日韩大选的区别

South Korean leadership elections are held every five years. Japanese ones come around about every five minutes. This month, the two arch rivals – Asia’s second and fourth-largest economies – will pick a new leader within three days of each other.

韩国每五年举行一次大眩日本差不多每五分钟举行一次。本月，这两大主要竞争对手（分别为亚洲第二大和第四大经济体）都将选举出新的领导人，选举日期前后相隔仅三天。

Japan has had so many prime ministers in recent years that almost everyone you can think of has already had a go. Shinzo Abe, who had a brief turn in 2006 – since when no fewer than five prime ministers have served – is very likely to get a second bite at the cherry. His election would mean a lurch to the right of a Japan increasingly fearful of a rising China. It would also mean the comeback of the Liberal Democratic party after a three-year absence.

日本近年来出过如此多位首相，以至于所有你能想到的人几乎都已经当过一次首相了。安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)曾在2006年短暂地出任首相，自那以后，日本已产生过至少5位首相。这次他可能会再度登上首相宝座。如果安倍晋三当选，可能意味着日本会突然转向右翼。日本的右翼势力对中国的崛起感到日益担忧。安倍晋三当选也将意味着自民党(LDP)在下野三年后再次执政。

South Koreans, meanwhile, must choose between Park Geun-hye on the right and Moon Jae-in on the left. The two are running neck and neck following the withdrawal of independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, a popular software entrepreneur who pulled out last month to the dismay of many young voters who had been invigorated by his unconventional campaign.

与此同时，韩国将在右翼的朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)和左翼的文在寅(Moon Jae-in)两人间做出选择。独立候选人、支持率很高的软件企业家安哲秀(Ahn Cheol-soo)上月退选，如今只剩朴槿惠和文在寅两人一决高下。安哲秀退选让许多年轻选民感到失望，他组织的别出心裁的竞选活动曾让这些选民耳目一新。

There are some similarities between the elections in two of Asia’s most democratic nations, especially when you compare them with the stage-managed coronation of Xi Jinping as China’s leader, let alone the hereditary succession of Kim Jong-eun in North Korea. In both, independent candidates will have played an important – if ultimately not a decisive – role. Mr Ahn, a man with no political experience, represented a rejection of the two main political wings that have slugged it out since South Korea became democratic in 1987. In Japan, the popularity of Shintaro Ishihara, the maverick rightwing governor of Tokyo, and Toru Hashimoto, the outspoken mayor of Osaka, both represent a rejection of the mainstream politicians who have so failed Japan in the past 20 years. Their newly combined Japan Restoration party deliberately alludes to the Meiji Restoration, conjuring up prouder times.

日本和韩国是亚洲两个民主程度最高的国家。两国的大选有一些相似之处，特别是与中国相比——习近平在周密的安排下登上最高领导人之位，更不用提与朝鲜相比——金正恩(Kim Jong-eun)子承父业、坐上了最高领导人的宝座。在日本和韩国的大选中，独立参选人都将被证明发挥了重要的作用，即便最终可能不会当眩毫无政治经验的安哲秀支持率很高，代表了选民对两大主要政党的否定，这两大政党自韩国1987年民主化以来一直轮流执政。在日本，特立独行的右翼人物、前东京都知事石原慎太郎(Shintaro Ishihara)和率性直言的大阪市长桥下彻(Toru Hashimoto)支持率很高，也代表了日本民众对主流政治人物的否定，这些主流政治人物在过去二十年间太让日本民众失望了。石原慎太郎和桥下彻联合组建的新政党名叫“日本维新会(Japan Restoration party)，它在名称上特意模仿“明治维新(Meiji Restoration)，意在让日本民众回想起那个辉煌的时代。

Yet it is the differences between the two elections that are more striking. Japan’s frustration with politics as normal has produced a third force on the right. Mr Ahn, South Korea’s third force, was a more progressive, forward-looking figure. Even the conservative Ms Park has had to adopt some of the left’s language, favouring more equitable distribution of wealth and an economy less beholden to the chaebol family-owned conglomerates that have steered the country’s remarkable economic transformation.

然而，更引人注目的是日韩两国大选的不同之处。日本民众对传统政治圈的失望催生了一股右翼的第三极力量。韩国的第三极力量安哲秀则是一个更进步、更能代表未来的形象。即便是比较保守的朴槿惠也不得不采纳一些左翼的言论，赞成更公平地分配财富，减轻韩国经济对那些家族制“财阀(chaebol)的依赖。“财阀曾带领韩国实现了令人瞩目的经济转型。

In Japan, there is a harking back to the old days – the very old days in the case of the Japan Restoration party with its echoes of the 19th century. Mr Abe has never seen the need to distance himself from his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, who, as part of Tojo’s wartime cabinet, had once been considered a war criminal but who was rehabilitated to such an extent he became prime minister in the late 1950s.

