长城汽车需要新动力

When Hong Kong and China were reunified in 1997,the mantra was “one country, two systems. Companies with listings in both jurisdictions arestill feeling the consequences.

1997年香港回归中国时，“一国两制的说法不绝于耳。在中国内地和香港两地上市的公司至今仍能感受到这一原则的影响。

Great Wall Motor is a good example. The Chinese carmaker is to sell up to 387m new China-listed A shares to raise $2.7bn. The proceeds will go towards research and development, andcomponent production for “new energy vehicles, such as hybrids and electric cars. It lagsbehind peers in that market.

长城汽车(Great Wall Motor)就是一个很好的例子。这家中国汽车制造商将新发行至多3.87亿股A股，筹资27亿美元。筹资所得将用于“新能源汽车(例如混合动力汽车和电动汽车)的研发和零部件生产。该公司在新能源汽车领域落后于同行。

A shares closed up 5 per cent on the news. But Great Wall also has a Hong Kong listing; its Hshares fell about 13 per cent, leaving them almost 40 per cent below the issue price.

受此消息影响，长城汽车A股昨日收涨5%。但该公司还在香港上市;其H股下跌约13%，收盘价较上述发行价低了近40%。

Hong Kong may be deemed a more rational market, based on greater institutionalinvolvement (and less government intervention), but even the H-share drop seems mild.Trading in the shares was stopped on June 19, meaning Great Wall sat out a 10 per cent dropin the H-share index. And there are other reasons — beyond the dilution — to be cautious.May sales were disappointingly soft; there was no rebound in June and pricing has suffered asinternational brands offer discounts.

香港可能被视为是一个更理性的市场，依据是机构参与度较大(而且政府干预较少)，但对长城汽车来说，即便是其H股的跌幅也显得较为温和。6月19日，长城汽车股票停牌，这意味着，该公司未受H股指数下跌10%牵连。除了股权被稀释以外，投资者还有其他理由保持谨慎。该公司5月份销量疲软，令人失望;6月份销量不见反弹，同时由于跨国汽车品牌提供价格折扣，该公司的产品定价存在压力。

These trends may worsen in the short term as prices have little scope to rise. Great Wall hasnew models due soon but recent launches have failed to bolster volumes. Earnings forecastshave been coming down: estimates for this year and next have dropped nearly one-tenth eachsince early June.

短期来看，这些趋势可能会加剧，因为价格几乎没有上涨空间。长城汽车很快将推出新车型，但其近期推出的车型未能提振销量。该公司的盈利预期被下调：自6月初以来，对今明两年的盈利预期已分别下调近十分之一。

New investment is critical for Great Wall to find growth. It is backing the right product: China’sstate council wants unit sales of new energy vehicles to grow nearly 70-fold to 5m by 2020.Great Wall’s component investment implies 500,000 units by 2018.

新投资对于长城汽车实现增长至关重要。这些资金将投向正确的产品：中国国务院希望，到2020年时，新能源汽车销量达到500万辆，较目前水平增加近70倍。从长城汽车零部件生产投资计划来看，到2018年时其新能源汽车产量将达到50万辆。

Rewards may be some time in coming. At least the shares are not egregiously overvalued; eventhe more racy A shares trade at 10 times 2016 earnings forecasts. The cheaper H sharesclosed at a mere 6 times.

获得回报可能需要一段时间。至少，该公司股价没有被过分高估：以2016年预期盈利计算，即便是其更具活力的A股的市盈率也仅为10倍;价格较低的H股的预期市盈率就更低了，只有6倍。