特朗普的贸易战豪赌:等待北京先让步

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on almost every Chinese product that comes into the United States intensified the possibility of a damaging trade war, sending stock markets tumbling on Tuesday and drawing a rebuke from retailers, tech companies and manufacturers.

华盛顿——特朗普总统威胁要对几乎所有进入美国的中国商品加征关税，加剧了一场破坏性贸易战的可能性，导致股市周二暴跌，引发来自零售商、科技企业及制造商的指责。

The Trump administration remained unmoved by those concerns, with a top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, insisting that China has more to lose from a trade fight than the United States. He also declared that Mr. Trump would not allow Beijing to simply buy its way out of an economic dispute by promising to import more American goods.

对于这些担忧，特朗普政府仍然不为所动，高级贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)坚称中国在贸易对抗中损失会比美国大。他还称，特朗普不会允许北京通过承诺进口更多美国商品，轻松摆脱经济争端。

“President Trump has given China every chance to change its aggressive behavior,” Mr. Navarro said in a call with reporters on Tuesday. “China does have much more to lose than we do.”

“特朗普总统已经给了中国一切机会，让其改变自己的攻击性做法，”纳瓦罗周二与记者通话时说。“中国的损失确实比我们大。”

In threatening tariffs on as much as $450 billion worth of Chinese goods, the administration is betting that Beijing will blink first. It’s a risky gamble by a White House that appears ready to forgo diplomatic negotiations in favor of punishing tariffs that could pinch consumers and companies on both sides of the Pacific.

在对价值高达4500亿美元的中国商品加征关税的威胁中，这届政府赌的是北京会先作出让步。这是一场豪赌，白宫看起来似乎准备放弃外交谈判，转而采取惩罚性关税，这可能会对太平洋两岸的消费者和企业造成冲击。

The approach fulfills a frequent campaign promise by Mr. Trump. But it has spooked companies, investors and markets, which are increasingly worried that the United States has no other strategy to resolve a stalemate with China over its trade practices. Several rounds of trade talks with top Chinese officials in Washington and Beijing produced little agreement, and no additional official negotiations are scheduled, administration officials said.

这一举措实现了特朗普一个常挂在嘴边的竞选承诺，但也吓到了企业、投资者和市场，他们愈发担忧美国没有其他办法解决与中国就其贸易做法形成的僵局。与中国高层官员在华盛顿和北京的几轮谈判没有达成什么协议，美国政府官员表示，两国也没有另外再安排官员进行谈判。

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump suggested he was ready for a fight, saying China would no longer take advantage of the United States.

周二，特朗普暗示他准备好了要打贸易战，他说中国不会再占美国的便宜了。

“China has been taking out $500 billion a year out of our country and rebuilding China,” the president said during a speech in Washington before the National Federation of Independent Business. “ They’ve taken so much. It’s time folks, it’s time. So we’re going to get smart, and we’re going to do it right.”

“中国每年从我们国家拿走5000亿美元，去重建中国，”总统在华盛顿向美国独立企业联盟(National Federation of Independent Business)发表讲话时说。“他们拿走了那么多，是时候了，伙计们，是时候了。所以我们要变聪明起来，而且我们会把这件事做好。”

Markets sank on Tuesday in response to Mr. Trump’s announcement late Monday that his administration was preparing to impose even more tariffs than he originally threatened if China continued with its plan to retaliate against the United States.

特朗普在周一晚间宣布，如果中国继续实施报复美国的计划，他的政府准备征收比之前的威胁要多的关税，全球市场周二应声下跌。

Mr. Trump is now threatening to tax nearly the total value of goods that China sent to the United States last year, which was $505.6 billion.

特朗普现在威胁对中国去年向美国全部出口商品的总价值进行征税，该数字为5056亿美元。

The benchmark Dow Jones index, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite all fell on Tuesday, following stock markets in Frankfurt, London, Paris, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Chinese mainland. Investors moved money into assets that are considered safe havens, like 10-year United States Treasury bonds and the Japanese yen.

