Educated guess?

Reader question:

Please explain “educated guess”, as in: Economic forecasting is at best an educated guess.

My comments:

Economic forecasting is sophisticated guesswork. It is pretty sophisticated no doubt, but guesswork nonetheless.

That means the forecasting can be wrong. You can’t always rely on it.

Economic forecasting is like weather forecasting and we all understand that weather forecasting isn’t always correct. Weather forecasters gather and analyze all sorts of data, such as heat waves coming to and fro, rainy clouds forming up here and there, winds blowing hither and thither, so on and so forth. They even have the assistance of satellites these days. Therefore forecasters are able to predict pretty much accurately when and where it’s going to rain and things of that nature.

However, no matter how educated are the forecasters and sophisticated their equipment, weather forecasters know this as well as we do, that weather forecast can’t always be right.

Nature is capricious and rightfully so. In plainer terms, there are always some unforeseen forces at work – either unforeseen or unnoticed or ignored.

Anyways, “educated guess” refers to a conclusion one reaches based on all the knowledge one has on a given subject. In other words, an educated guess is not a wild guess, a verdict reached without hesitation or careful thought.

Educated as in “educated tastes”. When we say someone has very educated tastes in wine, for instance, we suggest that they’re intelligent because they’ve been well taught and trained, and therefore have a high standard or judgment on the subject, having probably downed gallons of the drink also, to be sure.

In short, an educated guess is not a random guess, one that is tossed up without the guess maker giving it any thought.

The guesswork, for example, of Paul the octopus who successfully predicted winners in several matches in the current World Cup are random guesses.

Paul’s predictions are not educated guesses for sure.

And that’s probably why they’ve been accurate.

Because, for one thing, the octopus is detached to the outcome. The twirly crawly creature doesn’t give a hoot whether he is right. Nor is he worried about being cooked alive if he gets a result wrong – as some German fans threatened to do after Paul successfully picked Spain who ran out 1-0 winners over Germany in their semifinal matchup. He does it for the fun that’s in it, whatever fun that is in it.

Economic or weather forecasters, on the other hand, don’t have this type of calm-as-water state of mind. In fact, they’re often pretty vain. Some scientists won’t mind lying if it’s financially rewarding for them to do so. A scientist, for example, can get paid to say that tobacco is not dangerous, or global warming doesn’t exist. Hence and therefore, when it comes to making educated guesses under such circumstances, all their fine education, state-of-the-art facilities and equipment become of little avail.

Alright, let’s quit knocking educated guess makers. Here are media examples of “educated guess” instead:

1. A Cornell University professor with a love for soccer has used math and statistics to predict Brazil will win soccer's World Cup.

“Mathematically speaking, right now, Brazil has the best odds,” Chris Anderson said Thursday in a telephone interview.

Anderson admits his pick is just an educated guess, but he’s willing to back it up by putting cash on Brazil when the 32-team tournament opens Friday in South Africa.

“I am going to put some money down,” he said.

“I’m not going to bet the farm (but) enough to make it worth while. Otherwise, what is the point?”

In making his selection, Anderson computed several factors. He looked at the FIFA world rankings, which have Brazil No. 1; the country’s history of winning a record five championships; and the effect of the tournament being held in South Africa.

Still, choosing Brazil isn’t exactly going out on a limb. Many fans sitting in a bar could make the same pick.

What Anderson does is ignore passion and personalities. He looks at numbers and cold facts.

“I don’t look at who is on the roster right now,” he said. “I don’t look at who has had any injuries. I don’t look at the last time (the teams) played.

“It’s devoid of any of that kind of information.”

Anderson’s analyses and predictions are contained on his blogwww.soccerquantified.com.

- Educated guess has Brazil winning World Cup, The Canadian Press, June 3, 2010.

2. No matter how versed you are in the world of wine there will always be labels and brands that you’ve never tried, but when faced with ordering from a list of wines that you’ve never heard of it is possible to make a more educated selection than simply reading what the menu says and then choosing between a cabernet or a merlot. The key is in knowing where the wine was made.

#1 Hot vs Cool Climate Grapes grown in warmer climates tend to be lower in acidity and higher in sugar, which results in fuller-bodied wine. Cooler climates more often yield the opposite with grapes having higher acidity and less sugar, so the end product is lighter-bodied. This climate rule can be derailed, however, by local variances like a south facing vineyard that’s warmer than average for the surrounding area, or by certain breeds of grape (some are consistently flavored no matter where they’re grown).

#2 Old World vs New World Another good rule of thumb is that generally speaking traditional Old World (European) wines tend to the earthier, spicier side while New World (United States, Argentina, South Africa, anywhere not Europe) varieties are fruitier. Again, this rule does not always apply as the occasional New World winemaker may aspire to Old World techniques, or a European might deliberately create a fruit-forward variety to tap into that market.

So in applying these two rules you could make an educated guess that a cabernet from South Africa is probably fuller bodied than a cabernet from Yarra Valley in Australia, but that neither is likely to be as earthy as a cabernet listed from France.

- How to Make an Educated Guess When Ordering Wine, Luxist.com, March 28, 2010.