谁说特朗普不可能当选美国总统

It is February 2016 and the sky is falling on ourheads. Donald Trump has just won the Iowa caucusand the New Hampshire primary. Those who predicted he would have long since imploded arescrambling to fallback positions. He will flame out on Super Tuesday, they insist. He will beejected by primary voters in Jeb Bush’s Florida in March, they add.

现在是2016年2月，我们头顶的天好像快塌下来了。唐纳德礠朗普(Donald Trump)刚刚在爱荷华州的党团会议上获胜，并且赢得了新罕布什尔州的初选。那些早就预言他会失败的人正争先恐后地找寻退路。他们坚称，他会在“超级星期二熄火。他们又补充，3月份他会在杰布布什(Jeb Bush)的佛罗里达州被初选选民抛出局。

If worst comes to worst, he will meet his Waterloo at the Republican convention in July — thefirst such brokered event in decades. Fear not, wise heads will reassure us, that man couldnever be president of the United States.

如果最糟糕的事态发生，特朗普将在7月份的共和党全国代表大会上遭遇滑铁卢——这是数十年以来首次通过党内协商提名候选人。有智之士将向我们保证，别害怕，这个人永远不会成为美利坚合众国的总统。

Like a stopped clock, conventional wisdom must eventually be right on Mr Trump. It goeswithout saying that sane people should hope so. Last week two of the billionaire’s moreinflamed supporters beat up a homeless Hispanic man. All Mr Trump could initially say wasthat his followers were “passionate. Make no mistake, the property tycoon who would bepresident is an unpleasant piece of work.

就像不走的钟一天也能对上两次，对于特朗普的一般看法最终必然是正确的。不必说，理智的人都应该希望如此。上周，这位亿万富翁的两名情绪较为激昂的支持者殴打一名无家可归的拉丁裔男子。特朗普最初的表态不过是他的追随者很“富于激情。毫无疑问，这名可能当上总统的地产大亨是个令人不愉快的家伙。

Conservatives should be especially worried. His plans to round up and deport the estimated11.5m undocumented immigrants would require the federal power of a police state. His plan toscrap the 14th amendment’s birthright to US citizenship would corrode America’s soul.

保守派大概尤为忧虑。特朗普逮捕并驱逐据估计1150万非法移民的计划需要一个警察国家的联邦权力。他取消宪法第14条修正案出生公民权的计划将会腐蚀美国的灵魂。

Yet he must be taken seriously. At first the view was that Mr Trump was merely the flavour ofthe month. People compared his sudden ascent to the 2012 Republican contest when adifferent outlier appeared to surge into the lead with each news cycle. One minute it was MicheleBachmann, the hardline Christian conservative from Minnesota. Next it was Herman Cain, theformer pizza king with his zany “999 tax plan. Then it was Newt Gingrich, the former Housespeaker. And so on. But it turned out all right in the end, as it always does. The establishmentprevailed and Mitt Romney took the nomination.

然而，对特朗普不应等闲视之。一开始，人们认为他不过是一时走红。人们将他的突然崛起和2012年大选共和党党内的角逐相比，当时每一轮资讯周期都会出现一个不同的异数突然占据领先位置。这一刻还是米歇尔巴赫曼(Michele Bachmann)，来自明尼苏达州的基督教强硬派保守主义者。下一刻就变成了赫尔曼凯恩(HermanCain)，提出古怪的“999税收计划的前披萨大王。再下一刻是前众议院议长纽特金里奇(Newt Gingrich)，等等。但一如既往，最后结果还不错。共和党内的当权派胜出，米特圠姆尼(Mitt Romney)得到了总统侯选人提名。

Why should this time be any different? Because it already is. Mr Trump has now consistentlytopped the polls for several weeks. When people are restless for a new flavour, they do notlinger for so long on one. Nor can Trumpmania be attributed to people not paying attention.Quite the opposite: they are gripped.

这一次为什么不同?因为已经有所不同了。特朗普已经连续数周在民意调查中占据榜首。当人们焦躁地寻求一种新口味的时候，他们不会在一种口味上流连这么久。“特朗普热也不能归结于人们没有关注。恰恰相反：他们被吸引住了。

The Republican debate this month had 24m viewers — the highest ratings for a non-sportingevent in US cable television history. It was also Fox News’s most watched programme ever. Ittook in almost four times as many viewers as the previous record for a Republican primarydebate (6.7m in late 2011). Doubtless many were tuning in with blood sport, rather thanpolitics, in mind. Yet Mr Trump’s lead has solidified since then.

