奥地利数学家算出世界杯冠军 曾成功预测西班牙捧杯

四年一届的世界杯即将到来。哪支球队将捧起大力神杯？奥地利数学家通过数据统计预测说，巴西队将和德国队在决赛相遇。经历了上届世界杯的惨痛记忆，巴西希望卷土重来，德国则力争卫冕。

热苏斯，巴西，现效力于英超曼城队。 图为热苏斯（右）在与德国队的热身赛中（2018年3月28日摄）。 新华社记者单宇琦摄

Austrian mathematicians have revealed why you should put your money on either Brazil or Germany for the 2018 World Cup.

奥地利数学家解释了本届世界杯期间大家应该投注给巴西和德国的原因。

The two teams are neck-and-neck favourites to win the tournament, according to a set of millions of calculations based on hundreds of betting odds.

他们根据数百万次基于大量投注赔率的计算发现，这两支球队都是夺冠大热。

Experts said while Brazil have a 16.6 percent probability of winning the title, defending world champions Germany are close behind with a 15.8 percent chance.

专家表示，巴西队捧杯几率为16.6%，卫冕冠军德国队紧随其后，捧杯几率为15.8%。

The research team has successfully predicted several tournament outcomes in the past, among them the correct world champions Spain in the 2010 World Cup and three out of four semi-finalists in the 2017 World Cup in Brazil.

该研究小组成功预测过几次杯赛结果，包括正确预测了2010年世界杯冠军西班牙队和2017年巴西世界杯三支进入半决赛的球队。

Researchers at the University of Innsbruck in Austria combined the odds of 26 online bookmakers and betting exchanges with a complex set of statistical models.

奥地利因斯布鲁克大学的研究人员运用一套复杂的统计模型，对26个网上赌注经纪人和博彩交易所的投注赔率进行了综合统计。

Using these calculations to simulate all possible games and results, Brazil and Germany came out on top more than all other teams.

研究人员利用这些计算模拟所有可能的比赛及其结果。巴西和德国夺冠的可能性位居其他所有球队之上。

‘The most likely final with a probability of 5.5 percent is also a match between these two teams, giving Brazil the chance to make up for the dramatic semi-final of 2017,’ study coauthor Professor Achim Zeileis said.

研究合著者阿奇姆-泽勒斯教授说：“决赛最有可能在巴西队和德国队之间展开（5.5%），让巴西队有机会弥补2017年世界杯半决赛遭遇德国队时的惨败（译者注：这场比赛中巴西队1-7惨败德国队）。”

Though a final between the two seems likely, the models were unable to predict which of the teams would lift the trophy.

尽管决赛有可能在巴西队和德国队之间展开，但模型无法预测出谁将捧起大力神杯。

Brazil’s probability of winning the final against Germany is just 50.6 percent, leaving the defending champions with a 49.4 percent chance in the final.

巴西队战胜德国队的几率是50.6%，德国队战胜巴西队几率则为49.4%。

Behind the two top favourites Germany and Brazil there were two other teams with a good chance of winning: Spain (12.5 percent) and France (12.1 percent).

夺冠几率位居巴西队和德国队之后的是另外两支球队：西班牙队（12.5%）和法国队（12.1%）。

The most likely semi-final pairings was therefore Brazil vs. France at 9.4 percent and Germany vs. Spain at 9.2 percent.

因此最有可能出现的半决赛对阵局势是：巴西队对法国队（9.4%），德国队对西班牙队（9.2%）。

Both Brazil and Germany were deemed the more likely winners of these matches.

这两场比赛中，巴西队和德国队获胜几率都更大。

England was picked out as the seventh most likely team to win, with a probability of 4.9 percent.

英格兰队在获胜几率榜单中排名第七（4.9%）。

The bookmakers’ odds saw the host country Russia as the twelfth-best team overall.

根据赔率计算，东道主俄罗斯队获胜几率排在第12位。

While the probability that Russia will reach the quarter-finals was an impressive 28.9 percent, their chances of winning the tournament were just 2.1 percent.

尽管俄罗斯队打进四分之一决赛的几率高达28.9%，但捧杯几率仅有2.1%。

‘Naturally, the bookmakers want to earn money with their betting offers, and hence they set their odds as realistically as possible, taking into account not only historical data but also the tournament draw and short-term events such as injured players,’ Professor Zeileis said.

泽勒斯教授说：“博彩业者当然想从下注中赚钱，因此他们把赔率设置得尽可能接近实际。他们不仅考虑了历史数据，还考虑了比赛抽签和短期事件，比如伤病运动员的影响。”

以下是研究人员计算出的各球队获胜几率：

1) Brazil – 16.6%

巴西– 16.6%

2) Germany – 15.8%

德国– 15.8%

3) Spain – 12.5%

西班牙– 12.5%

4) France – 12.1%

法国– 12.1%

5) Argentina – 8.4%

阿根廷– 8.4%

6) Belgium – 7.3%

比利时– 7.3%

7) England – 4.9%

英格兰– 4.9%

8) Portugal – 3.4%

葡萄牙– 3.4%

9) Uruguay – 2.7%

乌拉圭– 2.7%

10) Croatia – 2.5%

克罗地亚– 2.5%

11) Colombia – 2.2%

哥伦比亚– 2.2%

12) Russia – 2.1%

俄罗斯– 2.1%

13) Poland – 1.5%

波兰– 1.5%

14) Denmark – 0.9%

丹麦– 0.9%

15) Mexico – 0.8%

墨西哥– 0.8%

16) Switzerland – 0.8%

瑞士– 0.8%

17) Sweden – 0.6%

瑞典– 0.6%

18) Egypt – 0.5%

埃及– 0.5%

19) Serbia – 0.5%

塞尔维亚– 0.5%

20) Senegal – 0.5%

塞内加尔– 0.5%

21) Peru – 0.4%

秘鲁– 0.4%

22) Nigeria – 0.4%

尼日利亚– 0.4%

23) Iceland – 0.4%

冰岛– 0.4%

24) Japan – 0.3%

日本– 0.3%

25) Australia – 0.2%

澳大利亚– 0.2%

26) Morocco – 0.2%

摩洛哥– 0.2%

27) Costa Rica – 0.2%

哥斯达黎加– 0.2%

28) South Korea – 0.2%

韩国– 0.2%

29) Iran – 0.2%

伊朗– 0.2%

30) Tunisia – 0.1%

突尼斯– 0.1%

31) Saudi Arabia – 0.1%

沙特阿拉伯– 0.1%

32) Panama – 0.1%

巴拿马– 0.1%