价值投资者看好日本商业地产

When you ask a fund manager in Asia where to find the standout investment opportunity, there is one answer you never expect: Japan.

在亚洲，如果你问一名基金经理，到哪里才能找到出色的投资机会，有一个答案你绝对想不到：日本。

But for John Saunders, who runs the Asian end of MGPA, an $11bn property-focused private equity firm, the land of the rising sun presents golden opportunities – and, perversely, it is the country’s shrinking economy that is the reason.

但对于麦格理环球房地产投资顾问(MGPA)亚洲业务的主管约翰·桑德尔斯(John Saunders)而言，这个日出之国提供了绝好的机会，反常的是，其原因在于该国日益收缩的经济。MGPA是一家专注于房地产领域的私募股权投资(PE)公司，资产管理规模为110亿美元。

“Japanese yields are phenomenally high, he says. “People have got so used to falling rents, so they have been driving yields higher. The whole market is priced very, very cheaply, it needs a catalyst to spark a change in perceptions. I think that will come with a bit of recovery in Tokyo – but only in Tokyo.

“日本地产领域的收益率非常高，他表示，“人们对于租金下滑已经习以为常，因此他们一直在推高收益率。整个市场的定价非常低，这需要一种催化剂来促成观念上的转变。我认为，随之而来的将是东京楼市的略微回暖，但只是东京。

Capitalisation rates – which are more or less interchangeable with yields – for Tokyo office investments are as high as 8 or 9 per cent, he says. Financing costs from Japan’s highly liquid banks are also extremely cheap and unlikely to rise any time soon.

他表示，东京写字楼投资的资本化率——从某种程度上来说可与收益率互换——高达8%或9%。来自流动性充足的日本国内银行的融资也极其便宜，而且这种融资成本短期内不太可能上涨。

Just four hours flight from Tokyo, Hong Kong is a world away in property terms. Investors, analysts and others are fretting about the potential for a dangerous bubble. Hot money from the US central bank’s quantitative easing programme looks like flowing increasingly towards the local commercial sector at a time when supply is incredibly tight and yields are already at record lows of about 3 per cent for office space.

就在距离东京4个小时航程以外的香港，这里的房地产市场却是另一番景象。投资者、分析师以及其他人都在担心出现一轮危险的泡沫的可能性。在美联储(Fed)定量宽松计划刺激下的热钱，看上去正越来越多地流向香港商业地产领域，而当前该领域的供应极其紧张，写字楼收益率已处于约3%的历史低位。

Mr Saunders’ own modest office in the city suggests a man focused on finding value. Small and plainly decorated, it is on the lower floors at the back of a slick eight-year-old steel and glass tower in central Hong Kong. His vista is dominated by the nearby windows of older residential blocks. Higher up on the other side of Three Pacific Place, he would have grand views out to Victoria Harbour – but with a rental bill to match.

桑德尔斯自己在香港的办公室不算很大，这表明他重视价值发现。这间办公室所处楼层较低，面积很小，装修朴素，位于香港中部一栋已建成8年、外形时尚的钢与玻璃结构的大厦的后面。视野之内是附近年代较老的住宅楼的窗户。如果是在太古广场3座( Three Pacific Place)另一侧的高层，他就可以饱览维多利亚港，但租金也非同一般。

“In Hong Kong, I’m a seller right now, he says. “In fact, I’ve got nothing left. Partly it is because people are paying sub-4 per cent yields and partly it is because I don’t see where the rental growth can come from.

“在香港，我现在是个卖家，他表示，“实际上，我什么都没得到。一部分原因是这里的收益率低于4%，还有一部分原因是我看不出来有什么因素能够推动租金上涨。

“Ben Bernanke [the governor of the Federal Reserve] is going to stop it falling apart, but QE is not going to help growth.

“本·伯南克（美联储主席）要阻止崩盘，但定量宽松无助于增长。

He notes that office rents are near record levels of HK$150 ($19) per square foot per month, where they have been for some time. CBRE, the global property agency, recently named Hong Kong the most expensive city for office rents in the world. The full annual cost of occupying a Hong Kong office, which includes taxes and services charges, has fallen by 17.2 per cent to US$249 per sq ft a year. But even after this it is still 11 per cent more expensive than the West End of London, which ranks second at $220, and 33 per cent ahead of Tokyo at $186.

他指出，写字楼租金处于历史高位附近，为每月每平方英尺150港元(合19美元)，这个价格已持续了一段时间。全球房地产经纪公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE)最近将香港列为全球写字楼租金最贵的城市。按年计算，香港写字楼的总使用成本（包括税收和服务收费）已下滑17.2%，至每年每平方英尺249美元。但即便如此，香港写字楼租金仍比排在第二位的伦敦西区（220美元）高出11%，比东京（186美元）高出33%。

Mr Saunders points at the contrast with Singapore, the financial centre for south-east Asia, where rents have come down from peaks of S$20 ($16) per sq ft per month to S$10-S$12, leaving room for a rebound.