作为基准的道琼斯指数、标准普尔500指数及以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数周二下跌，紧随法兰克福、伦敦、巴黎、香港及中国大陆的股市之后。投资者将资金转移至被视为安全的资产，例如10年期美国国债和日元。

Shares of Boeing and Caterpillar, which are among America’s leading exporters to China, fell sharply on Tuesday, along with soybean futures. China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans, a key livestock feed, and Beijing has targeted American soybeans for retaliation with its own tariffs.

波音(Boeing)和卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)是美国主要的对华出口企业，周二，两家公司的股价连同大豆期货均大幅下跌。大豆是一种重要的饲料，中国是世界上最大的大豆进口国，北京已将美国大豆作为目标，征收报复性关税。

Soybean prices dropped more than 7 percent at times during the morning before stabilizing in afternoon trading. Prices are at their lowest level in more than two years, creating a politically delicate issue for Mr. Trump, who has strong support from rural voters in farm states but whose trade policies have angered farmers and lawmakers who represent them.

周二上午，大豆价格跌幅超过7%，在下午的交易中趋于回稳。大豆价格目前为两年多以来的最低点，这给特朗普带来了一个在政治上敏感的问题，因为他在农业州的农村选民当中获得了强大的支持，但他的贸易政策已经惹怒了农民和代表他们的立法者。

Senator Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican, said in a statement, “These aggressive trade actions will continue to have damaging consequences, including an impact on our commodity prices and farm futures, and increasing anxiety among the agricultural and business communities in Iowa.”

艾奥瓦州共和党参议员约尼·厄恩斯特(Joni Ernst)在一则声明中表示，“这些激进的贸易行为将继续造成具有破坏性的后果，包括对我们的大宗商品价格及农产品期货的冲击，以及艾奥瓦州农业及商业社区的焦虑在不断增加。”

But Mr. Navarro, who is among Mr. Trump’s most strident anti-China advisers, dismissed those concerns, saying the United States had no choice. He said that the White House had given China numerous opportunities to negotiate and alter policies that have cost Americans millions of jobs, and that the Trump administration was now prepared to impose tariffs on $450 billion of Chinese goods in order to force Beijing to bend.

但特朗普最强硬的反华顾问之一纳瓦罗驳斥了这些顾虑，称美国别无选择。他表示，白宫给了中国许多谈判和改变政策的机会，那些政策已经让美国人失去了数百万个工作岗位，特朗普政府现在准备对4500亿美元的中国商品征收关税，以迫使北京屈服。

“I think that the other side may have underestimated the strong resolve of President Donald J. Trump,” Mr. Navarro said. “If they thought that they could buy us off cheap with a few extra products and allow them to continue to steal our intellectual property and crown jewels, that was a miscalculation. We hope going forward there are no more miscalculations.”

“我认为对方可能低估了唐纳德·J·特朗普总统的坚定决心，”纳瓦罗说。“如果他们认为可以用一些额外的产品廉价收买我们，允许他们继续窃取我们的知识产权和皇冠上的珠宝，那他们是做出了误判。我们希望将来不再出现误判。”

Mr. Navarro said a trade clash would hurt China much more than the United States, given that the value of China’s exports to the United States was nearly four times the value of what the United States exports to China.

纳瓦罗表示，由于中国对美出口价值几乎是美国对华出口价值的四倍，所以，贸易冲突对中国的伤害要远远大于对美国的伤害。

For weeks, the United States and China had appeared close to a deal that would have forestalled tariffs. Top advisers like Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, and Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, had advocated a deal that could avoid the devastating effects of a trade war, and spent hours in negotiations with Chinese officials.

