪逾50%。蒙古目前通货膨胀率已高达15%。

Mongolia is 'prone to boom-bust cycles,' says Tim Condon, economist for ING. The question for investors is whether they can 'be confident that it won't just be a two-to-three-year run of growth and then another IMF program,' he says.

荷兰国际集团(ING)的经济学家康迪天(Tim Condon)说，蒙古容易出现繁荣-衰退的交替周期。他说投资者面临的问题是：是否有信心相信蒙古经济不会在繁荣了两三年之后又陷入需要IMF救助的境地。

A weakening currency could also hamper Mongolia's ability to pay back the bond. The Mongolian central bank has spent $800 million in currency markets to prevent the togrog from losing value against the dollar. Net currency reserves have dropped to $1.4 billion, a two-year low, according to the IMF.

货币贬值可能也会影响蒙古偿还债务的能力。蒙古央行已经在货币市场上投入了8亿美元以防止图格里克兑美元贬值。据IMF介绍，蒙古外汇储备净额下降至14亿美元，为两年来的最低点。

Government moves have soured the foreign-investment climate. Foreign direct investment is expected to be around $3 billion this year, said a Mongolian government official, down from $4.6 billion last year.

蒙古政府出台的多种举措恶化了外商投资环境。蒙古政府一位官员说，蒙古今年接受的外商直接投资预计约为30亿美元，低于去年46亿美元的水平。

The government effectively blocked an attempted takeover of a major Mongolia coal producer by a Chinese state-owned enterprise. The company, Rio Tinto-controlled SouthGobi Resources Ltd., had its mining license suspended for several months, and an Australian lawyer for the company is being prevented from leaving the country as part of a corruption investigation. SouthGobi has said no charges have been filed and that it is cooperating with authorities.

蒙古政府有效阻止了一家中国国有企业企图收购蒙古一家大型煤炭生产商的行为。这家煤炭生产商时间哦力拓控制的南戈壁资源有限公司(SouthGobi Resources Ltd.)，该公司采矿许可证已被吊销数月之久。由于一宗腐败调查，为该公司服务的一名澳大利亚律师被禁止离开该国。南戈壁资源有限公司说，目前没有受到任何指控，公司正在和有关部门合作。

Another concern: In May, Mongolia's parliament changed the foreign-investment law, requiring foreigners to get cabinet approval for small projects and parliamentary approval for big ones in mining and other key sectors.

另一个引人关注的问题：今年5月，蒙古议会改变了外国投资法。新法规定，在采矿等重要领域，外商投资小型项目必须获得内阁批准，投资大型项目必须获得议会批准。