浑水做空奥兰有戏吗？

What in the world of cocoa, coffee, cotton and cashews is Carson Block up to regarding Olam? One week after the short seller questioned the Singaporean commodity trader’s accounting and debt burden, no explanation has materialised and the shares are off just 5 per cent. Was the timing of the allegations poor or is this unusual shorting strategy yet to play out? Regardless of what comes next, leaving at least five trading days between the claims and any proof is too long.

在可可、咖啡、棉花和腰果的世界，卡森·布洛克(Carson Block)会怎么看待奥兰(Olam)公司？在质疑这家新加坡大宗商品交易商的会计及债务负担问题一周后，这位做空者没有做出任何具体的解释，而奥兰公司的股价也只下跌了5%。是这次指控的时机不对，还是说本次异乎寻常的做空策略未完待续？不论他之后会提出什么，在做出指控超过五个交易日后才提出证据未免太久了。

Mr Block’s approach to Olam is a break from his norm. Previously, attacks through his Muddy Waters outfit have been launched alongside long public reports that allege fraud. But last week’s presentation is not public and there is as yet no report. And Mr Block cannot have been unaware of his audience: the Ira Sohn conferences attract big investor and media coverage. Olam represents not only a new approach by Mr Block but also a different type of target. Muddy Waters claims expertise in Chinese companies. Yet Olam is a Singapore blue-chip of which Temasek, the state investment agency, holds a sixth.

布洛克做空奥兰公司的方式与以往有很大不同。过去，由他的浑水公司(Muddy Waters)发起的攻击总是伴随着冗长的公开报告，指控对方存在欺诈行为。而上周的讲话并未公开，迄今也没有任何书面报告出炉。再者，布洛克不可能不知道他的听众都是些什么人——Ira Sohn投资者大会吸引的正是大投资者和媒体报道。布洛克这次不仅采用了一种新的方法，就连目标类型也有别于以往。浑水公司一向善于对中国公司出手，而奥兰公司却是一支新加坡蓝筹股，其六分之一的股份由新加坡政府投资机构淡马锡(Temasek)持有。

The shorts are certainly primed: short positions in Olam are double their levels earlier this year and represent almost all the stock that can be borrowed, according to Markit, or more than 13 per cent of the shares in total. That is twice as much as the city state’s next most shorted stock. Perhaps Mr Block has devised a form of market rope-a-dope – Olam has denied his claims, although it does not know the full detail of them – and he may be just warming up. Regulators might have something to say about that.

这次做空无疑是有备而来：根据Markit的数据，针对奥兰公司的空头头寸规模增长到今年早些时候的两倍，总计占了奥兰公司超过13%的股份，这差不多包括了可以拆借的所有股票。奥兰因此成为新加坡被做空力度最大的股票，并且空头规模为排名第二的股票的两倍。也许布洛克迄今的行为只是热身，而一切都是他设计的在市场中以逸待劳的办法——奥兰公司没有了解布洛克所说的全部细节就否认了他的指控。对此监管机构也许能说出一些内情。

Shorts play a valuable role, all the more so when they make their issues public. But hit-and-runs such as Mr Block’s attack so far do not serve any wider purpose – and this one does not seem to have served his followers well, either.

做空还是很有价值的，尤其是如果它们能让问题公开化的话。不过布洛克迄今打了就跑的做法起不到大的作用，这一次攻击中他的追随者看来也没占到什么便宜。