数周以来，美中似乎已接近达成一项避免关税的协议。美国财政部长史蒂文·马努钦(Steven Mnuchin)和商务部长威尔伯·罗斯(Wilbur Ross)等高级顾问曾主张达成一项能避免贸易战破坏性影响的协议，他们与中国官员进行了数小时的谈判。

But after the Chinese refused to commit to a target for reducing their trade surplus with the United States or limit industrial subsidies, Mr. Trump rejected those proposals. And his resolve only hardened after lawmakers, including Democrats, criticized him as being weak on China when he agreed to help ease penalties on ZTE, a Chinese telecommunications company accused of violating American sanctions.

但在中国拒绝承诺减少对美贸易顺差或限制工业补贴后，特朗普拒绝了这些提议。在他同意帮助减轻对中兴通讯的处罚后，包括民主党在内的议员批评他在中国问题上太软弱，所以他更坚定了决心。

That decision has triggered a huge fight between the White House and Congress. On Monday, the Senate passed legislation that would reinstate penalties on ZTE and rescind a Commerce Department deal that allowed the company to stay in business in exchange for paying a large fine and agreeing to a series of management and compliance changes. The White House has vowed to remove that provision before the bill becomes final, and Mr. Trump is expected to meet with lawmakers on Wednesday to discuss the fate of ZTE.

减轻处罚中兴的决定引发了白宫和国会之间的剧烈斗争。周一，参议院通过一项法案，将恢复对中兴通讯的处罚，撤销商务部的一项交易——该交易允许中兴通讯继续经营，中兴则需要支付巨额罚款，并同意进行一系列管理和合规改革。白宫誓言要在该法案最终确定前取消该条款，预计特朗普将于周三与议员们会面，讨论中兴通讯的命运。

The president’s approach has irritated some of Mr. Trump’s own advisers, including Mr. Mnuchin, who has been frustrated by the process of the China talks, according to an official familiar with his thinking. Mr. Mnuchin has tried to explain in recent meetings how China is likely to respond to America’s threats and the impact that retaliation could have on financial markets and the economy.

据一位知情官员称，特朗普的做法激怒了他自己的一些顾问，包括马努钦，他对与中国谈判的进程感到沮丧。马努钦在最近的一些会议上试图阐明，中国可能会对美国的威胁作何反应，以及中国的报复可能会对金融市场和经济产生什么影响。

He has also been trying to persuade Mr. Trump not to proceed with harsh restrictions on Chinese investment that would limit China’s ability to do business in the United States. The Treasury Department is expected to release a proposal this month. Mr. Mnuchin, who is leading the effort, has been trying to convincer Mr. Trump that the restrictions are unnecessary, given pending legislation that would expand national security reviews performed by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.

他还一直试图说服特朗普不要继续对中国投资实施严厉限制，这些限制会影响中国在美国做生意的能力。预计财政部本月将公布一项提案。主导这项努力的马努钦一直在试图让特朗普明白，没有必要实施这些限制，因为即将进行的立法将扩大外国在美投资委员会(Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States)的国家安全审查权限。

In late May, Mr. Mnuchin helped orchestrate a meeting between the president, top White House advisers and Republican lawmakers, where the Treasury secretary asked lawmakers to help make the case that legislation would be a more targeted way to police Chinese investment, three people with knowledge of the meeting said. But Mr. Navarro and Robert E. Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, who were also in the meeting, objected to that approach. The president ultimately overruled Mr. Mnuchin, saying that he supported the congressional legislation but that it alone wasn’t enough.

据三位知情人士称，5月底，马努钦协助组织了一场由特朗普、白宫高级顾问和共和党议员参与的会议。在会上，财政部长请议员们帮助论述该议案会是监管中国投资的更具针对性的方式。但纳瓦罗和美国贸易代表罗伯特·E·莱特希泽(Robert E. Lighthizer)也参加了那次会议，他们反对那种做法。特朗普最终否定了马努钦的主张，称他支持国会的这项立法，但仅此还不够。

The decision to proceed with tariffs is a victory for hard-liners in the administration, like Mr. Navarro and Mr. Lighthizer. They had argued that the United States should not back down from trying to force China to make more fundamental changes to its economy, even if such measures would cause short-term pain for American businesses and consumers.