在日本，有一种怀旧情绪——“日本维新党怀念的甚至是古老的19世纪。安倍晋三从不觉得自己有必要与外祖父岸信介(Nobusuke Kishi)划清界限。岸信介曾在东条英机(Tojo)战时内阁任职，一度被定为战争嫌疑犯，但后来完全恢复名誉，甚至在上世纪50年代后期当上了日本首相。

In South Korea, conversely, Ms Park has had to make a show of distancing herself from her father, Park Chung-hee, who seized power in a military coup in 1961 and remained in office until his assassination in 1979. Her apology for human rights abuses during his dictatorship, in the context of Korea’s tradition of filial piety, was described by one observer as the (politically necessary) equivalent of “spitting on his grave.

韩国的情况恰恰相反。朴槿惠迫于形势与父亲朴正熙(Park Chung-hee)划清了界限。朴正熙1961年通过发动军事政变上台，一直执政到1979年遇刺。朴槿惠已就其父在独裁统治期间的侵犯人权行为公开道歉。一名观察人士称，在尊崇孝道的韩国，朴槿惠此举无异于（有其政治必要性） “向父亲的坟墓吐口水。

South Korea, not yet as rich as Japan, feels the need to forge ahead. Japan, frustrated with the present and fearful of the future, is tempted to look back. Even if Koreans choose Ms Park, in some ways a throwback, they will have elected the country’s first female leader, something Japan has never managed.

韩国的富裕程度虽然还不如日本，但仍感到必须锐意前行。日本对现状感到失望，对未来感到恐惧，因此有一种往回看的冲动。即便韩国人选择朴槿惠，从某种角度来看是个倒退，但从另一个角度来看，这也意味着韩国选出了该国历史上第一位女性领导人，这是日本从未实现的一种进步。

South Korea is, to some extent, treading a path Japan has already followed. Japan, too, once it had caught up with western living standards in the 1980s, began to worry about how to wean itself off an export-dependent model in which the interests of consumers were sacrificed to those of Japan Inc. It never really managed that transition – to its continuing cost. Now South Koreans worry that the chaebol are too strong to the detriment of both ordinary workers and to the development of an economy with more strings to its bow. The policy response to that issue will go a long way in determining Korea’s economic course for the next generation.

韩国在某种程度上是在重复日本走过的路。上世纪80年代，日本在生活水平上赶上西方后，也曾开始担心如何摆脱依赖出口的经济发展模式，在这种模式下，为了日本经济的整体利益，消费者的利益被牺牲。日本始终未能真正完成经济的转型，至今仍在为此付出代价。如今，韩国担心“财阀过于强大，既损害普通劳动者的利益，也妨碍韩国经济“多条腿走路。针对这个问题的政策回应将影响深远，决定韩国下一代人的经济发展轨迹。

If Korea is concerned about how to spread wealth more evenly, Japan is primarily worried about producing growth of any kind. Mr Abe has adopted semi-radical ideas on monetary policy designed to force the central bank to engineer the mild inflation that some economists believe could lift Japan off the rocks.

如果说韩国关心的是如何更加平均地分配财富，那么日本主要担心的则是如何实现经济增长。安倍晋三对货币政策有一些比较极端的想法，希望迫使央行催生温和的通胀，一些经济学家认为，温和的通胀能够让日本经济摆脱停滞不前的局面。

Finally, foreign policy plays a larger role in Japan’s election. South Korea’s poll will not be determined by the candidates’ policies towards Pyongyang. Japan’s contest, conversely, is being shaped by Beijing, whose more assertive stance over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands is nudging the Japanese to the right.

最后，外交政策在日本大选中扮演着更重大的角色。韩国的民调结果不会受候选人对朝鲜政府的政策左右。与韩国相反，日本的选情则受到中国政府的影响。中国政府对尖阁诸岛/钓鱼岛的立场转向强硬，正将日本推向右翼。

Some way behind that as a foreign policy issue is whether or not Japan should join the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a high level proto-trade group that some think could help revive Japan’s industrial competitiveness. Mr Abe is reluctant to commit for fear of offending the farmers who support his party.

由此引出的另一个外交政策问题是，日本应不应该加入“跨太平洋伙伴关系(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)。跨太平洋伙伴关系是一个高级别的类贸易集团，一些人认为，这个集团可以帮助日本恢复工业竞争力。安倍晋三不愿意在这个问题上做出承诺，因为担心激怒那些支持自民党的农场主。

Neither Japan nor Korea figures much as an issue in each other’s election. But rivalry and suspicion, a hangover from Japan’s brutal 35-year occupation of Korea, still runs deep. It is manifested in territorial and historical disputes. Mr Moon’s party is less willing than Ms Park’s to let bygones be bygones. Mr Abe sees little to apologise for in Japan’s history. If both Mr Moon and Mr Abe are elected, trouble may flare again.

日本和韩国在对方的大选中都不是主要问题。但两国之间仍存在激烈的竞争和很深的猜疑，这是日本对韩国35年占领期间暴行的后遗症。两国之间的这种关系也反映在一些领土和历史纠纷上。相比于朴槿惠，文在寅对往事的态度更加不宽容。安倍晋三很少流露出对日本历史的歉意。如果文在寅和安倍晋三分别当选韩国和日本的领导人，那么或许会有麻烦。