人民币国际交易中心争夺战

Late last month, a large French business delegation arrived in Hong Kong, headed by the governor of the Banque de France.

上月末，一个大型法国商务代表团抵达香港，带队的是法国央行(Banque de France)行长。

Its task was to convince bankers and companies that Paris was going to play an important part in one of the great currency stories of our time: the internationalisation of the renminbi. Days later, London stepped up its own efforts to secure a starring role, holding a renminbi forum hosted by the UK Treasury.

代表团的任务是说服银行家和企业，在当代一部伟大的货币发展史——人民币国际化中，巴黎将发挥重要作用。数日之后，伦敦为了争取明星地位而加紧了努力，英国财政部(UK Treasury)主办了一场人民币论坛。

While Hong Kong remains the global hub for international trading and transacting in the Chinese currency, there are many would-be suitors to the second spot. London currently leads the race, with Singapore and Taipei vying for a place on the podium. Becoming a renminbi hub, the logic goes, will bring business and create jobs in the finance sector as the redback gradually gains its place as a truly global currency.

尽管香港依然是人民币的国际交易和业务处理中心，但追求坐上第二把交椅的潜在候选者有很多。目前伦敦在比赛中领先，新加坡和台北也在争夺一席之地。这里的逻辑是，随着人民币的地位逐渐提高，晋升为真正的全球货币，成为人民币交易中心将为金融行业带来商机，扩大就业。

“The business impact would be very broad and deep, says Frank Gong, vice-chairman of investment banking for China at JPMorgan. A freely tradeable Chinese currency would create “a lot of new opportunities. Foreign governments too see the benefits of diversifying into a currency other than the US dollar and the euro. Nigeria’s central bank, for example, announced last year that it would hold 10 per cent of its reserves in renminbi.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)中国投资银行业务副主席龚方雄(Frank Gong)表示：“人民币国际化产生的商业影响是广泛而深远的。可自由交易的人民币将创造“大量新机会。外国政府也看到，实行外汇储备多元化，持有除美元和欧元以外的外汇有好处。例如，尼日利亚央行去年宣布，其外汇储备中将持有10%的人民币。

“From a macroeconomic point of view, a third world currency could be beneficial – particularly one from Asia, in which countries could hold their reserves, especially as trade between Asian countries increases, said Swift, a payments company, in a recent white paper on the renminbi.

环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)最近在一份白皮书中表示：“从宏观经济角度来看，持有第三世界货币——尤其是一个亚洲国家的货币是有利的。特别是在亚洲国家之间贸易增长之际，各国在其外汇储备中持有一个亚洲国家的货币大有裨益。SWIFT是一家支付服务企业。

The financial crisis of 2008 highlighted unforeseen risks – both for countries and companies – of being too dependent on the dollar market, the white paper added. But for China, which has become an economic powerhouse on the back of low-cost exports and a strictly controlled currency regime, what is to be gained from making the renminbi a serious rival to the US dollar, other than prestige?

这份白皮书补充道，2008年的金融危机凸显出，不管是国家还是企业，过于依赖美元市场存在意想不到的风险。但对于借助低成本出口和严格管制的外汇制度而成为经济强国的中国而言，把人民币打造成美元的强劲对手，除了树立威信以外，还有什么好处？

So far the focus of renminbi internationalisation has been trade. China is now the world’s top exporter, and number two importer, accounting for 10 per cent of all global trade. Yet, despite rapid growth, the amount of China’s trade conducted in its own currency remains relatively small.

目前为止，人民币国际化的焦点落在贸易方面。如今中国是世界第一大出口国，第二大进口国，占全球贸易的10%。然而，尽管增长迅猛，中国以人民币结算的贸易比例仍然相对较低。

By the end of 2013, Deutsche Bank forecasts that just 15 per cent of China’s global trade volume will be conducted in renminbi, and that is based on expectations of a 30 per cent increase from 2012.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测，到2013年底，中国全球贸易额中，只有15%是以人民币交易的，这还是预期在2012年的基础上增长30%得出的结论。

The financial burden on Chinese companies of having to deal mainly in US dollars, through currency hedging and transaction costs, is a growing frustration. Liberalising China’s currency system would remove those costs, and make Chinese companies more efficient in international trade.

