欧元区必须采取更激进措施

After weeks of foot-dragging, the eurozone has stumbled towards a new aid programme for Greece. The package agreed in the early hours of Tuesday morning will not be the last. But it shows Europe is starting to accept grudgingly that there is a cost to keeping Athens in the single currency.

经过数周的迟疑之后，欧元区终于艰难地出台了一项新的希腊纾困计划。周二凌晨达成的这项一揽子计划，绝不会是最后一项希腊纾困计划。但这件事同时也表明，欧洲开始不情愿地承认，为了使希腊留在欧元区，是要付出一定代价的。

That Athens will, at last, receive the €34.4bn it had long been promised by its partners is welcome. After the Greek government had passed a draconian programme of fiscal consolidation requested by the eurozone, it would have been unthinkable for the rest of the bloc to refuse to fulfil its side of the bargain. The cash will also help the economy: fresh capital will ease the constraints on the country’s struggling banks.

希腊终于将得到欧元区其他成员国一直以来承诺的344亿欧元纾困资金，这件事值得庆贺。应欧元区的要求，希腊政府已通过了一项严格的财政整固计划。因此，欧元区其他成员国已没有任何可以想见的理由拒绝兑现自己的承诺。这些资金还将提振希腊的经济：新流入的资本将缓解苦苦挣扎的希腊银行所面临的压力。

There are also signs that the eurozone is coming to terms with what market participants have long recognised. Athens’ public debt is unsustainable and creditors – including the official sector – will have to take further hits to put it back on the right track. The International Monetary Fund deserves credit for putting its foot down and demanding a more realistic plan.

还有迹象表明，欧元区正在慢慢承认市场参与者早已认清的现实。希腊的公共债务是不可持续的，为了使之回归正轨，包括官方部门在内的各类债权人必须做出进一步的牺牲。国际货币基金组织(IMF)坚决要求制定一项更加现实的计划，这一做法值得称赞。

The steps taken on the path to debt-relief are, however, still questionable. Reducing the interest rate charged on bilateral loans was hardly the best place to start: it may force countries in difficulty such as Italy and Spain to lend to Greece at a loss, while Germany will still make a small profit. The maturity extensions agreed were too timid. It is doubtful whether they will give enough time for Greece to grow sufficiently to repay its debt.

尽管如此，这些旨在减免希腊债务的措施还是值得商榷的。降低双边贷款利率很难说是理想的起点：那会迫使意大利和西班牙等面临困境的国家“赔本向希腊提供贷款，而德国却仍可获得少量收益。各方达成的贷款偿还期限延长幅度过于寒酸。它们是否将给希腊留出足够的时间来实现充分增长以偿还债务，依然充满不确定性。

The political reasons behind this cautiousness are understandable. Asking national parliaments to pass a more ambitious debt-relief programme with the prospect of Cyprus and potentially Spain being the next in line is tricky. The German national elections, scheduled for 2013, are another roadblock. It may be easier for a new German government to accept a more ambitious deal, rather than the outgoing coalition led by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

这种谨慎背后的政治理由是可以理解的。考虑到塞浦路斯或许还有西班牙可能是接下来需要纾困的国家，要求各成员国议会通过一项更宏伟的减债计划是很困难的。定于2013年举行的德国大选也是一个障碍。与安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)总理领导的、即将交班的本届联合政府相比，新一届德国政府可能更乐于接受一项更宏伟的协议。

Yet the eurozone should realise that the crisis cannot be resolved without a rebalancing between creditors and debtors. The latest plan is full of slippages. In the short term, a debt buyback from the private sector may not lure in enough investors. In the long term, Greece’s growth forecasts could prove overambitious. In both cases, the official sector will have to bridge the gap. This week’s deal offers little more than life support to the Greek patient.

然而，欧元区应该意识到，如果债权人和债务人之间无法重新达成平衡，危机就无法解决。最新的纾困计划问题多多。短期来看，私人部门的债务回购可能吸引不到足够的投资者。长期来看，事实可能会证明各方对希腊增长的预期过于乐观。在这两种情况下，官方部门都不得不出手填补空缺。本周达成的协议不过是向希腊这位“病人提供了“生命支持系统。