美国为何能对国际足联下手

It is half-time in the match between the US justicesystem and Fifa. In the first half, the Americans tooka shock early lead, with the unexpected arrest ofseveral of Fifa’s leading players. But world football’sgoverning body struck back with a defiant equaliser— re-electing its discredited president, SeppBlatter.

现在是美国司法系统与国际足联(Fifa)比赛的中场休息时间。上半场，美国方面率先取得惊人的领先优势，出人意料地逮捕了国际足联几名主要“球员。但世界足球管理机构用一个挑衅性的扳平球予以了回击——选举受到怀疑的塞普•布拉特(Sepp Blatter)连任主席。(根据最新的消息，布拉特已经宣布辞职——编者注)

The ultimate outcome of this match will be of interest all around the world, and not just tofootball fans. President Vladimir Putin of Russia has denounced the Fifa arrests as yet anotherexample of the abuse of American power. His reaction illustrates that the Fifa struggle hasbecome a highly visible test-case of one of the central questions in world politics — is the USstill powerful enough to call the shots in global organisations? Or is the sole superpower’s gripon global institutions slipping?

这场比赛的最终结果将引起全世界范围的兴趣，而且感兴趣的将不只是球迷。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)谴责此番逮捕国际足联官员是美国滥用权力的又一例证。普京的反应说明，围绕国际足联的斗争分明已成为测试世界政治领域一个核心问题的事例：美国仍强大到足以在国际组织中发号施令吗?或者，这个唯一超级大国对全球性机构的控制力下降了吗?

Fifa, of course, is a niche organisation. But the same questions of whether ultimate power stilllies in the west applies to much more systemically important global institutions such as theInternational Monetary Fund, the UN and its sub-organisations including the UN Human RightsCouncil. It is also increasingly a question in the network of non-governmental organisationsthat provide the wiring for the world economic system; from Swift, the organisation thathandles international financial transfers between banks, to Icann which regulates the internet.

当然，国际足联是一个专业领域的组织。但关于西方是否仍然掌握着终极权力之类的问题，可适用于更加具有系统重要性的全球机构，如国际货币基金组织(IMF)和联合国及其下属机构，如联合国人权理事会(UN HumanRights Council)。这在为世界经济体系提供联接作用的非政府组织中也日益成为一个问题，包括处理银行间国际金融转账的环球银行金融电信协会(Swift)以及负责监管互联网的互联网名称与数字地址分配机构(Icann)。

Until last week, Fifa looked like the archetype of an international organisation that was slippingout of the control of the west. Bids to stage the 2018 and 2022 World Cups from England,Spain, the Netherlands, the US and Australia had been rejected in favour of Russia and Qatar.The western press was full of accusations of corruption at Fifa. But Mr Blatter and hisacolytesbrushed them aside.

在逮捕事件发生以前，国际足联一直以来都像是一个脱离西方控制的国际组织。英格兰、西班牙、荷兰、美国以及澳大利亚举办2018年和2022年世界杯的申请都遭到了否决，这两届的主办权分别花落俄罗斯和卡塔尔。西方媒体铺天盖地都是对国际足联腐败的指控。但是，布拉特及其亲信们根本无视这些指控。

The dramatic arrests in Zurich changed this picture of western powerlessness. This wassomething that only the US could or would do. Switzerland has launched its own investigationbut is unlikely to have acted alone, without prompting from the FBI in ¬Washington.

发生在苏黎世的戏剧性逮捕行动改变了西方无能的形象。这样的事也只有美国才能做到或者愿意做。瑞士已经启动了自己的调查，但它不大可能在没有美国联邦调查局(FBI)的敦促下单独行动。

But what allowed America to act in this way? Is that US power transferable to other domains?And is it slipping?

但是，美国何以能如此行动?因为美国的权力可以转移到其他领域吗?它正在下滑吗?

One key fact is the centrality of the American financial system to the world economy —something that in turn rests on the importance of US-based banks and the role of the dollar asthe pre-eminent global reserve currency. The US has standing in the Fifa cases becauseallegedly corrupt transactions were made through banks operating in the US.

一个关键事实是，美国金融体系在世界经济中处于中心地位，这一地位反过来取决于总部位于美国的银行的重要性以及美元作为全球最主要储备货币的角色。美国介入国际足联案件，因为涉嫌的腐败交易是通过在美国运营的银行进行的。

On other occasions, it is not just the direct use of the US financial system that drags outsidersinto America’s net. Some US sanctions regimes force foreigners to obey American law, evenoutside the US, or to be subjected to sanctions themselves. Swift, for example, is based inBelgium. But had Swift’s directors refused to obey US law imposing sanctions on Iran, theyrisked being refused entry to America. So they chose to co-operate.

