三菱东京日联银行行长警告国债持有风险

The risk facing Japanese banks from their vast holdings of government bonds has been underlined by the chief executive of the country’s largest bank who said it would struggle to reduce its exposure.

日本最大银行三菱东京日联银行(BTMU)的行长平野信行(Nobuyuki Hirano)表示，该行将很难缩减其日本国债敞口。平野信行的这番言论，突显出了日本银行因持有巨额日本国债而面临的风险。

Nobuyuki Hirano, chief executive of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi[BTMU], admitted that the bank’s Y40tn ($485bn) holdings of Japanese government bonds were a major risk but said he was powerless to do much about it. “This is analysts’ main concern, he told the Financial Times. “A default of JGBs would have a severe impact on us. But we need to be responsible to keep that market in order.

平野信行承认，三菱东京日联银行持有的40万亿日元（合4850亿美元）日本国债是一个巨大风险，但他表示自己目前无力改变这一现实。他告诉英国《金融时报》说：“分析师们对此极为担忧。日本国债一旦违约，将对我们产生严重影响。然而，我们需要担负保持市场秩序的责任。

According to data produced by the Bank for International Settlements, and published last week by the Bank of England, the holdings of JGBs by Japan’s banks equate to 900 per cent of their tier one capital, compared with about 25 per cent for UK banks’ exposure to gilts and 100 per cent for US banks’ exposure to US Treasuries.

英国央行(BoE)上周发表的由国际清算银行(BIS)编制的数据显示，日本银行持有的日本国债相当于它们一级资本的9倍。相比之下，英国银行持有的英国国债只相当于它们一级资本的25%，美国银行持有的美国国债则相当于它们一级资本的100%。

Mr Hirano said he was “ready to mitigate the risks but said that would mean tweaking the duration of the bonds it invests in rather than reducing the overall portfolio.

平野信行说，他已“准备降低相关风险。不过他表示，为了做到这一点，三菱东京日联银行将小幅调整所持日本国债的久期，而不是削减整个投资组合的规模。

Japanese banks are by far the biggest holders of JGBs, so any move to sell down would destabilise the market.

日本银行持有的日本国债规模远远超过其他持有者，因此，它们采取的任何减持行为都会对市场稳定造成冲击。

Few commentators predict a Japanese default, though some investors have been predicting a sharp rise in yields for some time, which could force the country’s banks to take losses on their holdings of JGBs.

几乎没有什么评论人士预期日本国债会发生违约，但一段时间以来，有些投资者一直在预期日本国债收益率会大幅上升——这样一来，日本银行将不得不承受因持有日本国债而导致的亏损。

In fact, JGBs have rallied this year, pushing the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds to 0.72 per cent, against the average of 1.34 per cent over the past decade. “BTMU does not expect a major JGB crisis because more than 90 per cent are held by domestic institutions, said BTMU, adding that in the light of regular stress-testing the bank was “not worried about a rise in interest rates.

不过事实上，日本国债今年已经止跌回升，将基准的十年期日本国债的收益率压低至0.72%，相比之下，过去十年的平均值则为1.34%。三菱东京日联银行表示：“本行不认为会出现严重的日本国债危机，因为逾90%的日本国债是由日本国内机构持有的。该行还补充表示，根据定期压力测试的结果，该行“对利率上升不感到担心。

The International Monetary Fund warned of “a rising concentration of government bond risk in the domestic banking system, in its global financial stability report in October.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)在其10月份发布的全球金融稳定报告中警告称，“日本国内银行业体系内的日本国债风险进一步呈现集中化。

Japanese government debt has been rising in recent years. But with JGBs now equivalent to nearly 250 per cent of GDP, the country is two and a half times more indebted than the US or UK and a third more than Greece, according to the BIS.

近些年来，日本国债规模不断增加。国际清算银行的数据显示，日本国债规模目前相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的将近2.5倍。这意味着，日本目前的债务负担是美国或英国的2.5倍，比希腊高三分之一。