垃圾债券的价格还有多大上涨空间？

Junk bonds started 2013 much like they finished 2012 -- on fire.

与2012年年底时一样，垃圾债券在2013年伊始的市场行情也堪称火爆。

In just three trading days this year, bonds of low-rated companies delivered returns of almost three-quarters of a percent, even as most other types of bonds lost value.

在今年以来的仅三个交易日内，投资低评级企业所发行债券的回报率就达到近0.75个百分点，而其他债券的价格在这几个交易日内大都是下跌的。

And junk bonds continued to clock new milestones: Average prices soared to their highest since 2004 and average yields, which decline as prices rise, dropped below 6% for the first time ever, according to Barclays PLC.

巴克莱集团(Barclays PLC)的数据显示，垃圾债券继续跨越了一系列新的里程碑：这类债券的平均价格飙升至2004年以来的最高水平，平均收益率则有史以来首次跌至6%以下。

But the rapid march is making fund managers and analysts wary. Prices are now so high -- averaging more than 105 cents on the dollar -- that there is little room for them to climb much further, some investors say. These are lofty prices for bonds that usually trade below 100 cents, reflecting the higher default risk for such companies.

但垃圾债券价格的迅速上涨正令基金经理和分析师们感到担忧。一些投资者说，垃圾债券的价格目前是如此之高，市场价格平均比票面价值高出5%以上，这令此类债券的价格已没有多少上涨空间。对于市场价格通常低于票面价值的垃圾债券来说，目前的市场价格已处于很高水平。通常而言，垃圾债券的市场价低于票面价值，以此反映出此类债券的发行企业有较高的债务违约风险。

At the very least, returns will pale in comparison with the 15% achieved in 2012, analysts and investors say.

分析师和投资者们说，垃圾债券今年的投资回报率往最好说也无法像2012年那样达到15%。

'It's probably the tail-end of this run,' said Kathy Jones, a fixed-income strategist at retail broker Charles Schwab Corp.

散户经纪商嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.)的固定收益策略师琼斯(Kathy Jones)说，这一波垃圾债券价格上涨行情目前可能已处于强弩之末。

That is creating a dilemma for many fund managers. Most say they still want to own junk bonds, in large part because they yield some five percentage points more than U.S. Treasury bonds. As well, companies will likely benefit as the economy improves, they argue.

这种局面正在给许多基金经理人制造着两难处境。他们大多数人都说，自己依然想持有垃圾债券，这很大程度上是因为垃圾债券的收益率比美国国债收益率高五个百分点左右。他们认为，随着经济形势的改善，企业的经营状况预计也会从中受益。

But with so few bargains left, many fund managers are rethinking what and when they buy.

但由于市场上便宜的垃圾债券已所剩无几，许多基金经理正在重新思考购买什么垃圾债券以及何时购买的问题。

Tom O'Reilly, who co-manages $22 billion of high-yield investments at Neuberger Berman Group, says he has been selling lower-rated companies and buying higher-quality ones, raising the average credit rating of his investments above that of the index he tracks.

奥莱利(Tom O'Reilly)在资产管理公司Neuberger Berman Group与别人共同管理着220亿美元的高收益率投资。他说，自己一直在出售低评级企业发行的债券，并买进质量较高的债券，这使得他所投资债券的平均信用评级高于他所追踪债券指数的信用评级。

'We do upgrade the quality of the portfolio as yields tighten,' Mr. O'Reilly says.

奥莱利说：随着收益率下降，我们确实提高了投资组合的质量。

Ms. Jones is also recommending investors move out of the most risky of high-yield debt into bonds that are more highly rated.

嘉信理财的琼斯也建议投资者抛售掉手中那些最具投资风险的高收益率债券，转而将资金投入评级更高的债券。

Others are looking further off the beaten path for bargains in debt of smaller companies that are less-often traded but often have high yields.

其他人则将目光进一步移开那些热门投资对象，到规模更小企业发行的债券中搜寻便宜的垃圾债券。这些债券虽然不常被交易，但常常具有高收益率。

'We continue to pick up extra yield by focusing on smaller deal size,' said David Breazzano, who runs $5 billion of high-yield investments for institutional clients at DDJ Capital Management LLC.

布雷泽诺(David Breazzano)在投资管理公司DDJ Capital Management LLC为机构客户管理着价值50亿美元的高收益率投资。他说：我们继续在挑选那些收益率特别高的垃圾债券进行投资，方法是把关注点放在规模较小的垃圾债券发行交易上。

While the debt can be more difficult to trade, and is often lower-rated, it can yield an average of 10%, Mr. Breazzano says. That creates a buying opportunity for investors willing to analyze smaller companies and buy for the long term, he says. Still, such investments can suffer sharp price drops when markets turn volatile. DDJ says it offers the strategy to investors who are willing to buy and hold.

布雷泽诺说，虽然这些债券会更加难以进行交易，并且其评级常常较低，但它们的平均收益率却能达到10%。他说，对于愿意分析规模较小的公司并出于长期投资目的购买垃圾债券的投资者来说，这类债券为他们创造了一个买进机会。不过当市场大幅波动时，这类债券的价格也会大幅下跌。DDJ Capital Management说，它会向愿意买进并持有的投资者提供投资策略。

Most fund managers are predicting returns of 6% to 9% this year, roughly in line with the interest rates, or coupons, junk bonds pay. That compares with forecasts for returns below 2% for investment-grade corporate bonds.

