驶往东方的大邮轮

More than 1m Chinese will go on a cruise holiday thisyear — nearly five times as many as in 2012 — astatistic that has whipped the global industry into a record expansion of ship orders and acollective decision to sail the world’s largest and most luxurious mega-vessels eastward.

今年，将有100万以上的中国人乘坐邮轮度假——较2012年增加近4倍——这一数字促使全球邮轮业创下了新增船舶订单记录，同时使得邮轮公司纷纷作出决定，将全球最大最豪华的巨型邮轮驶向东方。

But the optimism of the cruise companies may be outpacing the reality of the Chinese boom:travel agents have had to deeply discount in order to fill some new ships.

但是，邮轮公司对中国邮轮旅游热的乐观预期或许超前于现实了：旅行社得打极低折扣才能保证一些新邮轮的入住率。

Ship brokers tracking the past two decades of market activity say that in recent months, globalcruise ship investment has entered a new phase. But that observation comes with warningsfrom the past — explosive expansions of the cruise order book in 1999 and 2006 werefollowed by equally spectacular busts.

追踪了该行业过去二十年市场活动的船舶经纪商称，最近几个月，全球邮轮投资进入了一个新阶段。但与此同时，过去的经验也向我们发出了警告——1999年和2006年邮轮订单爆炸性增长后，都曾出现惨烈的订单萎缩。

The traditional market will continue to depend on the retirement spending of baby boomers inthe west but the growth outlook will be shaped by an Asian middle class bursting to spend theirmoney and comparatively short vacations at sea. The question this time is whether theestablishment of new Chinese brands and the development of Asian ports will make for a lessbust-prone pattern.

传统市场将继续依赖于西方婴儿潮一代退休人士的支出，但是该行业的增长前景将由渴望把钱和相对较短的假期花在海上的亚洲中产阶级决定。眼下的问题是，中国新品牌的创建和亚洲港口的开发是否将有助于创建一种不那么容易破灭的发展模式。

After an unprecedented 50 per cent year-on-year surge of orders in 2015, the market isexpected to add an additional 146,000 passenger berths by 2020.

在2015年订单前所未有地同比大增50%之后，预计到2020年该市场将增加14.6万个铺位。

North American and European passengers account for 85 per cent of the global cruise marketof 22m passengers a year. But the signals of change are clear.

北美和欧洲乘客占据着全球邮轮市场每年2200万乘客的85%。但是，如今已经出现了明显的改变信号。

The Chinese government has thrown its weight behind the cruise industry and expects that4.5m of its citizens will be taking a cruise each year by 2020. A more conservative predictionfrom Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, is for 3m annual passengers, or 10 per cent of themarket.

中国政府支持邮轮业发展，它预计到2020年，每年将有450万中国人乘坐邮轮。投行摩根士丹利(MorganStanley)所做的较为保守的预测是，中国每年将有300万人乘坐邮轮，占全球邮轮市场的10%。

In South Korea and Japan, which are a few days’ sea voyage from Shanghai and Tianjin, localports are racing to expand their facilities to accommodate the new class of mega-ships, whichcould carry more than 6,000 passengers.

在韩国和日本(从上海和天津出发，走海路只需几天就能到达)，各地方港口正竞相扩建基础设施，以容纳可搭载逾6000名乘客的新型巨轮。

The major cruise companies, led by Carnival and Royal Caribbean, which together account for 80per cent of the Chinese market, have begun sending new vessels to be permanently based inthe east and fitted out with more shopping, more casinos and enclosed sun decks to tailor tolocal needs.

以嘉年华公司(Carnival)和皇家加勒比邮轮集团(Royal Caribbean)——两家公司总共占据了中国市场80%的份额——为首的主要邮轮公司，已经开始派遣新邮轮常驻东方，同时配备了更多的购物场所、赌场以及封闭式日光浴场以满足当地需求。

Last week, Carnival doubled the number of its cruise brands in China to four, with two newships arriving by 2017. Arnold Donald, chief executive, says the company wanted to offer“choice and variety to match “the different tastes and preferences of Chinese travellers.

日前，嘉年华公司将其在中国的邮轮品牌增加一倍至4个，到2017年还将有2艘新邮轮抵达中国。其首席执行官阿诺德唐纳德(Arnold Donald)称，该公司希望提供“多种多样的选择，以满足“中国旅客不同的品味和偏好。

He adds that Carnival may also launch a joint venture with the China State ShipbuildingCorporation and China Merchants Group to build a domestic Chinese cruise brand.

