俄罗斯卢布贬值竟然连累到了我国天气预报的准确率?没错,真是这样!中央气象台官方微博日前发布的这则消息,不仅普及了科学知识,也让人们切实感受到了蝴蝶效应的威力。
China's weather forecasts have become less accurate due to decline in the value of the Russian rouble, the National Meteorological Center said on its official microblog earlier this year.
据中央气象台官方微博今年早些时候发布的消息,中国天气预报准确率降低是因为俄罗斯卢布贬值。
货币贬值的英文表达是decline in the value of the currency,也可以表达为currency devaluation或currency depreciation。我国天气预报会采用一部分俄罗斯天气数据用来准确预报我们的天气。由于俄罗斯迫于卢布贬值带来的经济压力中止提供很多radiosonde observations(探空观测)的资料,造成很多重要的观测数据缺失,导致预报不准,进而影响到我们的天气数据分析。
据了解,探空观测can make direct internal measurements of air temperature, pressure, humidity and wind power at various levels(可以在大气内部直接测量各个层次的温度、气压、湿度、风力等信息),这是卫星观测做不到的。一旦某个地区的观测资料中断,在数值模式中这里的资料就只能依靠satellite remote sensing(卫星遥感资料)来弥补,而遥感资料的精确度远不如探空和地面观测等探测手段,所以数值预报水平会有所下降。
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