特朗普神预测！瑞典真的出事了！

Saturday night, President Donald Trump held a rally in Melbourne, Florida, where he attempted to defend his controversial “Muslim ban” executive order by pointing to the consequences of migration in Europe. He focused on an unspecified event that took place “last night in Sweden”:

周六晚，唐纳德•特朗普总统在佛罗里达州墨尔本市举行了一次集会，集会上他把矛头指向了欧洲接受移民的后果，试图为他颇有争议的“穆斯林禁令”这一行政禁令辩护。他强调了“瑞典昨晚”发生的一次不明确的事件，他说：

When you look at what’s happening in Germany, when you look at what’s happening last night in Sweden — Sweden! Who would believe this? Sweden! They took in large numbers, they’re having problems like they never thought possible.

“你们看看德国正在发生什么，你们再瞧瞧昨晚瑞典发生了什么。瑞典！谁会相信是瑞典？瑞典！他们让大量难民涌入，正面临从未预料到的各种问题。”

The only problem is that nothing happened the prior night in Sweden. The reaction was swift and confused. @Sweden, a national Twitter account run by a different Swedish citizen each week, denied that anything happened. Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt tweeted, “Sweden? Terror attack? What has he been smoking?”

唯一的问题就是瑞典前一晚什么事都没发生。人们的反应非常迅速，而且人们都很困惑。@Sweden是一个Twitter账户，每周由不同的瑞典市民管理，这一账户否认了有事发生。瑞典前任首相Carl Bildt发表推文称：“瑞典？恐袭？他在乱喷什么？”

There’s a very real question going on here: What on earth was the president of the United States talking about? What does he think is going on in Sweden?

现在有一个非常现实的问题：美国总统究竟在说什么？他认为瑞典发生了什么？

Our best guess: Sweden’s alleged “rape epidemic”.

我们最有可能的猜测就是：外界宣称的“强奸盛行”。

There’s a clear narrative about Sweden: Muslim migrants are raping Swedish women at uNPRecedented numbers. These claims have even made it into mainstream outlets like National Review and Fox News. Friday night, Fox’s Tucker Carlson interviewed Ami Horowitz, a journalist who said that “from the onset of the refugee crisis, there was a surge in [Swedish] gun violence and rape.”

关于瑞典有一个明确的说法：穆斯林移民强奸瑞典妇女的案件数量史无前例。这些说法甚至进入了主流媒体，比如《National Review》和《福克斯资讯》。周五晚，《福克斯资讯》的塔克•卡森采访一位资讯工作者Ami Horowitz时，Ami Horowitz说：“自从第一次恐怖袭击开始，瑞典的枪支暴力和强奸率激增。”

The odds are that Trump heard one of these claims about a Swedish refugee rape epidemic somewhere — and appropriated them to justify his travel ban.

奇怪的是特朗普在某个地方听到了一个这种关于瑞典难民强奸案激增的言论，就用来为他的旅游禁令辩护。

Sweden has a higher official rape rate, because its police are better able to investigate and prosecute sexual violence. These panics about immigration, instead, reflect a long history of sexual panics in the West about nonwhite immigrants. The so-called “rape epidemic” is just something anti-immigrant campaigners have latched onto to justify their preexisting desire to shut the door on Muslim migration.

瑞典官方发布的强奸率比以往高，因为警察能更好地调查起诉性暴力。相反这些关于移民的恐慌反映了西方长期以来对于非白人移民的性恐慌。所谓的“强奸盛行”只是那些反移民运动者用来为他们一直存在的不接受穆斯林移民的愿望而辩护的工具。

Monday, Sweden’s current Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, in a joint press conference Monday with Canadian Governor General David Johnson, said of Mr. Trump’s comments: “Let me put it like this: I was, like many other I believe, surprised by the comments made about Sweden this weekend. Sweden like many other countries, we have opportunities, we have challenges, I believe that goes for every country in the world.”

周一瑞典现任首相Stefan Lofven在同加拿大David Johnson总督一起参加联合记者招待会时提到了特朗普先生的言论，他说：“这样说吧，我像很多我相信的人一样，对于本周末关于瑞典的评论感到震惊。瑞典像很多其他国家一样有机遇，也有挑战。我相信世界上每个国家都是如此。”

That very same evening, riots erupted in Sweden’s capital, Stockholm, in an area predominately inhabited by refugees. On Monday night for “over four hours, the crowd burned about half a dozen cars, vandalized several shopfronts and threw rocks at police. Police spokesman Lars Bystrom confirmed to Sweden’s Dagens Nyheter newspaper that an officer fired shots at a rioter but missed. A photographer for the newspaper was attacked by more than a dozen men and his camera was stolen, but ultimately no one was hurt or even arrested,” The Washington Post wrote.

当晚瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩一处以难民为主的聚居区就爆发了暴乱。《华盛顿邮报》报道，周一晚暴乱持续了四个多小时，暴乱分子烧毁了六辆汽车，砸了几家店面，还朝警察扔石头。警方发言人Lars Bystrom向瑞典《Dagens Nyheter》报纸证实了一名警察朝暴乱者开枪，但没打中。该报的一名摄影师被多人袭击，照相机被偷。但最终无人受伤或被捕。

In 2015, Sweden took in the largest number of refugees. Although the Swedish Crime Survey says the country’s crime rate has decreased since 2005, official statistics also show that foreign-born residents account for the lion’s share of crime in Sweden，the Washington Times has reported.

2015年瑞典涌入了大量难民。据《华盛顿时报》报道，虽然瑞典犯罪调查部门说瑞典的犯罪率从2005年起一直在下降，但官方数据也显示了外籍居民在瑞典犯罪案件中占很大比例。

Monday night offered a glimpse into those statistics. Guess Mr. Trump had a point, after all.

周一晚上的暴乱就印证了这些数据，这一局特朗普险胜。