中国外汇交易中心26日表示,外汇市场自律机制汇率工作组考虑在人民币对美元汇率中间价报价模型中引入逆周期因子。专家表示,这样或可适度对冲市场情绪的顺周期波动,缓解外汇市场可能存在的“羊群效应”。
China is considering introducing a "countercyclical factor" to adjust the way it calculates the yuan's daily reference rate against the dollar, according to a statement by the country's foreign exchange trading system on Friday.
中国外汇交易中心26日表示,我国正在考虑在人民币对美元汇率中间价报价模型中引入逆周期因子。
当前我国外汇市场(foreign exchange market)可能仍存在一定的顺周期性,容易受到非理性预期的惯性驱使(prone to the habitual influences of irrational expectations),放大单边市场预期(one-way market expectations can sometimes be exaggerated),进而导致市场供求出现一定程度的“失真”,增大市场汇率超调的风险。
汇率根本上应由经济基本面( economic fundamentals)决定,但在美元指数出现较大幅度回落、我国主要经济指标总体向好(China's economic fundamentals have improved in general)的情况下,人民币对美元市场汇率多数时间都在按照“收盘价+一篮子货币汇率变化”机制确定的中间价的贬值方向运行。
人民币对美元汇率中间价报价模型中引入逆周期因子(countercyclical factor),有助于适度对冲市场情绪的顺周期波动(procyclical fluctuation),合理引导市场预期,遏制市场非理性炒作行为,缓解外汇市场可能存在的“羊群效应”(lessen possible "herd effects"),从而避免人民币汇率剧烈波动(prevent excessive fluctuation of the yuan)。
“羊群效应”(head effect)也称“从众心理”,在资本市场上,“羊群效应”是指在一个投资群体中,单个投资者总是根据其他同类投资者的行动而行动,在他人买入时买入,在他人卖出时卖出。
招商证券首席宏观分析师谢亚轩表示,加入逆周期调节因子,一定程度上会削弱上日收盘价对中间价的影响(diminish the impact of the previous day's closing price on the central parity rate),并减少外部市场过度波动带来的冲击,保持人民币汇率总体基本稳定。
外汇市场自律机制秘书处表示,逆周期因子根据宏观经济等基本面变化动态调整,有利于引导市场在汇率形成中更多关注宏观经济等基本面情况(guide the market to focus more on macroeconomic fundamentals),使中间价报价更加充分地反映我国经济运行等基本面因素,更真实地体现外汇供求(better reflect the market supply and demand)和一篮子货币汇率变化(exchange rate changes of the currencies in the basket)。
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