短线观点：全球股市将继续下跌

Global equities are experiencing their worst two-day spell of trading this summer, heightening the prospect of more central bank action.

过去两天全球股市经历了今夏以来最糟糕的两个交易日，凸显各央行加强干预的可能性。

Negative short-dated bond yields in the core eurozone and new lows for US Treasury benchmarks yesterday were a warning that prices for equities are poised for larger declines, particularly given that August, a month renowned for poor liquidity, is on the doorstep.

欧元区核心国家短期债券收益率转负，美国国债基准收益率昨日创下新低，这预示着股市将出现更大规模的衰退，特别是在接近以流动性吃紧而著称的8月的时候。

Beyond the bad headlines from the eurozone, investors have plenty more to worry about than the possible break-up of the single currency or failure of regional banks. Slower growth in emerging market economies is adding to the evidence that corporate profit growth is at its most vulnerable juncture since the financial crisis.

除了来自欧元区的坏消息，投资者在欧元区解体或地方性银行倒闭之外还有很多需要担心的问题。新兴市场经济体增长放缓，进一步证明企业利润增长正处在自金融危机以来最脆弱的关口。

While there was some paring of the initial sharp declines in equity and commodity prices yesterday, as short-selling bans were introduced in Italy and Spain, there is no mistaking the bearish tone.

虽然随着意大利和西班牙颁布卖空禁令，股市和大宗商品价格最初的急剧下跌在昨日有所缓和，但市场基调无疑是看跌的。

The risks of a global recession is rising and it probably leaves central banks with the task of trying to instil confidence via their usual method of pumping more money into the financial system. The only problem for investors is that central banks have already played that card.

全球经济出现衰退的风险正在加剧，这可能促使各央行通过向金融系统注入更多资金的老方法努力重振市场信心。对投资者而言，唯一的问题在于各央行已经打过这张牌了。

As a tide of red prices washed across trading screens yesterday, not even gold was spared. The prospect of more pump-priming from the Federal Reserve should be a boon for gold, which dropped again yesterday and sits more than 16 per cent below its February peak. As equity investors hope for central banks to save the day, it is striking that gold remains stuck in a corrective trend.

昨日各类资产交易屏上一片红字，甚至连黄金都未能幸免。对美联储(FED)可能采取进一步刺激措施的预期应该有利于提振金价。昨日金价再度下跌，跌幅相对于今年2月的最高点已超过16%。股票投资者希望各央行采取措施救市，而黄金仍然困在调整趋势中，这令人吃惊。

What is very worrying is that central banks have largely exhausted their ammunition at a time when the risk of a broad global recession characterised by disinflation is growing. Stand by for even lower US, UK and German bond yields.

非常令人担心的一点是，在以通货膨胀减缓为特征的大范围全球经济衰退风险加剧之时，各央行在很大程度上已耗尽了弹药。未来美国、英国以及德国债券收益率必将进一步下降。