美国大选辩论首场：谁说错了什么？

当地时间9月26日晚，美国大选进行两党候选人第一轮电视辩论，这也是民主党总统候选人希拉里与共和党总统候选人特朗普的首次正面对决。90分钟的唇枪舌战，两人就美国方向 Claim: Donald Trump repeated his insistence that he was against the 2003 invasion of Iraq, claiming Clinton's assertions to the contrary were "mainstream media nonsense put out by her".

现场表述：特朗普反复强调说他是反对2003年入侵伊拉克的，并声称克林顿方面说他支持伊拉克战争的观点是“她向主流媒体散布出去的胡言乱语”。

Reality Check verdict: Trump did not publicly speak out against the war before it started. On September, 11 2002, radio host Howard Stern asked Trump if he supported a potential invasion of Iraq. He replied: "Yeah, I guess so". During the debate, he tried to explain that away by saying the comment had been made "lightly". He said he had been arguing in private, to Fox News's Sean Hannity, that war would destabilize the Middle East, but we have no evidence to support that so far. He did start to express doubts after the invasion.

事实查证：伊拉克战争开始之前，特朗普并未公开表示反对。2002年9月11日，电台主持人Howard Stern问特朗普是否支持未来入侵伊拉克，他回答说：“是的，我想应该支持吧。”在辩论中，特朗普试图为此开脱，称当时是“随口一说”。他对福克斯资讯的Sean Hannity表示曾经私下为此争论过，称战争会使中东失去稳定局面，但目前为止我们找不到证据支持这一论述。不过，在战争开始以后，他的确开始表达质疑了。

Claim: Clinton attacked Trump over his boasts about his business acumen. "You know, Donald was very fortunate in his life and that's all to his benefit," Clinton said. "He started his business with $14m, borrowed from his father."

现场表述：克林顿现场对特朗普吹嘘自己敏锐的商业头脑进行攻击。克林顿说：“你们知道，特朗普这一生很幸运，他的优势也就这些了。他用来创业的1400万美元是从他父亲那里借来的。”

Reality Check verdict: Trump says he received a $1m loan from his real estate mogul father. He also got loan guarantees and money from his future inheritance and inherited a share of his father's property holdings.

事实查证：特朗普说他从地产大亨父亲那里获得了100万美元的贷款，另外还从父亲那里得到了贷款担保，从未来要继承的遗产中预支的资金，还继承了父亲在地产项目中的一部分股份。

Claim: Trump alleged that Clinton called the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal the "gold standard" of trade agreements. Clinton denied this but added: "I did say I hoped it would be a good deal."

现场表述：特朗普说克林顿把跨太平洋伙伴关系贸易协定称为贸易协定的“黄金准则”。克林顿予以否认，不过表示：“我的确说过希望这个协定是个好协定。”

Reality Check verdict: We give this one to Trump. Clinton did more than express hope that the deal would turn out well and in a 2017 trip to Australia said it would be the "gold standard": "This TPP sets the gold standard in trade agreements to open free, transparent, fair trade, the kind of environment that has the rule of law and a level playing field."

事实查证：这一轮特朗普胜出。克林顿不止表达过希望这个协定能够顺利达成，还在2017年访问澳大利亚时说，这个协定会是“黄金准则”：“这个跨太平洋伙伴关系协定为贸易协定展开自由、透明及公平的贸易建立了黄金准则，这样的贸易环境有法治，也有公平交易的平台。”

Claim: Clinton said: "People have looked at both of our plans, have concluded that mine would create 10 million jobs and yours would lose us 3.5 million jobs."

现场表述：“人们在看过我俩的计划后，得出的结论是，我的计划可以创造出1000万个工作岗位，而你的计划会让我们失去350万份工作。”

Reality Check verdict: Clinton has made this claim before. It is based on an optimistic reading of a report by Moody's Analytics, which says that most of the 10 million new jobs would be created anyway by an expanding economy. If all of Clinton's economic policies became law - which the report says is unlikely - they would account for 3.2 million of the 10 million jobs. The same company analysed Trump's plans and suggested they would tip the US into recession and lead to 3.5 million job losses - something strongly disputed by the Trump campaign.

事实查证：希拉里以前就放出过同样的言论。这是基于对穆迪分析机构一份报告的乐观解读，该报告称经济扩张将创造出1000万个新的工作岗位。如果希拉里所有的经济政策都成为法律——该报告表示这是不可能的——那么1000万个工作岗位中将有320万个是受益于希拉里的经济政策。该机构同样分析了特朗普的计划，并指出他的计划会让美国陷入经济衰退，并导致美国失去350万个工作机会，而这个结论受到了特朗普竞选团队的强烈质疑。

But the two reports cover different time frames. The author Mark Zandi told CNN Money a more accurate comparison to the 10 million jobs created under Clinton would be 400,000 jobs lost under Trump, not 3.4 million.

不过两份报告是在不同时间段的研究结果。报告作者马克•赞迪告诉CNN财经说，更准确的数据是，希拉里执政下若能创造出1000万份工作，那么特朗普执政下失去的工作机会将不是340万个，而是40万个。

Claim: Trump has frequently tried to blame the rise of Islamic State militants on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. This is his latest attempt.

现场表述：特朗普多次试图将伊斯兰国武装分子的崛起归咎于美国国务卿希拉里。这次辩论特朗普又一次拿此事攻击希拉里。

Reality Check verdict: Possibly the strangest claim of the night. Clinton is 68 years old. The so-called Islamic State did not appear on the scene until 2009, although its roots stretch back to the Sunni terror group al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), which started in 2004.