本月共和党的电视辩论有2400万观众——这是美国有线电视有史以来非体育节目获得的最高收视率。这还是有史以来福克斯资讯(Fox News)观看人数最多的节目。该节目吸引的观众是上一次共和党初选辩论收视人数创纪录时(2011年末的670万)的近4倍。无疑，许多人收看这一节目是为了看政客间打个“头破血流，而不是政治。然而，特朗普的领先地位在这之后稳固下来。

Political veterans say some event will occur to bring Mr Trump’s meteor down to earth. It willhave to be something special. Every time he makes a gaffe his numbers seem to improve.Whether he is making derogatory remarks about fellow Republicans, Hispanics, popular femaletelevision anchors, or women in general, that bird has flown. In spite of his three marriages anda tendency to talk about women as sex objects, he polls well with Christian conservatives. MrTrump’s popularity is based in part on his willing obnoxiousness. His brand subverts alllaws of campaign propriety. It is hard to think of what he could say, or do, that wouldundermine that.

一些资深政治人士表示，将会发生一些事件，让特朗普这颗一飞冲天的流星跌落到地面。这必须是一些特别的事件。每次他失言，他的支持率似乎都在上升。不管他诋毁的是共和党同僚、拉丁裔、当红电视女主持人，还是女性这个整体，他都逃脱了罪责。尽管他有三次婚姻，还有把女性说成性玩物的倾向，他在基督教保守主义人士中的民调结果很好。他的人气部分基于他恣意地招人厌恶。他的招牌颠覆了所有竞选礼仪准则。很难想象他的何种言论或者举动会削弱他的人气。

All of which is confusing. Washington pundits are a bit like those dazed cops in Basic Instinctwatching Sharon Stone light up a cigarette. What are we going to do? Arrest him?

一切都令人疑惑。华盛顿的专家们有点像是电影《本能》(Basic Instinct)中茫然地看着莎朗斯通(SharonStone)点燃一支香烟的警察。我们要干什么?逮捕他吗?

That brings us to the final line of defence — the brokered convention. With 17 candidatescompeting and none, other than Mr Trump, having yet sustained a lead, the chances werealready tilting towards one.

这让我们退到了最后一道防线——党内协调的共和党代表大会。有17名候选人参与角逐，除了特朗普以外，还没有一个人长时间保持领先，机会已经向一个人倾斜。

Even without Mr Trump, this is the most fractured and fractious Republican field in moderntimes. Let us suppose Mr Trump wins a quarter of the delegates in the primaries and theremaining three-quarters are distributed between Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio — andperhaps Ted Cruz and John Kasich.

即使没有特朗普，这也是现代最支离破碎，最难以驾驭的共和党角逐场了。我们假设特朗普在初选中赢得了四分之一的代表的支持，剩下四分之三则分布在杰布布什、斯科特茠克(Scott Walker)、马可脠比奥(MarcoRubio)——或许还有特德克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)和约翰愠罓奇(John Kasich)身上。

Add them all up and Mr Trump could easily be ejected. But that supposes the rest havecoalesced around one standard bearer. It is easy to imagine Mr Rubio awarding his delegatesto Mr Bush, or vice versa. But what about Mr Cruz, the Tea Party-backed senator from Texas?The establishment can only prevail if it agrees.

把他们加在一起，可以轻而易举地让特朗普出局。但这预先假设了其他人会以一个旗手为核心联合起来。不难想象马可脠比奥将支持自己的代表转给杰布布什，反过来也有可能。但获得茶党支持的得克萨斯州参议员特德克鲁兹呢?共和党的当权派只有达成一致才能成功。

Let us suppose it does and Mr Bush emerges from a bitter few days of horse-trading as theRepublican nominee. What will Mr Trump do then? Admit that the game is up after a fair fight?Or enter the field as a third-party candidate? My money would be on the latter.

假设他们的确达成一致，杰布布什经过数日艰苦的讨价还价脱颖而出，获得了共和党总统候选人提名。特朗普会做些什么?承认在一场公平的较量之后游戏结束了?还是以第三党候选人的身份参选?我赌会发生后一种情况。

There would be all sorts of technical difficulties in putting his name on the ballot at that latestage. But cash goes a long way and Mr Trump has plenty.

要让他的名字出现在最后阶段的投票箱上，存在各种各样的技术困难。但金钱对此大有帮助，而特朗普有很多钱。

More to the point, he has ego. People debate Mr Trump’s ideology. Some say he is nativist.Others say he is a moderate conservative with a nasty streak. The truth is he is making it upas he goes along. Mr Trump has always been about Mr Trump. If he made it to a brokeredconvention he would not stop there.

更重要的是，他很自负。人们就特朗普的意识形态展开辩论。一些人说他是本土主义者。还有人说他是个有点讨厌的温和派保守主义者。真相是，他只管走自己的路。特朗普从来都是以特朗普为中心。如果他真的成功走到党内协调代表大会的阶段，他不会就此止步。

As regards predictions, I will risk one more. Mr Trump will never be president of the US. Indeed,he is already halfway to ensuring that none of his Republican rivals will get there either.

至于预测，我要冒险再做一次。特朗普永远不会成为美国总统。事实上，在确保他的共和党内竞争对手一个也当不了总统方面，他已经成功了一半。