中国理财产品为何值得担忧

Wealth management products, or WMPs, might be the best thing that ever happened to Chinese savers. Sold by banks as a substitute for deposits, wealth management products are short-term investments that offer significantly higher returns than the famously anemic deposit rates mandated by China's central bank.

理财产品可能是迄今为止落到中国储户头上的最大意外之喜。银行将理财产品作为储蓄的替代品向客户出售，这些产品是短期投资，其回报率要比中国低得出名的银行存款利率高出许多。中国的银行存款利率由央行强制规定。

However, very little is known about how the banks invest these products and what we do know seems to be getting less and less.

但人们对银行将出售理财产品获得的资金如何投资却所知甚少，而我们在这方面所能了解到的情况似乎也越来越少。

There is no official data on the volume or composition of wealth management products issued by Chinese banks, but a Chengdu-based research outfit called Cnbenefit tries to keep track of where the money is going.

虽然中国没有关于银行所发售理财产品的数量及构成的官方数据，但成都一家名叫普益财富(CNBenefit)的研究机构却在试图追踪了解理财产品所募集的资金正在流向哪里。

According to Cnbenefit the products are typically invested into one of half a dozen different asset categories: structured deposits, bonds and interbank loans, foreign currency debt, corporate bills, credit products, and 'other.' And according to Cnbenefit's most recent data, 'other' now accounts for more than half of all new wealth management products issued.

普益财富说，这些资金通常被投向六种不同资产类别中的一种，这些资产包括结构性存款、债券和银行间贷款、外币债券、企业债券、信贷产品和“其他类别的资产。普益财富的最新数据显示，新发行理财产品所募集的资金目前有一半以上都投向了“其他类别的资产。

That could be a problem.

这或许是个问题。

'Other' type products are typically a jumble of different types of asset classes a few interbank loans, a sprinkle of foreign exchange products, a dash of structured deposits that together defy easy categorization. But analysts and bankers say that the products are increasingly being filled with loans as banks look for a way to continue offering robust interest rates in an effort to stay on top in the cut-throat competition for customers.

那些容纳了各种不同种类资产的金融资产通常会被归入“其他类资产，这些金融资产会含有一些银行间贷款、少许外汇交易产品、或少量的结构性存款，由于这些资产是多种类别资产的混合体，因此难以对其进行归类。但分析师和银行家们说，“其他类资产中目前正越来越多地充斥着银行贷款，因为各家银行正纷纷寻求继续向储户提供高利息的途径，它们希望以此在非常激烈的客户争夺战中继续占据上风。

With about 10 trillion yuan ($1.6 trillion) invested in wealth management products by the end of March according to Fitch Ratings, that could mean that the banks have lent out a lot more than anyone is aware of.

惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)的数据显示，截至今年三月底，中国约有10万亿元人民币被投向了理财产品，这有可能意味着中国银行业借出去的钱比人们知道的要多得多。

In May, 'other' products accounted for only 37.1% of newly issued wealth management products. In September that figure was up to 51.1%.

今年5月，中国新发行理财产品募集的资金只有37.1%投向了“其他类资产。而今年9月，这一比例已提高到51.1%。

Despite efforts by the regulator to get banks to give more detail of what's going into a product, prospectuses are notoriously vague. (It's not unusual for a prospectus to promise that between 10% and 90% of funds raised will be invested in bonds.)

尽管政府监管机构努力要求银行就其理财产品所募集资金都投向了何处提供更详细的信息，但中国银行业的募款说明书却是出了名的语焉不详。(募款说明书常会说，将承诺把所募集资金的10%至90%投向债券。)

Part of the problem is that the banks manage the assets backing the products as a pool. To put it another way, the products aren't backed by specific assets, but rather have a claim over a much bigger group of assets. That way the banks can use the short-term funds raised from the sale of the products most wealth management products mature after only one to six months to fund longer-term assets that can deliver a higher interest rate.

出现这种问题一定程度上是因为，发行理财产品的银行会将所募集资金投向一系列资产类别。从另一个角度说，其所发行的理财产品并非由具体的资产所支持，支持它的是一批范围广泛得多的资产。通过这种方式，银行就能用它发售理财产品募集的短期资金(多数理财产品的期限只有一到六个月)去投资长期资产，这类资产的利率较高。

Until recently, the most common type of products were those invested in interbank loans and bonds, which are relatively safe (no corporate bond in China has ever defaulted) and liquid. They accounted for 40.6% of new products issued in September, down from 46.13% in May, according to Cnbenefit.

直到不久之前，中国最常见的理财产品还是那些投资于银行间贷款和债券的产品，这些理财产品相对安全(中国还未发生过企业债券违约的事)且具流动性。普益财富说，今年9月份新发行的理财产品中，这类产品占40.6%，低于5月份时的46.13%。

But falling interest rates have made those products a lot less appealing. The central bank cut interest rates in early June and in early July. Moreover, since late June it has been aggressively pumping more and more cash into the banking system, driving down interbank lending rates. That's reduced the return banks can offer on funds invested in interbank loans and bonds which are linked to interbank rates.

但中国不断下调的利率却大大降低了这些产品的吸引力。中国央行在6月初和7月初先后两次降息。此外，自6月底以来，它一直在大力向银行体系注入越来越多的资金，拉低了银行间贷款的利率。这既降低了资金投向银行间贷款的银行理财产品的回报率，也降低了资金投向与银行间贷款利率挂钩的债券的银行理财产品的回报率。