他补充称，嘉年华可能还将与中国船舶工业集团公司(China State Shipbuilding Corporation)和中国招商局集团(China Merchants Group)共同创办一家合资企业，来打造中国本土邮轮品牌。

Royal Caribbean has sent its most advanced ships to China, complete with high-speedinternet, smart bracelets for payments, a 300ft high viewing pod, robot bartenders, a rockclimbing wall, bumper cars and a skydiving wind tunnel, in order to appeal to every generationof Chinese families.

皇家加勒比已经将其最先进的邮轮派往中国，船上配有高速网络、智能支付手环、300英尺高的摇臂观景舱、机器人调酒师、攀岩墙、碰碰车以及可玩甲板跳伞的垂直风洞，以吸引中国家庭中各代人的兴趣。

The clearest evidence of the shift, say researchers at the UK-based brokerage Clarksons, hasbeen orders for cruise ships hitting an all-time high. The worldwide order-book as of September1 stands at 41 ships, with a combined value of about $26bn. Once financing and technicalissues are settled on orders placed by Celebrity, Virgin, MSC and Crystal — probably within thenext few months — the total will jump to 51.

总部位于英国的船舶经纪商Clarksons的研究员称，这一转变最明显的证据是邮轮订单创下历史新高。截至9月1日，全球邮轮订单量为41艘，总价值约为260亿美元。一旦精致邮轮(Celebrity)、维珍邮轮(Virgin)、地中海邮轮(MSC)、水晶邮轮(Crystal)所下订单的融资和技术问题得以解决——很可能在未来数月内解决——全球邮轮订单总数将增至51艘。

In the southern Japanese town of Fukuoka — a destination that has proven popular as adestination for Chinese shoppers — the port operator is lobbying the central Japanesegovernment to allow it to extend the jetties by an additional 330 metres to accommodatethe new Oasis class of cruise ship. Of the 1m Chinese forecast to take a cruise some time in2015, about a quarter called at Fukuoka. A year ago, the port received 99 cruise ships; thisyear it will receive 251.

在日本南部的福冈——受到中国购物者喜爱的目的地——港口运营商正游说日本中央政府允许其将码头额外扩宽330米，以容纳新型绿洲级邮轮。预计2015年将有100万中国游客搭乘邮轮，其中约有四分之一的人停靠福冈。一年前，该港口接待了99艘邮轮;而今年将接待251艘。

Gianni Onorato, chief executive of Switzerland-based MSC Cruises, warned that the pace ofinvestment might not be rapid enough.

总部位于瑞士的地中海邮轮的首席执行官詹尼攠诺拉托(Gianni Onorato)警告称，投资速度或许还不够快。

“For sure there will be these millions of Chinese taking a cruise. The main challenge is aboutnot so much the development of ports and destinations inside China, but outside of China, hesays. “Because of the geography it depends on Japan and Korea and so far no one is seeingthe same speed of development.

“肯定将会有数百万中国游客搭乘邮轮。主要的挑战不在于中国国内港口和旅游目的地的开发，而在于中国以外的，他称，“由于地理位置的关系，这将取决于日本和韩国在这方面的开发，而到目前为止这两个国家还没有出现同样的开发速度。

Relying on China is also a potentially risky strategy. Several ships had to cancel their cruisesto South Korea, one of a handful of key destinations, after an outbreak of the Mers virus thisyear. And the anti-Japan riots of 2012 caused havoc with itineraries. Royal Caribbean did notvisit any Japanese ports during spring and summer 2013.

依靠中国市场也是一个存在潜在风险的策略。今年在MERS疫情爆发后，一些邮轮不得不取消其前往韩国(为数不多的主要目的地之一)的行程。而2012年的反日风波严重影响了部分邮轮的行程。2013年春夏两季，皇家加勒比的邮轮没有停靠过任何一个日本港口。

Another big challenge, however, will be adapting their offering to the Chinese tastes. MrOnorato, for example, pointed out that food is a key part of Chinese culture but consumerstake a different approach to their western counterparts. “There is no clear separation ofbreakfast, lunch and dinner, he says, adding that the company is partnering with leading chefsto modify its food service.

然而，另一个重大挑战将是如何提供符合中国人喜好的服务。例如，奥诺拉托指出，吃是中国文化的关键组成部分，但是中国消费者的餐饮习惯又与西方人不同。“中国的早餐、午餐和完成没有明显的区分，他表示，并补充称地中海邮轮正在与中国顶尖的厨师合作调整其餐饮服务。

Mr Onorato adds that MSC is creating a new position of “cruise ambassador, a person whowould act as a “tutor of small groups of customers and accompany them throughout a trip.The company is “working now with two main partners for sourcing of crew and training.

奥诺拉托补充道，地中海邮轮正在打造“游轮使者的全新职位——使者们将“指导和照顾一组组顾客，全程陪伴他们。该公司如今有“两个主要合作伙伴，帮助它招聘人员和开展培训。