中国作为制造业投资首选地的魅力下降

China is still the most favoured manufacturingdestination in the emerging markets. But otherdeveloping countries such as Mexico and Indonesia are showing promise.

中国仍是新兴市场中最受青睐的制造业投资目的地。但墨西哥和印度尼西亚等其他发展中国家开始显现出潜质。

Over the past decade, China reigned comfortably atop the list of destinations for greenfieldmanufacturing facilities by foreign companies, with its level of inbound capital investment onmanufacturing projects dwarfing that of other developing countries. Since 2005, China hasreceived three times the number of projects and capital investment of its closest competitor,India, according to fDi Markets, an FT data service.

过去十年里，中国一直在外企新建制造业设施投资目的地榜单上稳坐头把交椅，流入中国的制造业项目资本投资额令其他发展中国家相形见绌。英国《金融时报》旗下数据服务机构fDi Markets的数据显示，自2005年以来，中国吸引到的项目数量以及资本投资额是与其差距最小的竞争对手印度的3倍。

But over the past year Mexico has gained momentum as a manufacturing destination, movingup to the number two spot and edging out India by number of projects. In 2014 Mexicoattracted 165 investments. Vietnam is another fast riser, ranking second by capital investment,at $19bn against China’s $40bn and Mexico’s $16bn. India, riding on an economic resurgenceand an FDI boom, continues to perform well in manufacturing, attracting 149 projects worth$7bn.

但就过去一年的情况而言，墨西哥作为制造业投资目的地的势头有所增强，以项目数量计在榜单上升至第二位，略领先于印度。2014年，墨西哥吸引到165个投资项目。越南是另一个在榜单上攀升速度很快的国家，以资本投资额计名列第二位，越南吸引到的资本投资额为190亿美元，中国和墨西哥分别为400亿美元和160亿美元。得益于经济复兴和外商直接投资(FDI)迅速增长，印度在制造业方面继续表现良好，吸引到149个项目，价值70亿美元。

Russia, suffering from a lack of investor confidence due to geopolitical tensions and economicuncertainty, has slipped down the charts. Having been ranked fifth by number of projectsbetween 2010-14, last year it came tenth by the same measure. But large investments byChinese automotive companies bolstered capital investment levels to $9bn.

受困于地缘政治紧张和经济不确定性导致的投资者信心缺失，俄罗斯在榜单上的位置有所下降。2010年至2014年，俄吸引到的项目数量排在第五位，就去年一年的情况而言，则排在第十位。不过，中国车企对俄的大举投资使得俄吸引到资本投资额上升到90亿美元。

Indonesia attracted only 56 projects last year — a sixth of the number that went to China —but for an estimated total of an impressive $12bn. The country’s performance as amanufacturing country has been strong over the past five years, with its $55bn in capitalinvestment placing it fifth during that period. Among the more sizeable recent investments,Netherlands-based VI Holding, through its subsidiary Vimetco, a producer of aluminiumproducts, said in the autumn of 2014 that it planned to invest $1bn to establish an aluminarefinery in Kalimantan. The company also announced plans to invest $500m to establish aferronickel smelter in Indonesia through a joint venture with a local partner. And late run2014, China-based Shandong Fuhai Group, another provider of aluminium products, said itwould invest $1.2bn with Ansteel Group in the development of an industrial estate andinfrastructure facilities in Ujung Jabung. The project includes a steel plant that is expected tohave a 1.75m tonnes-per-year capacity, to be primarily sold in the domestic market.

去年，印尼只吸引到56个项目——为中国的六分之一——但项目总价值却高达120亿美元左右。过去五年里，印尼作为制造业国家的表现很突出，吸引到的资本投资额为550亿美元，排在第五位。2014年秋，总部位于荷兰的VI Holding通过子公司、铝材生产商Vimetco表示，打算投资10亿美元在加里曼丹建立一家氧化铝冶炼厂。该公司还宣布，打算通过与当地一个合作伙伴组建合资企业，投资5亿美元在印尼建立一家镍铁冶炼厂。2014年底，另一家铝材生产商、中国山东富海集团(Shandong Fuhai Group)表示，将与鞍钢集团(AnsteelGroup)共同投资12亿美元，在乌戎嘉翁(Ujung Jabung)开发一个工业园区和基础设施。该项目包括一个预计年产能达175万吨的钢厂，产品主要供应印尼国内市场。这些都是近来一些较为大手笔的投资的例子。

An analysis of manufacturing costs byfDi Benchmark, a location assessment data serviceowned by the FT, reveals that Indonesia’s success could be at least in part cost-driven.Combining compound labour costs for a hypothetical aerospace manufacturing facility, thestudy shows costs in Indonesia declining 5 per cent since 2010. Costs in China, in contrast,have increased nearly 16 per cent, against a nearly 4 per cent rise in Vietnam and 3 per cent inMexico. Thailand has experienced a notable cost inflation of more than 10 per cent, althoughthis does not appear yet to be hurting its attractiveness for manufacturing projects: thecountry continues to rank comfortably within the top ten locations.

英国《金融时报》旗下投资地点评估数据服务机构fDi Benchmark在分析制造业成本后发现，印尼的成功至少在一定程度上是由成本驱动的。汇总了一个假想的航空航天制造设施的复合劳动成本后，该调查显示，印尼的成本自2010年以来下降了5%。相比之下，中国的成本升高了近16%，越南和墨西哥分别升高了近4%和3%。泰国的成本上升显著，升幅达10%以上，不过这似乎还没有伤及该国对制造业项目的吸引力：泰国在项目数量上继续稳居前十之列。

Indonesia, though, stands poised to take on other Southeast Asian countries as amanufacturing hub for the region, if it could tackle its longstanding problems of bureaucracyand corruption, improve infrastructure and make other improvements to the investmentclimate.

不过，如果印尼能够解决其长期存在官僚和腐败问题、完善基础设施并在其他方面改善投资环境，它就有望挑战其他东南亚国家的地区制造业中心地位。