事实查证：这也许是本场辩论中最莫名其妙的言论。希拉里已经68岁。所谓的伊斯兰国一直到2009年才出现，不过它发源于伊拉克的逊尼派恐怖组织——基地组织，该组织于2004年建立。

Claim: Clinton accused Trump of calling climate change a hoax invented by the Chinese. He insisted "I did not say that".

现场表述：希拉里指责特朗普把气候变化称为中国人发明的骗局。特朗普坚称“我没说过这话”。

Reality Check verdict: This claim relates to a 2017 tweet which Trump later said was a joke. He said: "The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive."

事实查证：希拉里指的是2017年特朗普发的一条推文，后来，特朗普表示这是个笑话。他在推文中说：全球变暖的概念是中国人为了中国人编造出来的，目的是让美国的制造业失去竞争力。

Claim: Clinton said race determines how people are treated in the criminal justice system.

现场表述：希拉里表示，在刑事司法制度中，种族决定了人们会被如何对待。

Reality Check verdict: This is a tough one to prove as there are no figures on the percentage of crimes that result in arrest. What we do know is that black people are locked up five times more frequently than white people. African-American people make up about 13% of the United States population. White people make up 64%. But black people make up 40% of the prison population, and white people 39%. It does not mean that black people, who tend to live more in urban, heavily policed areas, are five times as likely to commit crime however.

事实查证：这很难证实，因为没有导致逮捕嫌犯的犯罪比例的相关数据。但我们知道，黑人被拘押的几率是白人的五倍。非裔美国人占美国人口的大约13%，白人占64%。但监狱罪犯中有40%是黑人，白人有39%。但这并不能表明，更多地居住在警方管控更严格的城市中的黑人犯罪率就是白人的五倍。

Clinton also claimed that African American men are more likely to be killed by guns than other demographics, something that is largely born out by the statistics.

希拉里还表示，非裔美国男性比其他族群更容易被枪杀，这在很大程度上已被数据证实。

Claim: Murders in New York city are up.

现场表述：纽约市谋杀率上升。

Reality Check verdict: As so often with crime statistics it depends how you slice it. The murder rate in New York city is close to record lows but did increase slightly between 2017 and 2017, according to FBI figures. But the very latest figures from the New York Police Department show murder rates are down 4% on 2017.

事实查证：犯罪数据要看你怎么看待了。美国联邦调查局数据显示，纽约市谋杀率接近史上最低，但在2017至2017年间确实有轻微上升。但纽约警察局的最新数据显示，2017年该市谋杀率下降了4%。

Murder rates across the US as a whole went up 10.8% in 2017, the biggest single-year percentage jump since 1971, with a big spike in a handful of cities including Chicago, Washington DC and Baltimore.

2017年，美国全国的谋杀率上升了10.8%，是自1971年以来上升最快的一年。芝加哥、华盛顿和巴尔的摩等数个城市谋杀率飙升。

Trump also claimed that "stop and frisk" tactics "worked very well in New York" and brought crime rates down. This is hotly disputed by researchers and commentators. Violent crime rates have continued to decline in New York, as part of a long term trend, even though the number of "stop and frisk" searches has gone down dramatically in recent years. Research by Jeffrey Fagan of Columbia University found indiscriminate searches had little effect on crime, although his research also found crime was reduced when police stopped and frisked civilians after observing someone acting violently, selling drugs or "casing a joint".

特朗普还表示，“拦截搜身”的策略“在纽约非常有效”，使犯罪率下降。而这遭到研究人员和评论人士的热议。尽管近年来“拦截搜身”检查次数迅速下降，但纽约市的暴力犯罪率持续走低，成为一种长期趋势。哥伦比亚大学杰弗里-费根的研究显示，不加选择的检查对降低犯罪率基本无效，但他的研究还显示，当警察注意到有人有暴力行为、出售毒品、或者想要偷窃时对民众进行盘查，可以减少犯罪。

Claim: Trump says he can't release his tax returns because he is in the middle of a tax audit. He also says publishing them would not reveal much.

现场表述：特朗普称自己无法公布纳税申报单，因为他正在接受税务审计。他还表示即便公布了也没有什么料。

Clinton suggests he will never publish them as they might reveal he is not as rich as he says he is, does not pay Federal tax and does not give as much to charity as claimed.

希拉里则表示特朗普永远不会公布纳税申报单，因为从申报单上人们可以看出他并没有自己说的那么有钱，也没有缴纳足额的联邦税费，募捐给慈善的钱也没自己声称的那样多。

Reality Check verdict: Being audited by the Internal Revenue Service does not prohibit the release of tax returns. They would reveal Trump's annual income, how much he pays in tax and how much he gives to charity. Trump claims he has given $102m to charity in the past five years, but a Washington Post investigation could not find any cash donated by Trump's businesses after 2008. Trump's actual wealth has been assessed by Forbes at $4.5bn, compared with the $10bn he claims.

事实查证：接受国税局审计并不妨碍公布纳税申报单。从申报单上人们可以看出特朗普的年收入、缴纳的税金、以及捐献给慈善事业的金额。特朗普声称自己在过去五年中共捐出1.02亿美元用于慈善，但《华盛顿邮报》的调查显示，2008年后特朗普名下企业并未捐出一分钱。福布斯估计特朗普的真实身价为45亿美元，而他自己声称有100亿美元资产。

Interestingly, Trump has never provided evidence that he is actually under audit by the tax authorities. According to Associated Press, a letter released by his tax lawyers never used the word, merely describing his tax returns as under continuous review.

有趣的是，特朗普从未提供证据证明他真的在接受税务审计。据美联社报道，特朗普的税务律师发布的公开信中从未提到这个词，仅表明他的纳税申报正接受连续审查。