分析：美国贸易逆差再度扩大

The US trade deficit widened in July for the first time in four months as demand for American-made goods slowed on the back of global economic uncertainty.

美国7月份贸易逆差四个月来首次扩大，原因是全球经济前景不明朗，市场对美国制造的商品需求减少。

The gap between imports and exports grew 0.2 per cent to $42bn from a downwardly revised $41.9bn in June, commerce department data showed. The figure came in below economists’ estimates of $44.3bn.

美国商务部的数据显示，美国7月贸易逆差上升0.2%，至420亿美元。6月贸易逆差经下修后为419亿美元。7月逆差数据低于经济学家们预估的443亿美元。

A wider trade deficit acts as a drag on growth because the US typically spends more on imports while taking in less from the sales of American-made goods.

贸易逆差扩大对经济增长形成拖累，因为美国通常进口支出较多，出口收入较少。

Europe’s recession and slowing momentum in emerging economies such as China have pulled back demand for US products. Exports fell 1 per cent to $183.3bn, the biggest decline since April, due to weaker sales of cars, telecommunications equipment and heavy machinery.

欧洲经济低迷以及中国等新兴经济体增长放缓削弱了市场对美国产品的需求。受汽车、电信设备和重型机械等出口减少影响，美国7月份出口额下降1%，至1833亿美元，为今年4月以来最大降幅。

The US posted a record $29.4bn trade shortfall with China, the largest with any single country, while the deficit with the European Union surged 42 per cent to $12bn, the widest since October 2007. American exports to Germany were the weakest since February 2010.

美国对华贸易逆差为294亿美元，创历史最高水平，这也是美国有史以来对单一国家的最大贸易逆差。美国对欧盟(EU)的贸易逆差激增42%，至120亿美元，为2007年10月以来的最高水平。美国对德国出口创下2010年2月以来最低水平。

The decline in US exports outpaced a 0.8 per cent fall in imports to $225.3bn from $227.1bn in the prior month, which reflected a drop in the value of inbound deliveries of crude oil to $25.8bn from $26.4bn. In July, the price of a barrel of crude declined to $93.83 from $100.13 the prior month.

美国7月出口降幅超过进口降幅。7月进口额较前月的2271亿美元下降0.8%，至2253亿美元，其中，原油进口总值从264亿美元降至258亿美元。7月单桶原油价格从6月的100.13美元降至93.83美元。

“Imports fell for the fourth consecutive month, something that has not happened since February 2010. The main reasons was lower oil imports, influenced by lower prices?.?.?.?this is not likely to persist as oil prices have been rising in recent weeks, said Jill Brown, vice-president of economics at Credit Suisse.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)经济研究副总裁吉尔·布朗(Jill Brown)表示：“进口连续四个月下降，这种情况自2010年2月以来从未出现过。主要原因是受原油价格下跌影响，原油进口额下降……随着最近几周油价上涨，这种情况不太可能持续。

The US economy grew at an annual rate of just 1.7 per cent in the second quarter, down from growth of 2 per cent in first three months of this year. Many economists believe growth will remain lacklustre for the rest of the year, partly due to falling demand for US products abroad.

按年率计算，美国二季度经济增长率仅为1.7%，低于首季的2%。许多经济学家相信，今年内美国经济增长状况仍将保持疲弱，部分原因是海外对美国产品的需求呈下降态势。

US employers added just 96,000 jobs last month, down from an increase of 141,000 jobs in July and well below the average 226,000 jobs a month created from January to March. The uncertainty surrounding job and salary prospects is likely also to stall consumer demand, the biggest driver of the US economy.

美国8月份仅增加了9.6万个就业岗位，低于7月的14.1万，更是远远低于首季度的月平均值22.6万。就业和薪资前景的不确定性，也可能导致作为美国经济最重要驱动力的消费者需求陷入停滞。

The weak data has lifted expectations that the Federal Reserve will take further monetary easing action at their meeting this week.

疲弱的数据加强了如下预期，即美联储(Fed)将在本周举行的会议上出台进一步的货币宽松举措。

Separate figures released on Tuesday showed small business sentiment rose in August.

周二发布的其它数据显示，8月份小企业信心上升。

The small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business rose to 92.9 from 91.2 in July, as owners felt more confident about sales, employment and capital spending.

全美独立企业联盟(NFIB)发布的8月份小企业信心指数从7月份的91.2升至92.9。企业主们在销售、招聘和资本支出等方面都更加有信心。

Analysts had expected the index to reach a level of 91.5.

分析师本来预计该指数将微升至91.5。

However, few employers continue to think the current period is a good time to expand on the back of political uncertainty, and small-business owners continue to act cautiously when it comes to growing their enterprises.

然而，由于政治上的不确定性，很少有雇主继续认为当前时期适合扩张，而小企业主们在扩张问题上继续保持谨慎。

The survey of small-business owners asks questions based on plans to increase employment, capital outlays and inventories as well as whether they expect economic and credit conditions and sales to improve.

在调查中，小企业主们被问到的问题包括是否计划增加招聘、资本支出和库存，以及是否预计经济和信贷环境以及销售状况将会改善。

“In spite of a terrible jobs report from the labour department and an increase in the number who view the current period as a terrible time to expand, small-business owners continue to show their resilience, said NFIB chief economist William Dunkelberg.

NFIB首席经济学家威廉·邓克尔伯格(William Dunkelberg)表示：“尽管劳工部发布的就业数据很糟糕，而且越来越多的人认为当前时期不利于扩张，但小企业主继续表现出他们的适应能力。

“It is possible that the uptick in their spirits will forecast the election outcome and the chance for a favourable resolution of our fiscal dilemma. If election odds start changing, [business] owners and consumers may change their minds about spending, hiring and saving.

“小企业信心上升很可能预示着大选结果，以及美国财政困境有顺利解决的可能。如果大选形势开始改变，企业主和消费者很可能改变他们对支出、招聘和储蓄等方面的态度。