桑德尔斯提到了作为东南亚金融中心的新加坡与香港的不同，新加坡写字楼的月租金已从每平方英尺20新元(合16美元)降至10新元至12新元之间，留下了反弹的空间。

In Singapore, MGPA’s main Asia fund, which looks to generate an internal rate of return of 18-20 per cent, is finishing off the second of two towers in the Marina Bay office development, which is full of gleaming new blocks. Citigroup is the flagship tenant in the first tower, and the top half of the second is pre-let as a Westin hotel.

MGPA在亚洲的主要基金在新加坡滨海湾(Marina Bay)开发了两幢楼，目前第二幢楼即将完工，这里满是光彩熠熠的新建写字楼。该基金计划实现18%至20%的内部回报率。花旗集团(Citigroup)是第一栋楼的旗舰租户，第二栋楼的上半部分由威斯汀酒店(Westin)预租。

This fund, MGPA’s second Asian opportunity vehicle, began life in 2007 with commitments of almost $4bn, much larger than the firm’s first Asia fund, which had a little under $1bn.

该基金是MGPA第二只亚洲机会基金，于2007年设立，资金规模近40亿美元，远远高于该公司的第一只亚洲基金，后者的资金规模略低于10亿美元。

Mr Saunders says MGPA took a bit of a break in investing the fund after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and asked investors for an extension to its expected lifecycle.

桑德尔斯表示，在雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产后，MGPA暂停了该基金的投资，并请求投资者将投资期限延长至预期周期。

Aside from the Marina Bay development in Singapore, it has a handful of other large properties, including a 50 per cent stake in a new shopping mall in Chengdu, Sichuan province, which is a growing hub for electronics manufacturing among other things.

除了在新加坡滨海湾的开发项目，该基金还拥有其他一些大型地产项目，包括四川成都一新建购物中心的50%股权。成都正日益成为电子产品制造以及其他行业的中心。

Indeed, China is another, somewhat more expected, standout investment opportunity in Asia, he says, in spite of the huge levels of investment that have gone into the country in the past few years.

桑德尔斯表示，尽管过去几年已有大量投资流向中国，但中国（从某些方面来说在更多人的意料之中）仍是亚洲另一个出色的投资地。

“China can be very good, he says, “but it takes forever to find a deal that you can get comfortable with.

“中国可能非常不错，他表示，“但要找到一笔让你感觉舒服的交易则需要无比漫长的时间。

Now he has just $250m more to invest, but is happy to have that.

现在他仅仅还有2.50亿美元的可投资资金，但他对此感到满意。

“The specialist property investors like us are much less active at the moment, there is very little capital being raised, he says. “We are lucky to have the last of the opportunity fund and the start of the new Spezialfonds, he says, alluding to the firm’s latest vehicle.

“像我们这样的专业地产投资机构目前并不那么活跃，筹集的资金规模非常小，他表示，“幸运的是，我们的机会基金即将关闭，新的特别基金开始设立。他这里暗指该公司最新设立的基金。

This MGPA Asien Spezialfonds is a much lower risk, income-focused fund created under German law specifically for institutional investors in German-speaking countries. It has raised €85m so far against a target of about €500m in equity and aims to pay out an annual distribution yield of about 5 per cent.

MGPA Asien Spezialfonds基金的风险要低得多，专注于收益，依据德国法律设立，专门面向德语国家的机构投资者。迄今，该基金已募资8500万欧元，目标是募资约5亿欧元，并计划支付约5%的年度分配收益率。

The rationale behind the fund was that Mr Saunders’ Asia team was seeing a lot of good real estate investments but without enough of a return to make them suitable for the opportunity fund. These are primarily income opportunities where there will be little refurbishment needed and certainly no development risk, mainly in countries like Japan.

设立这只基金的背后原因是，桑德尔斯的亚洲团队看到了很多不错的房地产投资，但收益率不足，对其机会基金不合适。这些主要是收益机会，几乎不需要修缮，也肯定没有任何开发风险，主要位于日本这样的国家。

MGPA announced a first close on the Spezialfonds in September, although talks with investors on a second close early next year are ongoing.

今年9月，MGPA宣布Spezialfonds基金首期募资结束，计划明年初完成二期募资，目前正就此与投资者谈判。

“When you think certain markets are quite cheap, you just want to get going and get investing, he says.

他表示：“当你认为一些市场相当廉价时，你就会想进入并投资于这个市常