时事资讯:美国经济回升缓慢导致美元下跌

【英文原文】

Currency Trading: Dollar in a Funk as Traders Bet on Slow Rebound

The U.S. currency fell sharply against most major rivals Tuesday, as optimistic investors bet that the rest of the world will pull out of recession faster than will the U.S.

On the first full trading day after the summer holiday season wrapped up, the dollar hit its lowest point this year against the euro during London trading.

Late afternoon in New York, the euro was buying $1.4489, up from $1.4342 late Monday. The greenback is trading at about the same level as before the collapse of Lehman Brothers almost one year ago. The dollar also fell against the yen and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars.

'You are seeing a notable breakdown in the dollar,' says Paul Mackel, senior currency strategist at HSBC in London. 'The fact that the dollar is out of the well-established ranges with several currencies has gotten investors jumpy.'

Meanwhile, gold, which often moves in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar, moved above the symbolic $1,000 per troy ounce, its highest since February, before slipping back. Investors often buy gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation. Front-month September gold late afternoon in New York was at $995.

Currency analysts say the dollar's slide has room to run now that it has broken free of recent trading ranges. Several are predicting the euro will test $1.50 by the end of the year. Mr. Mackel also sees continued strength, in particular, for the Australian dollar, which is backed by a healthy economy and exposure to a rebounding China. He says the Aussie currency could reach near parity with the U.S. dollar by the end of 2010. Late afternoon Tuesday it was trading at US$0.8620, up from US$0.8560.

Friday's U.S. jobs report was a significant factor in the dollar's fall. The U.S. unemployment rate hit 9.7% in August, and that means the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.

Meantime, positive economic news from Australia, Korea, Taiwan, and Europe confirmed views among currency traders that those places will likely be forced to raise interest rates before the U.S. in order to prevent their economies from overheating. Higher interest rates mean better returns for those countries' currencies.

'The core problem for the dollar remains that risk appetite is good, U.S. interest rates are extremely low, and the Fed has done a good job telling us they will stay low a long time,' says Ray Farris, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Suisse in London. 'The market is under a lot of pressure to seek yield on investments. There is no yield in the U.S.'

Indeed, Tuesday's dollar drop came on a day when the cost to borrow the U.S. currency over the longer-term hit a new low. Data from the British Bankers' Association showed the three-month dollar Libor fell to 0.30188% from Monday's 0.30875%. That is the lowest since that index was introduced in 1986.

In some ways, investors are using dollars to reprise a strategy that helped weaken the Japanese yen for much of the decade -- what is known as the carry trade. With interest rates in the U.S. as low as anywhere and expected to stay low, investors can borrow in dollars and buy higher-yielding currencies or emerging-market stocks. Stock markets in Asia and Europe were up broadly Tuesday.

Also gnawing at the dollar is continuing chatter about its role as the world's reserve currency. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development released a report Monday that said the dollar-centric global economy is 'increasingly challenged' and suggested the world move to a more internationally based currency system.