经合组织下调经济增长预期

The OECD has slashed its forecast for growth in 2013 and warned that the risk of a serious global recession cannot be ruled out.

经合组织(OECD)削减了其对2013年经济增长的预测，并警告称，不能排除全球陷入严重衰退的风险。

In its economic outlook, published yesterday, the Paris-based group that aims to promote growth said it expected expansion of 1.4 per cent next year in the economies of its 34 member countries, down from 2.2 per cent forecast in May.

这家总部位于巴黎、以促进经济增长为宗旨的组织在昨日发布的经济展望中表示，预计其34个成员国明年的经济增长率为1.4%，低于5月份预计的2.2%。

The group urged several of its members to step up their policy response.

OECD敦促几个成员国加强政策应对。

“Over the recent past, signs of emergence from the crisis have more than once given way to a renewed slowdown or even a double-dip recession in some countries, said Pier Carlo Padoan, OECD chief economist.

OECD首席经济学家皮尔·卡洛·帕多安(Pier Carlo Padoan)表示：“最近这段时间，一些国家走出经济危机的迹象不止一次消失，代之以新一轮放缓甚或二次探底。

“The risk of a major contraction cannot be ruled out.

“不能排除重大收缩的风险。

The OECD expects the eurozone economy to shrink for a second successive year in 2013 and warns that the currency bloc “could be in danger if there is a lack of sufficient progress by the region’s policy makers.

OECD预期，2013年欧元区经济将连续第二年萎缩，该组织还警告，如果欧元区政策制定者不能取得足够的进展，该货币联盟“可能陷入危险。

Growth in the US is forecast at 2 per cent next year, down from a May estimate of 2.6 per cent.

预计明年美国经济增幅为2%，低于5月份预测的2.6%。

Japan’s economy is expected to expand 0.8 per cent, little more than half the growth expected in May.

日本经济预计增长0.8%，仅相当于5月份预测的一半多一点。

Greece is expected to be the worst performer among the membership, with the OECD expecting its economy to shrink 4.5 per cent next year. The Spanish, Italian, Slovenian and Portuguese economies are also predicted to contract during 2013.

预计希腊是所有成员国中表现最差的国家。OECD预计明年希腊经济将收缩4.5%。预计2013年西班牙、意大利、斯洛文尼亚和葡萄牙经济也将收缩。

The OECD is most upbeat on Chile’s economy, forecast to expand 4.6 per cent next year. The OECD expected growth of 2.3 per cent in 2014.

OECD对智利的经济增长最为乐观，预计明年将增长4.6%，2014年增长2.3%。

The organisation called on some central banks to ease monetary policy and urged China and Germany to raid government coffers should growth disappoint.

OECD呼吁部分国家的央行放松货币政策，并敦促中国和德国在经济增长令人失望的情况下放开政府金库。

报告称：“欧元区、日本和部分新兴市场（包括中国和印度）必须进一步实施（货币）宽松政策。如果严重的下滑风险成真，必须进一步提供政策支持。OECD的大型经济体将有理由尽可能降低利率，并进一步采取更加强劲的量化宽松政策。财政状况强健的国家（包括德国和中国）应该提供临时财政刺激。中国和印度都不是OECD成员国。