罗姆尼的竞选搭档救不了他

Introducing his running mate against the backdrop of the USS Wisconsin on Saturday, Mitt Romney flubbed his easiest line: “Join me in welcoming the next president of the United States. There is no way to avoid reading this as a Freudian slip. Mr Romney’s chief problem as a candidate has been his substantive vacuity, his failure to stand for much beyond flexibility itself. In choosing Paul Ryan, he opted to outsource the content of his campaign to his opposite: a principled, conservative ideas man. Mr Ryan is now the head of the Republican ticket, Mr Romney the body.

周六，在“威斯康辛号(USS Wisconsin)战舰前介绍自己的竞选搭档时，米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)把一句最简单的“台词说错了，说成了：“请大家和我一起欢迎美国未来的总统。我们不得不联想到，或许这个口误正是罗姆尼下意识的想法。作为总统候选人，罗姆尼的主要问题在于其主张极其空洞，除了“见机行事本身之外未能真正主张什么。选择保罗·瑞安(Paul Ryan)做竞选搭档，就是选择了靠一个与自己截然相反的人为自己的竞选增加一些实质内容：瑞安有原则，是一个坚定的保守主义者。如今在这个共和党正副总统候选人团队中，瑞安是脑袋，罗姆尼则是受脑袋指挥的身子。

Given the options he had left himself, this was probably the best choice for Mr Romney to make.

再看看别的人选，或许这已是罗姆尼的最佳选择。

Mr Ryan stands for a clear proposition – the radical scaling back of the federal government’s social commitments – and through his pick, Mr Romney now represents that as well. Usually, a vice-presidential candidate scrambles to fall into line with the top of the ticket. In this case, it is Mr Romney who will, not for the first time, adjust his views. Instead of attacking Barack Obama for cutting Medicare, Mr Romney must now charge him, as Mr Ryan does, with not cutting it enough.

瑞安有明确的政见——大幅削减联邦政府社会福利开支。罗姆尼选择瑞安为竞选搭档，也相当于在这一点上表明了自己的立常通常来说，副总统候选人要努力配合总统候选人的主张。而在这个组合里，将对自己的观点做出修正的人是罗姆尼，而这也不是他第一次这么做了。如今罗姆尼必须改变说辞，不再攻击巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)削减联邦医疗保险(Medicare)支出，而应指责其削减的幅度不够大。

Curiously, both conservatives and liberals profess to be pleased with the choice – the former because Mr Ryan represents their beliefs and the latter because he offers clear positions that they can challenge. Though both cannot be right about the political impact of the selection, the campaign itself will benefit from Mr Romney’s choice. Mr Ryan’s presence on the ticket makes this a better and more interesting election. It forces the debate the country needs to have about entitlement spending and ensures that the remaining months will be more than an argument about whose negative ads are more disgusting.

有趣的是，保守主义者和自由主义者都对罗姆尼的这个选择表示满意——前者感到满意是因为瑞安代表了他们的信仰，后者则是因为瑞安提出了明确的立场可供他们讨伐。尽管两方对罗姆尼这个选择的政治影响不可能都判断对，但受益于这个选择的将是竞选本身。瑞安参选副总统，将使这场大选变得更有价值、更有趣。此人的参选，将迫使美国就福利开支进行一场必要的辩论，也确保未来几个月的竞选将不会是一场关于谁的负面广告更恶心的竞赛。

It is hard to see it, however, as improving Republican chances. Until now, Mr Romney has been a poor candidate running a clumsy campaign, which pointed towards losing a winnable race. Mr Ryan changes that narrative, but only by reframing the election the way Mr Obama’s team wishes to, as a choice between two visions of the social contract as opposed to a referendum on Mr Obama’s economic performance. Instead of teasing out the implications of Mr Romney’s tax cuts, Mr Obama can now directly challenge Mr Ryan’s stated positions in favour of privatising social security and turning Medicare into a voucher programme. Florida, a must-win state for Mr Romney, just moved closer to Mr Obama’s column.

然而，很难说瑞安的参选增加了共和党的赢面。到目前为止，罗姆尼的竞选一直不够有力、不够漂亮，眼看就要输掉这场本有可能赢的竞赛。瑞安改变了这个局面，但他的加入只不过令局势朝奥巴马团队希望的方向更进了一步：大选变成了对两种社会契约愿景的选择，而非一场对奥巴马在经济方面的表现的全民公决。如今奥巴马不需要继续就罗姆尼减税的影响大做文章，而可以直接对瑞安公开表明的立场进行质疑。瑞安的立场是：支持社会保障私有化，用代金券计划代替联邦医疗保险。罗姆尼志在必得的佛罗里达州刚刚向奥巴马阵营迈进了一步。

A valid critique of the plan Mr Ryan developed as chairman of the House Budget Committee is that while it may be a useful document to start a conversation, it is utterly unrealistic as a matter of policy. The original version would reduce federal “discretionary spending to 3 per cent of gross domestic product by 2050 – far less than the US now spends on defence alone. This is a preposterous target, a symptom of the Republican refusal to acknowledge that federal government has legitimate, vital functions and that fiscal balance cannot be attained without higher taxes.

