巴菲特投资太阳能

So Warren Buffett has the hots for solar. This week he committed a further $2.5bn to the industry through his MidAmerican Energy Holdings. For the first time in a long time, he is not alone. Shares in solar-panel makers such as First Solar and SunTech have finally turned a corner, recovering in recent months from five-year lows. Never mind the fundamentals – SunTech, the world’s biggest panel manufacturer, carries $1.6bn in net debt and is lossmaking, for example.

看来沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)是迷上了太阳能。本周他通过旗下的中美能源控股(MidAmerican Energy Holdings)，向该行业再度投资25亿美元。这回他不是唯一这么做的，这是很久以来头一次。像First Solar和尚德(SunTech)这样的太阳能电池板制造商，股价终于有了起色，近月来从5年低点反弹。且不谈基本面因素——举例来说，全球最大的太阳能电池板制造商尚德有16亿美元净债务，且处于亏损状态。

Investors may expect brightening prospects. China, the solar market with the most potential, recently approved a huge number of installations for 2013, along with $1bn in new subsidies. In the US, where Mr Buffett is focusing his solar investments, the industry still benefits from tax credits, which will now extend to wind power following the fiscal cliff compromise. And the cost to install one watt of solar capacity, which has almost halved during the past five years to about $1.20, continues to fall. The shale gas revolution in the US has increased pressure for those costs to fall faster.

投资者也许在期待转向光明的前景。中国这一最具发展潜力的太阳能市场，最近批准大量太阳能项目在2013年上马，同时还有10亿美元的新补贴。在美国，即巴菲特集中投资的太阳能市场，该行业仍受益于税收抵免，继国会达成财政悬崖妥协后，税收抵免如今将延伸至风力发电行业。同时每瓦特太阳能发电能力的安装成本（过去五年中已几乎减半，降至大约1.20美元）也在继续下降。美国的页岩气革命带来了更大压力，要求那些成本加速下降。

That is all very well, but the world’s panel makers remain in a bind. In spite of falling costs, they still need subsidies to stay afloat. Without consensus about the effects of carbon dioxide emissions on climate change, these subsidies will fluctuate. To the cost of solar installation must be added that of storage capacity – batteries – to ensure steady electricity supply. Only in countries such as Germany or Hawaii, with high power prices, does that final price of electricity from solar compete with that from the grid, notes industry consultancy GTM Research. And rock-bottom panel prices caused by a supply glut mean most manufacturers will not return to profitability any time soon. Mr Buffett is probably in this for the long haul. Investors that are not are in for an Icarus moment.

这些都很好，但全球太阳能电池板制造商仍处于困境。尽管成本不断下降，他们仍需要补贴来维持运营。由于各方对二氧化碳排放对气候变化的影响缺乏共识，这些补贴将是不稳定的。除了太阳能电池板的安装成本以外，还要计入电能存储（即电池，用于确保稳定的供电）的成本。业内咨询机构GTM Research指出，只有在德国和夏威夷这些电价很高的市场，太阳能供电的最终价格，才可与电网的电价竞争。而供应过剩造成的太阳能电池板价格深陷谷底，意味着制造商在短期内将无法恢复盈利。巴菲特可能在走长线。而不走长线的投资者将面临伊卡洛斯时刻(Icarus moment)。