大多数基金经理都预测，垃圾债券今年的投资回报率将为6%至9%，与垃圾债券的票面利率大体相同。相比之下，投资级企业债券今年的投资回报率预计不到2%。

But coupon-like returns have been rare for junk bonds historically.

但历史上垃圾债券很少能够获得和票面利率差不多的回报率。

Junk bonds are typically volatile─often swinging wildly from one year to the next. Only once in the last 33 years have junk bonds delivered a total return within one percentage point of the coupon value at the start of the year, according to research by Bank of America BAC +1.25% .

垃圾债券往往有着很高的波动性，这一年和下一年之间常常出现剧烈的震荡。根据美国银行(Bank of America)的研究，过去33年，垃圾债券的总回报率与年初票面利率的差距只有一次是在一个百分点以内。

'Things often go either very well or badly for this market, making a 'coupon-clipping' experience a rare luxury indeed,' the bank's analysts wrote in a Dec. 26 report.

美银分析师在12月26日的报告中写道：垃圾债券的表现要么是非常好，要么是非常不好，所以回报率紧咬票面利率的情形难得一见。

The Bank of America analysts anticipate junk bonds will return about 7% this year, compared with a 10% annualized average of the past five years. That would still make high-yield debt an 'interesting proposition' for many investors, so long as they had tempered their expectations, the analysts said.

美银分析师预计今年垃圾债券回报率将达7%左右，低于过去五年来10%的平均年化回报率。分析师说，以这样的回报来看，只要投资者缓和一下预期，高收益债券对很多投资者来说仍是“有吸引力的。

The biggest headwind facing investors is that 45% of their bonds now trade at prices above the level at which companies are permitted to buy, or 'call,' them back. Clearwire Corp.'s CLWR 0.00% 12% bond due 2015, for example, traded at 108 cents on the dollar Friday but can be called at 106 cents on the dollar as of Feb. 3, according to S&P Capital IQ. That would impose a 1.9% loss on buyers of the bond last week.

投资者面临的最大不利因素在于，目前45%垃圾债券的价格都高于公司有权赎回的价格。比如据S&P Capital IQ的数据，Clearwire Corp.票面利率12%、2015年到期的债券在上周五的价格是面值的108%，但该债券可以在2月3日及之前以106%的价格赎回。这将使上周买下这只债券的投资者蒙受1.9%的损失。

With borrowing rates at record lows, companies are raising new debt to call outstanding bonds. They bought back some $101 billion of bonds in 2012, a 16-year high and a 38% increase over 2011, according to research by J.P. Morgan Chase JPM +1.77% .

在借贷利率处于创纪录低水平的情况下，企业通过举借新债来赎回流通中的债券。据摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)的研究，2012年企业赎回债券约1,010亿美元，创16年以来最高水平，较2011年增加38%。

'It is the reason there's very limited capacity for bond prices to push significantly higher,' said Oleg Melentyev, credit strategist at Bank of America.

美银信贷策略师梅连季耶夫(Oleg Melentyev)说，这正是债券价格大幅上涨能力有限的原因。

For some, the best way to play high-yield debt right now is to bet against it. Peter Tchir, founder of TF Market Advisors, placed a bet against a high-yield exchange-traded fund in mid-December. He took off the trade on Dec. 27 as his firm decided that a budget standoff in Washington would be resolved, sending prices higher. But, with the rise in bond prices last week, Mr. Tchir says he has put his short trades back on.

对一些投资者来说，目前投资高收益债券最好的方式是做空这类债券。TF Market Advisors创始人切尔(Peter Tchir)去年12月中旬做空了一只高收益上市交易基金。去年12月27日，由于他的公司认定华盛顿的预算僵局将会得到解决、进而推高债券价格，他取消了空头头寸。但随着上周债券价格上涨，切尔说，他又重新建立了空头头寸。

Dennis McCafferty takes an unorthodox approach to the two high-yield funds he manages for John Hancock Financial, doing deep research into struggling companies and making bets on bonds he considers undervalued. His funds were the two best-performing of almost 600 high-yield funds monitored by Morningstar Inc. MORN -0.29% in 2012, delivering returns of 27.3% and 24.6%. Though he acknowledges returns this year will be lower, Mr. McCafferty says 'we still hope to outpace our peers by 2% or more.'

麦卡弗蒂(Dennis McCafferty)对他为John Hancock Financial管理的两只高收益基金采取一种非常规做法，对陷入困境的公司进行深入研究，押注他认为被低估的债券。在晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.) 2012年跟踪的近600只高收益基金中，他的这两只基金是表现最好的，回报率分别为27.3%和24.6%。尽管他承认今年的回报率会降低，但他说：我们仍希望回报率比同类基金高出2%或更多。

Mr. McCafferty says he is making large bets on higher-yielding bonds of companies he knows particularly well, such as Sirius XM Radio SIRI +0.65% . The fund's 10 largest holdings comprise about 30% of its portfolio, he says. About 40% of the John Hancock High Yield Fund is invested in low-rated high-yield bonds, convertible bonds and stocks.

麦卡弗蒂说，他将在那些自己尤其熟悉的公司所发行的更高收益债券上押下重注，比如Sirius XM Radio。他说，该基金重仓持有的10大债券占其投资组合的约30%。John Hancock高收益基金(John Hancock High Yield Fund)有约40%投资于低评级高收益债券、可转换债券和股票。