社会观察:中国楼市冷与热

A BMW is hardly a sign of that times are tough. But in China, one Wenzhou property developer offered a free German-made car to would-be buyers to boost sales. China’s property boom and bust is one of the most debated topics in the world. Most observers agree that a slowdown, led by a government determined to stop the market getting out of control, is under way. Yet the stocks and bonds of many of the companies exposed are booming. 我们很难把宝马(BMW)车与不景气联系在一起。但在中国，温州一家房地产开发商却推出了“买房送宝马”的促销活动。中国房地产市场是将继续繁荣还是将走向萧条，这是世人议论最多的话题之一。多数观察人士都认为，在中国政府防止市场失控的决心的驱动下，房地产市场的增长正在减速。然而，许多房地产企业的股票和债券都涨势良好。

Shares of the five biggest Hong Kong-listed, China-domiciled developers by market capitalisation have jumped by an average 70 per cent since the beginning of October — shortly before the BMWs were thrown in. Their bonds, including those of Agile Property and Evergrande, have zoomed from trading at less than three-quarters of face value to nearly par. Agile is poised to sell $500m in new bonds this week at prices similar to those it paid in 2010. And yet China’s property market is clearly weakening. China Vanke, a domestically-listed sector bellwether, this month said contracted sales for the first two months of 2017 were down 27 per cent from last year. 去年10月初（“买房送宝马”活动推出前不久）以来，在香港上市的五大（以市值计）内地开发商的股价平均累计上涨了70%。五大开发商——包括雅居乐(Agile Property)和恒大地产(Evergrande)——的债券价格已从不到票面价格的四分之三骤升至接近票面价格。雅居乐计划在本周发行5亿美元新债，发行价格将与2010年的价格差不多。尽管如此，中国房地产市场走弱的势头仍很明显。在内地上市的万科（Vanke，地产板块领头羊）本月表示，今年头两个月的销售额同比下降了27%。

Some of the rally has been of the relief variety. Investors suddenly stampeded for the exits last summer yet the property market did not completely crash. And companies have also been preparing for the worst: many of them used buoyant markets early last year to refinance debt early, easing near-term strains. In the slump that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers, net debt averaged 4 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the Hong Kong-listed groups. Now, that ratio is a far more manageable 2 times. 上述回升在某种程度上可视为触底反弹。去年夏天，投资者突然疯狂离场，但房地产市场并未完全崩盘。房地产企业也一直在做最坏的打算：去年早些时候，许多房企利用市场行情看涨之机提前对债券进行了再融资，以减轻近期的资金压力。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭后的萧条期，在港上市内地房企的净债务平均为税息折旧及摊销前利润的(EBITDA)的四倍；如今，这一比例已降为两倍，财务状况可控程度大大提高。

The rally has not been even, however. Shares of the smallest developers have risen by an average of just 6 per cent — a figure that covers performances ranging from a one-fifth fall to a two-fifths gain — as their big rivals uniformly leapt. A relief rally is one thing. But those new BMW owners have plenty of justification for still feeling nervous behind the wheel. 不过，上述回升并不均衡。小开发商的股价平均仅上涨6%（表现最差的股票价格下跌了五分之一，最好的上涨了五分之二），大开发商的股价则全部大幅上涨。尽管出现了反弹式回升，但那些宝马车的新主人们还是有很多理由继续感到不安。