对纳瓦罗和莱特希泽等政府中的强硬派来说，继续征收关税的决定是一个胜利。他们认为，美国不应该放弃尝试逼迫中国对其经济进行更彻底的改革，即使这些措施会在短期内给美国企业和消费者带来痛苦。

On Tuesday, Mr. Navarro minimized the divisions between administration officials, saying the United States’ negotiating process had not wavered and was “linear.” He said the idea of dropping the trade case in exchange for purchases — something the Chinese had offered the Americans in negotiations — had always been a “nonstarter.”

周二，纳瓦罗将政府官员之间的分歧降到最小，称美国的谈判进程没有动摇，是“线性”的。他说，撤销贸易诉讼以换取采购的想法——这是中国在谈判中向美国提出的——向来“行不通”。

In his remarks Tuesday morning, Mr. Navarro took aim at China’s internal plan to develop cutting-edge industries like robotics, new-energy vehicles, advanced rail and shipping, and aerospace. He said the country could not be allowed to dominate technologies that would be an important source of jobs and growth for the United States in decades to come.

在周二上午的讲话中，纳瓦罗把目标指向了中国发展机器人、新能源汽车、先进的铁路和航运以及航空航天等尖端行业的内部计划。他说，不能让中国主导这些技术，它们将是美国未来几十年重要的就业和增长来源。

China has engaged in unfair practices, including cybertheft and “information harvesting,” to obtain technological secrets from the United States that would allow China to pull ahead in these industries, Mr. Navarro said.

纳瓦罗说，为了从美国获取能够让自己在这些行业领先的技术机密，中国采取了不公平的做法，包括网络盗窃和“信息收集”。

“It is important to note here that the actions President Trump has taken are purely defensive in nature,” he said.

“务必要注意的是，特朗普总统采取的行动从本质上来说纯粹是防御性的，”他说。

There is broad agreement that China has engaged in unfair trade practices that have hurt American companies. But Mr. Trump’s resort to tariffs as his primary negotiating tool has prompted swift condemnation from retail, technology and manufacturing companies, who said the approach could hurt American consumers and companies more than the White House realized.

在中国采取了不公平的贸易做法，伤害了美国公司这一点上，各方达成了广泛的共识。但特朗普诉诸关税，将其作为主要谈判工具的做法立刻遭到了零售、科技和制造业企业的谴责。它们说，这种做法给美国消费者和企业造成的伤害，可能会超出白宫的想象。

Jose Castaneda, spokesman for the Information Technology Industry Council, called the escalation of trade tensions with China “irresponsible and counterproductive.”

信息技术产业协会(Information Technology Industry Council)的发言人乔斯·卡斯塔涅达(Jose Castaneda)说，与中国贸易紧张关系升级是“不负责任和适得其反的”。

“We appreciate President Trump’s efforts to protect the United States’ ‘crown jewels,’ but tariffs are simply the wrong way to do it,” he said. “The White House needs to work with our allies to create lasting change with China. Too many jobs and livelihoods are at stake to get this wrong.”

“我们感谢特朗普总统为保护美国‘王冠上的宝石’所做的努力，但征收关税是完全错误的做法，”他说。“白宫需和我们的盟友合作，同中国一起创造持久的变化。一旦出错，会有太多的工作岗位和生计面临危险。”

Matt Priest, the president of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, said it was difficult to see how tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods wouldn’t “negatively impact all Americans of every walk of life.”

美国鞋类分销商和零售商协会(Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America)会长马特·普里斯特(Matt Priest)说，很难认为对另外2000亿美元的中国商品征收关税不会“对各行各业的美国民众产生不利影响”。

“The president claimed that trade wars are easy to win, but what our industry has always known is coming true: Trade wars are costly, unnecessary and do harm to the American economy,” he said.

“总统声称贸易战容易打赢，但我们这个行业向来都了解的一点正在成为现实：贸易战代价高昂，没有必要，并且会伤害美国经济，”他说。