日本能否挽救TPP

Ever since the end of the second world war, the US has been the main anchor for the liberal international trading system. Its policy agenda, including non-liberalising measures such as tightening intellectual property rights, has frequently been controversial. But there are few major initiatives in trade policy that do not have the US playing a central role.

自二战结束以来，美国便成为了国际自由贸易体系的中流砥柱。尽管其政策议程（包括收紧知识产权等非自由化措施）频频引起争议，但贸易政策中几乎所有重大举措都是由美国扮演主要角色。

This tradition is under threat from Donald Trump’s administration, which has abrogated the US’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a signed (but not yet ratified) deal with 11 other Asia-Pacific economies. His officials, including Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, have stated instead their preference for one-on-one deals, where the US can address its misguided ambition to use trade policy to reduce bilateral current account deficits.

这种传统现在正面临来自唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)政府的威胁。特朗普政府已宣布退出《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement，简称TPP），而此前美国已与其他11个亚太经济体完成了该协定的签署（但尚未获批）。包括商务部长威尔伯?罗斯(Wilbur Ross)在内的本届政府官员，都显示出了对于一对一协议的偏爱——美国可由此实现利用贸易政策来减少双边经常账户赤字这一非理性目标。

The initial reaction in the other TPP countries to the US’s withdrawal was one of shock and disappointment. Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, said the agreement would be “meaningless” without US participation. But now Japan, the second-largest economy in the pact, has changed its mind and suggested the other TPP nations go ahead without the US.

TPP其他成员国对于美国退出的最初反应是震惊和失望。日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)称，没有美国的参与，该协定将“毫无意义”。但如今，作为加入该协定的第二大经济体，日本已经改变了主意，认为其他成员国可以在没有美国参与的情况下继续推进TPP。

There are obvious problems with this course of action. Since the US is bigger than all the other TPP economies put together, its absence will heavily reduce the impact of the deal. Taking America out of the TPP is not as simple as deleting it from the agreed text: it will require a comprehensive revision of the agreement. And opening up the deal, particularly without the US pushing for far-reaching provisions, could mean it being painfully renegotiated and perhaps weakened.

这种做法的问题显而易见。由于美国的经济规模比TPP其他所有成员加起来的总量还要大，美国的退出将严重削弱该协定的影响力。美国退出TPP，绝非仅仅是把它从文本协议中删除那样简单，而是需要对协定进行全面修订。而继续推进该协定，特别是在没有美国推动意义深远的条款的情况下，将意味着对协定内容进行艰苦的重新谈判，协定的作用也可能遭到削弱。

Still, Japan’s attitude deserves praise. Initially, Mr Abe became involved in TPP largely to force domestic reform, particularly in agriculture, with the promise of more access to the US market as a trade-off. If he is prepared to do the former without the latter, it shows how the domestic debate in Japan has shifted. Second, if the US is not prepared to show leadership in maintaining and extending the trading system in Asia, it would be a welcome development for Japan to take up at least some of the running in its absence.

不过，日本的态度值得赞扬。最初，安倍参与TPP主要是为了推进国内改革，特别是农业方面的改革，以承诺扩大美国市场作为交换条件。如果他准备在该承诺失效的情况下继续推进，说明日本国内的讨论已发生了何种转向。第二，如果美国不打算在维持和扩展亚洲贸易体系方面继续起到带头作用，这对日本来说将是一个可喜的进展，至少可以在美国作用缺失的情况下接手部分领导力。

There is often overheated talk about China replacing the US as the trade policy hegemon in Asia, including through the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. This ignores the fact that, as the limited content of the RCEP shows, China is interested in little more than reducing goods tariffs to help its exporters. Deals led by Japan — and including advanced economies such as Australia and New Zealand — will at least address much more sophisticated issues relevant to modern commerce, including services and regulation.

有关中国将取代美国成为亚洲贸易政策霸主——包括通过拟议中的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,简称RCEP)——的讨论往往甚嚣尘上。这类讨论忽视了一个事实：正如RCEP有限的内容所表明的那样，中国仅对降低货物关税来帮助本国出口商有兴趣。由日本来牵头协定，再纳入澳大利亚和新西兰等发达经济体，至少会解决一些与现代商业（包括服务业和监管）相关的复杂得多的问题。

As for the US, it should be careful that its withdrawal from the TPP does not leave it isolated and allow others to usurp its role. Access to the US market is still a powerful lure, but if Tokyo can put together meaningful deals in the region it will feel less compelled to sign a bilateral with the US. In the meantime, a deal between Japan and the EU is well advanced, and European regulations in any case have a way of creeping into trading partners’ economies even without a formal trade deal.

至于美国，它应当心不要因为退出TPP而导致自己受到孤立，并且应该允许其他国家取代它的职责。进入美国市场仍然具有强大的吸引力，但如果日本能够在亚太地区达成一些重要协定，它会觉得与美国签订双边协议不再那么迫切。与此同时，日本和欧盟之间的协议进展顺利，反正欧洲的监管总有办法在不签订正式贸易协议的情况下悄悄进入贸易伙伴的经济内。

Japan’s TPP initiative shows that updating the trading system in Asia is not a failed project. Secondly, keeping TPP alive would mean that the US cannot count on being able to impose its will through a series of bilateral deals as long as a regional alternative exists. And Mr Abe may not have given up all hope of finding a way to coax the US back into the fold. There is, after all, always life after Mr Trump.

日本关于TPP的倡议表明，对亚洲贸易体系进行升级的努力并未失败。其次，继续推进TPP意味着，只要有一个可替代的区域协定存在，美国就不能指望通过一系列双边协议来强施所愿。此外，安倍也许尚未完全放弃诱使美国回到TPP的希望。毕竟，特朗普总有离开的一天。