对瑞安作为众议院预算委员会主席提出的这一计划的一个在理的批评就是，虽然这是启动对话的一个有用的提议，但从政策角度来看却完全不现实。最初的规划是在2050年之前将联邦“自由支配开支降低到国内生产总值(GDP)的3%，比目前美国国防一项的开支还要低很多。这是一个荒谬的目标，也体现了共和党拒绝承认联邦政府有合法而不可或缺的职能，不提高税收就无法实现财政平衡。

Another fair criticism of Mr Ryan, somewhat at odds with the first, is that while he may be a devotee of Ayn Rand, he has voted more like a Republican hack than a revolutionary. In Congress, he has sought federal funds for his Wisconsin district and supported the most egregious Bush spending programmes, such as the Medicare prescription drug plan. While positioning himself as a deficit hawk, he failed to embrace the report of the Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction commission, on which he sat.

对瑞安的另外一个公正、但在某种程度上与上述批评矛盾的批评是，虽然他可能是艾茵·兰德(Ayn Rand)的崇拜者，但与其说他是以改革者的身份参与竞选，还不如说他是共和党的雇佣文人。在国会，他为自己所在的威斯康辛选区寻求联邦基金，支持小布什(George W.?Bush)时期臭名昭著的开支计划，比如联邦医疗保险中的处方药计划。虽然他自称为赤字鹰派人物，但却没有支持辛普森-鲍尔斯(Simpson-Bowles)赤字削减委员会的报告，而他还是该委员会的成员。

Yet Mr Ryan is neither the heartless ideologue nor the humbug liberal critics have made him out to be. He is, rather, a conviction politician who has moved his party far more than it has moved him. Getting the House to pass his budget this year – thus putting the GOP on record in favour of ending Medicare as an entitlement – was a stunning accomplishment. It puts an end to the Republican attempt to have it both ways, calling for less government in theory while voting for more in practice. It puts the onus on Democrats to say how else they would restrain a programme that is growing to consume the entire federal budget.

然而，瑞安既不是一个无情的空想家，也不是自由派批评者所说的骗子。他是一个有信念的政治人物，对其党派的影响远远超过了党派对他的影响。他今年成功地让众议院通过了他的预算案，从而让共和党公开支持结束联邦医疗保险这一福利，这是一项惊人的成就。它让共和党无法再见风使舵，一面在理论上呼吁小政府，但实际上却支持大政府。它还把责任推到了民主党头上——民主党需要回答，还有什么其他措施能限制一个不断扩大、势要消耗整个联邦预算的项目。

In their efforts to portray him as simply a factotum for the rich, Mr Ryan’s opponents frequently ignore what he has to say. For instance, Mr Ryan’s budget was widely criticised for finding savings from the elimination of tax deductions without naming any to eliminate. But when I questioned Mr Ryan about this at a breakfast with journalists a few months ago, his answer was both clear and sensible: he would means-test all tax deductions, including the big ones for mortgage-interest and charitable contributions. This is a sound way to extract more taxes from the wealthy, without raising marginal rates. If he did not spell it out in his budget outline, it is because he has yet to develop a consensus around the idea inside the Republican caucus.

为了将瑞安描绘为富人的勤杂工，他的对手们经常忽略他的立常比如说，瑞安的预算方案遭到广泛的批评，被指责一方面提出从取消税收减免中获得收入，一方面又没有指明取消哪些税收减免。但几个月之前，瑞安在与记者共进早餐时我问他这个问题的时候，他的回答既明确又明智：对于所有的税收减免他都将进行经济状况调查，包括抵押贷款利息和慈善捐赠等享有的较大的税收减免。这是从富人征收更多税的好方法，同时又不会提高边际税率。如果说他没有在其预算规划中列出这一条，那是因为他还需要在共和党党团会议上就这个想法达成一致。

In the event of a Republican victory, Mr Ryan would be as dominant a figure on economic policy as Dick Cheney was on foreign policy under George W.?Bush. He understands the hard choices ahead and has a coherent view of how to make them. His selection represents a big step in the direction of conservative honesty – and probably, for that reason, toward Republican defeat.

如果共和党取得胜利，那么瑞安在经济政策上的主导力量将不亚于小布什时期迪克·切尼(Dick Cheney)在外交政策上的重要性。他充分了解眼前的艰难抉择，对如何做出这些选择也有始终如一的立常他的选择是朝保守主义诚实方向迈出的一大步，由于这个原因，或许也是朝着共和党的失败迈出的一大步。

The writer is chairman of the Slate Group

本文作者为美国Slate集团董事长