冻土解冻 俄罗斯城市面临坍塌？

据俄罗斯报道，一项最新学术研究显示，由于气候变化，冻土解冻，建在俄罗斯西伯利亚永久冻土层之上的城市将在未来35年面临坍塌的威胁。据悉，63%的俄罗斯领土位于永久冻土层之上。到了2050年，最糟糕的情况可能是这些永久冻土层地区的土地承载力减少75%至95%。这将对这些城市产生毁灭性的影响。

Towns and cities across the east of Vladimir Putin's vast empire could 'collapse' in the coming decades because of thawing permafrost.

随着永久冻土的逐渐消融，弗拉基米尔•普京手中巨大帝国的东部城镇在未来几十年间可能会轰然倒塌。

Ground that was once solid is crumbling due to climate change, and the impact for buildings across Arctic and Siberian regions will be 'devastating' by 2050, says a new US-Russian report.

一篇美俄的最新报道称，由于气候的变化，曾经坚固的土地开始破裂，截止到2050年，北极地区和西伯利亚地区的建筑将会受到毁灭性的影响。

Problems are expected even sooner in Anadyr, the capital of the extreme eastern region on Chukotka, where Chelsea tycoon Roman Abramovich once served as governor.

阿纳德尔很快就会面临难题。阿纳德尔是俄罗斯东部楚科奇自治区首府，切尔西大亨罗曼•阿尔卡季耶维奇曾任区长。

Here problems can be expected by the mid-2020s, as they can in Salekhard, a town which straddles the Arctic Circle, gateway Russia's large gas supplies on the Yamal peninsula.

预计21世纪20年代中期，阿纳德尔将遇到问题。横跨北极圈的萨列哈尔德城是亚马尔半岛上俄罗斯大量天然气供应的枢纽，它也面临着同样的威胁。

At risk too from a stark weakening of the 'bearing capacity' of the ground are Russia's diamond capital Yakutsk and nickel mining city Norilsk.

俄罗斯钻石之都雅库茨克和镍矿开采城诺里尔斯克的土地承受能力显著下降，也面临危险。

The thaw has major implications for Russia since as much as 63 percent of Russian territory is underpinned by permafrost.

俄罗斯63%的领土都是靠永久冻土支撑，因此冻土消融对俄罗斯影响十分重大。

It is already hitting buildings in northern regions, making them unsafe, and has caused railway lines to become crooked, rendering them useless, reported The Siberian Times.

据报道，北部地区的建筑物已经受到影响，十分不安全，铁轨也因此变弯，无法再投入使用。

The analysis says a worst-case scenario could lead to a 75-95 percent 'reduction in bearing capacity throughout the permafrost region by 2050'.

分析称，最糟糕的情况将导致“到2050年，永久冻土地区的承受能力下降75%到95%”。

The authors conclude: 'This can have a devastating effect on cities built on permafrost.'

作者们总结说：“对于建立在永久冻土上的城市来说，这会产生毁灭性影响。”

Thawing of permafrost 'can potentially lead to deformation and collapse of structures', with residential and industrial buildings at risk, but also railway lines, which are used for industrial purposes as well as passengers.

无论是居民楼还是工业建筑，永久冻土解冻“可能会导致建筑结构的变形和倒塌”，货运和客运铁路线也无法幸免于难。

'On average, the fastest changes are projected for Salekhard and Anadyr.

“从大体上预计，萨列哈尔德和阿纳德尔的变化最快。”

'There the bearing capacity has potential to decrease to critical levels by (the) mid 2020s.

“21世纪20年代中期，萨列哈尔德和阿纳德尔的土体承受能力可能会下降到危险水平。”

'In Yakutsk and Norilsk the critical climate-induced decrease in bearing capacity is expected around (the) 2040s.'

“雅库茨克和诺里尔斯克由气候变化导致的土地承受能力严重下降预计将出现在21世纪40年代左右。”

The study by experts from The George Washington University and specialists from the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences highlighted these four cities but the threat applies across the vast permafrost territory.

由乔治华盛顿大学专家和俄罗斯科学研究院西伯利亚分院专业人员负责的研究重点指出这四个城市，但威胁已蔓延到了俄境内的大片永久冻土。

Numerous studies show the Russian Arctic is warming at a rate of approximately 0.12C (0.216F) a year - 'significantly faster than the global average', state the authors.

大量的研究表明，俄罗斯北极地区的气温每年大约以0.12°C (0.216°F)的速度不断升温——研究作者称，“这比全球平均升温速度快得多”。

The scale of the thawing in each location could vary and was hard to predict precisely.

每个地区冻土解冻的程度都不同，因此很难做出精确的预测。

And 'well engineered structures' could survive, but there was a need for a change in building techniques.

“建筑结构优质的大楼”不会因此倒塌，但是建筑技术需要做出改变。