中国企业被迫主要以美元进行交易，其外汇对冲和交易费用成为了企业的财务重担，企业感到日益挫败。中国外汇制度自由化将移除这些成本，提高中国企业在国际贸易中的效率。

Though China’s policy of keeping its currency pegged closely to the US dollar has been a major contributing factor in the country’s export boom over the past 10 years, the country’s growth model is expected to undergo significant change in the coming years.

虽然在过去10年间，人民币盯紧美元的政策为中国出口繁荣做出了很大贡献，但未来数年中国的经济增长模式将发生重大变化。

China is set to register its slowest annual growth rate in a decade this year, prompting a much anticipated shift in policy priorities. Beijing would like to see consumption play a bigger role in driving growth, rather than exports or infrastructure investment. A stronger, more global currency could help Chinese consumers by lowering the cost of imports.

今年，中国的年经济增长率将创下10年来的最低水平，这将促使政府的政策重点向万众期待的方向转移。北京希望在推动经济增长中，消费发挥更重要的作用，而不是一味依赖出口或者基础设施投资。人民币的走强和加深全球化，将通过降低进口成本使消费者受益。

The country has also set a target of 2020 for Shanghai, already the domestic financial capital, to be become a global business centre. This cannot happen without a freely convertible currency.

中国还为已经是国内金融之都的上海制定了目标，到2020年成为全球商业中心。没有自由兑换的货币，这一目标就无法实现。

Some in the financial community believe that these factors combined will push China to move more quickly in the coming years to liberalise its currency system. “Signs are emerging that Beijing policy makers are going to speed up the opening of the country’s capital account. We think the pace of progress will be much faster than currently expected and believe that the renminbi will become a convertible currency within five years, HSBC currency strategists wrote in a recent note to clients.

金融界的部分人士认为，未来数年，这些因素的合力将推动中国加快人民币自由化的步伐。汇丰(HSBC)外汇策略师在至客户函中指出：“目前正在显露出迹象，北京的政策制定者将加快开放中国的资本账户。我们认为进展的步伐将远远超过目前预期，相信在5年内，人民币将成为自由兑换的货币。

However, so far the pace of internationalisation has been slow and steady. The experience of the Asian financial crisis served as a warning of the risks associated with being too open too soon.

不过，目前人民币国际化的步伐缓慢而稳定。亚洲金融危机的教训提出警告，开放过快会引发风险。

“The financial sector is really just emerging, so [policy makers] want to be very cautious in managing the system, says JPMorgan’s Mr Gong. Although China’s banks have been commercialised, and many of them are now publicly listed with major international banks among their shareholders, few believe they are ready to deal with the huge changes to the Chinese financial system that would come from opening up to the world.

摩根大通的龚方雄表示：“中国的金融行业才刚刚起步，因此（政策制定者）在管理金融体系时想要保持谨慎。尽管中国的银行已经商业化，其中很多银行已经上市，股东中不乏大型国际银行，但很少有人认为，它们已经准备好了应对中国金融体系向世界开放而带来的巨大变化。

Others fear that potential capital flight out of the country, and the prospect of increased competition for China’s insulated state-owned enterprises, will temper the pace the internationalisation.

其他人则担心，资本逃离中国的可能性、中国相对封闭的国有企业面临日益激烈竞争的前景，都会延缓人民币国际化步伐。

But while there is disagreement on how fast China will allow its currency to go global, the direction of change is unmistakable.

虽然在中国允许人民币以多快的步伐国际化的问题上，人们存在分歧，但变化的方向是确定无疑的。