当中国成为世界第一大经济体

How will it feel when China becomes the world’s largest economy? We may find out quite soon. A few weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund issued a report that suggested China would be number one within five years.

当中国成为世界上最大的经济体时，我们会有什么感受？答案不用多久就会揭晓．几周前，　国际货币基金组织发布一项报告指出，中国将会在五年内成为世界第一大经济体．

The projection that the Chinese economy will be larger than that of the US by 2016 included adjustments for the domestic purchasing power of the two countries’ currencies. Some regard this interpretation of IMF data as a dubious move that artificially boosts the size of the Chinese economy. But even using real exchange rates does not defer the day when America is knocked off its perch by very much. A projection by The Economist, made just before Christmas, foresaw China becoming number one in 2019.

对于中国经济会在２０１６年前超越美国经济的预测包括了对两国货币购买力的调整．一些人认为，ＩＭＦ公布的数据在理解上存在一定的问题，这些数据会人为地夸大中国经济的规模．但是就算用真实汇率计算，美国的经济霸主地位被取代的日子也不会远多少．＜＜经济学人＞＞在去年圣诞前预测，中国会在２０１９年成为世界第一大经济体．

The ascent of China will change ideas of what it means to be a superpower. Over the course of the American century, the world has got used to the idea that the world’s largest economy was also the world’s most obviously affluent nation. The world’s biggest economy housed the world’s richest people.

中国的崛起将会改变人们对超级大国的观念．在美国时代的历程中，各国人们都习惯了这么一种想法：世界最大的经济体也是世界上最富有的国家．世界最大的经济体里居住着世界最有钱的人．

As China emerges as an economic superpower, the connection between national and personal affluence is being broken. China is both richer and poorer than the western world. It is sitting on foreign reserves worth $3 trillion. And yet, measured at current exchange rates, the average American is about 10 times as wealthy as the average Chinese.

随着中国日益崛起成为超级经济大国，一国的财富与个人财富的联系正在被打破．中国既比西方国家富有，也比西方国家贫穷．它坐拥３万亿美元的外汇储备，然而如果按当前汇率来计算，美国的人均财力是中国的十倍．

The relative affluence of US society is one reason why China will not become the world’s most powerful country on the day that it becomes the largest economy. The world’s habit of looking to the US as the “sole superpower” also makes it likely that America’s political dominance will outlast its economic supremacy. America has an entrenched position in global institutions. It matters that the United Nations, the IMF and the World Bank are all situated in the US – and that Nato is built around America.

美国社会的相对富裕正是中国成为世界最大经济体之时却不能成为世界最强国的原因之一．　人们习惯性地把美国当成是世界唯一超级大国，这也让美国的世界政治主导地位比其经济地位更加长久．美国在世界各大机构中都有根深蒂固的地位．有一个很重要的事实是，联合国，国际货币基金组织以及世界银行均坐落于美国．而且北约也是以美国为中心建立起来的．

The US military has a global reach and a technological sophistication that China is nowhere near matching. The US is also ahead on soft power. China, as yet, has no equivalents to Hollywood, Silicon Valley or “the American dream”.

美国军队拥有中国无法比拟的全球网络和高端技术. 同时美国在软实力上也领先. 而中国到目前为止仍然没有自己的 “好莱坞”, “硅谷” 或者是 “美国之梦”.

And yet, while economic and political power are not one and the same thing, the two are still closely connected. As China becomes richer, so it becomes more influential. On a recent visit to São Paulo, I heard a senior Brazilian diplomat say bluntly that distant China, as his country’s largest trading partner, was now more important to Brazil than the US. The first foreign trip made by Dilma Rousseff, the new Brazilian president, was to Beijing, not Washington. Chinese trade and investment has also greatly increased the country’s influence across Africa and in the Middle East.

虽然经济与政治实力不能统一而论, 但是他们却是紧密相连的. 随着中国越来越富强, 它产生的影响力也越大. 在最近的圣保罗之旅中, 我听到一位巴西高级外交官直率地说, 远方的中国, 作为巴西的最大贸易伙伴, 如今对巴西的重要性胜于美国. 新任巴西总统迪尔玛•罗塞夫首次对外访问去的是北京，而非华盛顿. 中国的贸易和投资也极大地提高了该国对非洲和中国的影响力.

The political questions raised by its economic power will be felt most acutely in China’s immediate neighbourhood. Japan, South Korea and Australia now find that their economic and strategic interests are pointing in different directions. All three countries have their most important economic relationship with China, and their most important military relationship with the US. If China throws its weight around too much – as it has shown signs of doing over the past year – Washington’s Asian allies may hug Uncle Sam even more closely, for a while. But, over time, the growing economic power of China will weigh more and more heavily.

中国由于经济实力的崛起而引发的政治问题, 其邻国的感受最为强烈. 日本, 南韩和澳大利亚发现它们的经济和战略利益正在日益分歧. 这三个国家都与中国有非常重要的经济联系, 同时它们与美国也有相当重要的军事联系. 如果中国过分地盛气凌人—去年已经有此迹象—美国在亚洲的联盟恐怕会暂时与美国保持更为紧密的联系. 但是随着时间的推移, 中国的不断增长的经济力量将会变得越来越举足轻重.

A lively debate about how to adapt to an emerging Sinosphere is under way across Asia. Kishore Mahbubani, once head of the Singaporean foreign ministry, says Asians “know that China will still be in Asia in 1,000 years’ time, but we don’t know whether America will still be here in 100 years’ time.”

如今亚洲正在兴起关于如何适应日益浮现的 “中国界”的辩论. 前新加坡外交部长马凯硕表示, 亚洲人 “知道中国仍会在亚洲千秋万代地立足, 但是我们不知道美国在未来一百年内是否仍然在亚洲有举足轻重的影响力.”

原文:　选自英国《金融时报》 译者：爱尔兰都柏林大学　赖小琪