在其他场合，并非只有对美国金融体系的直接利用可以使外国人落入美国的大网。美国的有些制裁机制迫使外国人遵守美国法律(甚至在美国以外的地区)，否则他们自身就会遭受制裁。例如，Swift的总部设在比利时，但如果该机构负责人拒绝遵守美国制裁伊朗的法律，他们就得冒着被美国拒绝入境的风险。所以，他们选择合作。

This is the kind of power that no other country can yet wield. China, for instance, is a hugemarket and is not averse to using its market-power to threaten countries that do thingsBeijing dislikes, such as meet the Dalai Lama or recognise Taiwan. The renminbi is not a globalcurrency however and access to the Chinese financial system is not yet critical to a globalbusiness. Nor does a threat to bar an individual from travelling to China have the chilling effectof a potential travel ban to the US. (As for the Russian travel bans, issued last week on 89 EUcitizens, few would regard these as an unbearable imposition.)

美国拥有的这种权力至今还没有其他国家能够行使。例如，中国是一个巨大的市场，而且它并不忌讳利用自己的市场力量威胁那些做事令北京不悦的国家，比如会见达赖喇嘛或承认台湾。然而，人民币并非全球性货币，能否利用中国的金融体系对一家跨国企业来说尚未达到至关重要的程度。威胁禁止某位公民前往中国也产生不了潜在的赴美禁令所带来的寒蝉效应。(至于俄罗斯上周针对89名欧盟公民发布的入境禁令，很少有人会认为这些是难以承受的惩罚。)

Could this change? Possibly. But it would probably require the Chinese currency to become aglobal reserve currency to rival the dollar. That is why the IMF’s decision later this year aboutwhether to include China in the basket of currencies from which it makes up its special-drawing-rights will be keenly watched. Such a move would be a visible step along the road to turningthe renminbi into a global reserve currency. That, in turn, might ultimately threaten thedollar’s unique global position — and the power that it confers on the US.

这种情形会发生变化吗?有可能。但这可能会要求人民币成为与美元比肩的全球储备货币。正是因为这一点，IMF今年晚些时候有关是否将人民币纳入特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子的决定将备受瞩目。此举将是人民币在成为全球储备货币道路上前进的重要一步。反过来，这最终可能会威胁到美元独一无二的全球地位及其所赋予美国的权力。

The US may oppose any IMF move to elevate the status of the renminbi. It will have to treadcarefully, however. Opposition that was based on the fact that China’s currency is not yet fullyconvertible could well be seen as legitimate. Opposition that looked like little more than anunjustified effort to hang on to a privileged position could end up weakening the US.

美国或许会反对IMF提升人民币地位的任何举动。然而，它将不得不谨慎行事。如果美国反对的事实依据是人民币还不能完全自由兑换，那这很可能被视为是合理的。如果其反对看起来仅仅是为保住特权地位，那就显得没有道理了，最终可能会削弱美国的权力。(根据最新的消息，德国财长表示，七国集团(G7)原则上同意把人民币纳入IMF特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子——编者注)

For the final lesson of the Fifa affair is that America’s power does not just rest on the size of itsmarket or the power of its military. Its justice system also still possesses a moral authoritythat stems from its roots in an open, democratic and law-governed society.

从国际足联事件得出的最后一个结论是，美国的权力不仅仅仰仗其市场规模或军事力量。美国的司法体系也仍然具有道德权威，这种权威源于其根植在一个开放、民主、法治的社会。

The justice dispensed by the US system can seem rough, particularly given its use of threatsand plea bargains. But if the US Department of Justice says there is a serious case to answer,it still carries global credibility. The same benefit of the doubt would not be extended to aprosecutor in Moscow or Beijing.

美国司法体系所维护的正义看似粗糙，特别是考虑到其诉诸威胁和辩诉交易这类手段。但如果美国司法部宣称被告需要就一起重案进行答辩，它仍然在全球具有可信性。同样的疑罪从无(benefit of the doubt)不会适用于莫斯科或者北京的检察官。

China is certainly closing the wealth gap with America, just as Asia is closing the gap with thewest. But the reputation of American institutions for integrity remains a vital intangibleasset. It is that reputation that allowed the US to tackle Fifa.

当然，中国正在缩小与美国之间的贫富差距，一如亚洲与西方的差距在缩小。但美国机构正直的声誉仍然是一笔至关重要的无形资产。正是这种声誉让美国能够对付国际足联。