gre argument 提纲(四)

　　16.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.

　　Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucrias public health program treats far more people than our states program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling.

　　A、L地区能够花费能多的钱在教育上以及医疗项目能够是能多人受益，并不一定是由于L地区的彩票。可能L地区本身的经济就比较发达，政府在教育和医疗上的拨款数额比I地区大，还可能是L地区政府的教育和医疗的重视度比较高。即使L地区在教育和医疗上的进步是由于彩票，也是过去两年的情况，并不能够保证今后还能继续发展下去。

　　B、即使L地区能够继续这样发展下去，I地区采用同样的方法后，也不一定能够成功。因为两个地区存在着很多不同，例如I地区的居民不太喜欢购买彩票，或者说I地区的居民收入不太高，他们不太会在彩票上投入资金。另外，I地区实行彩票后，可能会带来一些负面影响，例如有些居民可能会沉溺于彩票当中，从而耽误了正常的工作和生活。

　　C、文中的调查是否具有说服力值得商榷，作者并没有交待该调查的样本基数以及样本是否随机化。如果样本基数不够或者样本选择缺乏随机性，则该调查不具有说服力。另外，该调查只在Capital City进行，并不能够代表I地区。即使该调查具有说服力，I地区平均人均花费$50在赌博上，I地区的居民也未必会将这些钱用于购买彩票。赌博和彩票属于两个不同的概念。

　　17.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.

　　Walnut Groves town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABCs fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last years town survey agreed that they were satisfied with EZs performance.

　　A、ABC每周收集一次垃圾，EZ每周收集两次，这并不表明ABC就要比EZ差。ABC虽然频数小，可是他们收集的效果可能要好，例如收集得更干净，服务态度更好;而EZ虽然每周收集两次，但是他们可能收集地不太干净。另外，一周收集两次是否对于WG镇是需要的，这点作者也没有说清楚。

　　B、EZ订购了额外的卡车，但作者并没有说明ABC现在的计划，可能ABC也在订购额外的卡车。即使ABC不订购额外的卡车，但是ABC现有的20辆卡车可能比较新，运载能力比EZ的卡车强。

　　C、怀疑调查样本的基数以及选择的随机性。如果这两个不能够满足的话，该调查就不具有说服力。另外，调查者是否说了真话?如果该调查采用了有利益的方式，则被调查者很可能因为最求利益而说假话。即使该调查具备上面说的条件，具有说服力，该调查也只能反映1年前的情况，并不能够代表现在的情况。

　　18.The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.

　　In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.

　　A、首先，大部分驾驶员超速以及事故率下降很小，并不能够表明P郡的这项措施失败了。因为超速可能是由于该限速规则刚刚推出，或者P郡政府对该项新规则宣传力度不够，驾驶员对此并不了解。事故率下降很小，可能是由于P郡正处于多雨雪的季节，道路状况比较差，容易引发交通事故。

　　B、B郡去年交通事故减少25%，作者并没有给出交通事故的基数。如果该基数很小，那么减少25%并不能够说明B郡的交通变得安全了，例如如果基数只有4，那么减少一起事故就减少了25%。作者没有说明B郡的该项措施是成功的。即使25%说明了B郡的交通确实变得比原来安全了，也未必是由于B郡的道路车道变宽了和路面重铺了。可能是由于B郡去年的气候变化了，例如降水或降雪的天数减少。

　　C、即使B郡的交通变安全是因为B郡采取的这些措施，P郡效仿后也未必能够起到同样的效果。因为两个郡的交通状况不尽相同。例如P郡的交通路线要比B郡拥有更多的易发生交通事故的危险路段，P郡的气候要比B郡多雨雪等。

　　19.The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.

　　One year ago, tickets for Double Rices concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the bands increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the bands success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale.

　　A、DR在全国的演唱会门票平均需要至少24小时销售完，并不意味着DR在M地区是如此。在M地区，DR可能拥有比其他地区更多的歌迷或者追溯着，或者，DR的门票可能比较昂贵，而M地区的居民普遍比较富裕，能够支付得起。可能去年在M地区的销售速度比12分钟还要短。

　　B、即使DR在M地区门票销售也是如此，那也只是一年前的了，正如作者所说，现在DR在14至25岁的人群那种已经掀起了一股热潮，因此在M地区12分钟售完门票未必就和广告商有关。即使广告商不宣传，DR的追随者也会踊跃购买门票。作者并没有说明其中的联系。

　　C、即使DR门票在12分钟内售完和AL公司的广告活动有关，那也仅是在M地区，在其他地区就未必能够成功，不一定适合在全国范围内推广。AL公司可能对M地区居民的喜好比较了解，而AL公司未必对其他地区的居民的喜好有所了解。

　　20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

　　The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the islands six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseaus town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.

　　A、作者并没有交待当前这六家公司日出租数，如果该数本来就小于30，那么这则规定将不起任何作用。

　　B、作者错误地假设了B岛的交通事故会增加是因为道路上摩托车和自行车数量多引起的。事实上可能是由于该岛的道路交通设施，也可能是由于行人不遵守交通规则等等

　　C、作者并没有交待T岛交通事故下降50%的基数，如果该基数很小的话，则不能够说明T岛的该措施是成功的。例如基数只有2的话，即使只是减少1，也会有50%的下降比率。即使T岛的交通确实变得安全了，也未必是由于实行了该措施导致的，可能是由于T岛去年的气候比较好，雨雪天气少。即使确实是该措施导致，那也是去年的数据，今年未必能够同样有效。

　　D、即使该措施对于T岛今年同样有效，B岛确实是由于道路上摩托车和自行车数量多引起交通事故，B岛采取T岛一样的措施后也未必能够成功。T岛和B岛的情况不尽相同。B岛采取限制后，并不一定能够减少道路上的自行车和摩托车的数量，人们可能会选择自己去购买自行车或者摩托车。