张维迎：理念决定未来

ZHANG WEIYING

张维迎

Even as China's economy gallops ahead, its society is facing increasingly sharp contradictions. Income and regional inequalities are expanding, official corruption is rampant, access to medical care and education are uneven, and environmental degradation is worsening. As a result, discontent among the Chinese people has increased even as their living standards have improved.

伴随中国经济的高速增长，中国社会的各种矛盾也越来越突出，越来越尖锐，诸如收入分配不均，地区差异扩大，官场腐败严重，医疗和教育不公平，生态环境恶化，等等这些问题，使得人们的不满情绪不仅没有随生活条件的改善而减少，反而有所上升。

As we come to grips with these problems, two opposing viewpoints have emerged among China's intellectual community: the 'China model' theory and the 'failure of reform' theory. But in a sign of how impoverished Beijing's intellectual debate has become, the two theories aren't all that different from each other and the both entirely miss the point about what troubles China.

在如何评价过去的改革和指导未来的改革上，中国知识界出现了两种我不认同的思潮：中国模式论和改革失败论。这两种思潮看起来不同，但本质是一样的，他们表面上看都有一定的事实依据，但他们对事实的解释是错误的。

'China model' theorists believe that the country's economic miracle stems from its unique governance system, which at its foundation comprises heavy government intervention in the economy and the state ownership of strategic industries. This is vastly different from the development road taken by Western economies, including the so-called 'Washington consensus' that advocates free competition and private ownership.

中国模式论者认为，中国的经济奇迹来自独特的“中国模式，其基本特点是强大的政府干预和国有经济主导，完全不同于英美等西方发达国家所走过的道路，不同于“华盛顿共识所主张的自由竞争和私有企业制度。

The idea of a 'China model' was first proposed by non-Chinese scholars specializing in developing countries, but gained currency in China after the 2010 global economic crisis, especially among government officials. Faced with China's current troubles, adherents of this school of thought basically offer a move-along-nothing-to-see-here response: As bad as China might seem, thanks to the wisdom of the Communist Party at least it's better off than the West, and the nature of the Beijing model means officials have the capacity to right the ship.

中国模式论最初由一些海外研究发展中国家（包括中国）的学者提出，在2010年全球金融危机后，得到一些国内学者特别是政府官员的信奉和追捧。这一派别对中国当前的问题视而不见：中国的情况或许是很糟糕，但由于中国共产党的智慧，它至少也比西方要好。中国模式的本质意味着官员有能力掌舵。

Advocates of the 'failure of reform' theory wouldn't disagree that China has created a new way, but think that's the problem and not the solution. They say that China now relies too much on the market and that the country needs a return to a more statist model. The 'failure of reform' theory arose out of China's political left, but also has its fans among average Chinese citizens and some in government.

改革失败论者不否认中国开辟了新的道路，但认为这非但没有解决问题，反而是问题的根源。他们认为中国当前的社会矛盾是市场化导致的，主张回到计划经济时代。改革失败论主要是国内一些左派学者的主张，在普通大众中也有不少附和者，甚至也得到个别相当级别的政府官员的认同。

This split makes for a lot of debate, but ultimately it's a debate about nothing because both viewpoints have more in common than not. At their root, they both believe in the government's ability to manage the economy and are hostile to the logic of the market. They both celebrate centralized authority and belittle entrepreneurs. It is hard, if not impossible, to find anywhere within China's policy or intellectual elite anyone who publicly swings in the other direction岸not for the same amount of government intervention as today or for more, but for less.

这两种思潮看起来不同，但本质是一样的：迷信政府的力量，不相信市场的逻辑；迷信政治家的高瞻远瞩，不相信企业家的深谋远虑；迷信权威，不相信自由。在中国政策精英和知识精英中几乎找不到有人公开主张减少当前的政府干预。

This omission is curious given how China has reached this point. The economic reforms began at a time when China's government was omnipresent, and this growth has been sustainable only because the state receded further into the background. Similarly, state-owned enterprises have seen their role in society and the economy diminish with time. While the government relaxed its controls, market prices, village enterprises, private firms, private entrepreneurship, and foreign investors insured that the Chinese economy thrived.

考虑到中国发展到现在经过的历程，这种缺失让人奇怪。中国的改革从计划经济下的全能政府开始。改革进程中我们之所以能有持续的经济高增长，是因为政府管得越来越少，国有企业的比重越来越小，而不是政府管得多和国有部门大。正是伴随着政府管制的放松，才有了市场价格，才出现了个体户、乡镇企业、私人企业、外资企业等非国有企业形态，中国经济才不仅没有崩溃，而且保持了较高的增长速度。

Contrary to both dominant schools of thought, state intervention and government ownership are the causes of China's inequality and profound contradictions, not the cure. The government's control of vast amounts of resources and the excessive interference in the economy encourage official corruption and the collusion between the government and business. This has eroded the culture of business and destroyed the proper functioning of the market economy. The monopoly profits and above-market wages in state-owned enterprises are an important cause of the unequal distribution of income.

政府高度干预和国有企业主导不仅不是中国经济奇迹的原因，恰恰相反，它们倒是改革失败论者所大肆渲染的中国社会重重矛盾和不公平现象的原因。政府控制大量的资源和政府对经济的过分干预，是官商勾结的直接原因和官员腐败的主要温床，严重腐蚀了商业文化，破坏了市场的游戏规则。垄断性产业国有企业攫取的垄断利润使得国有部门职工的待遇远超出市场的公平水平，也是收入分配不公的重要原因。

The conceptual failures of intellectuals in Beijing can have real-world consequences to the extent that no one in or around the government is thinking creatively about how to solve the problems facing the country岸and indeed everyone seems to be willfully ignoring potential free-market solutions.

北京知识界的观念错误造成的现实后果是如此严重，以至于政府内外没有人创造性地思考如何解决中国所面临的问──事实上，似乎所有的人都顽固地忽视自由市场有可能提供的问题解决方案。

Yet we can imagine a better way. If we open up the healthcare market and free private capital, we would find that difficulty and expense of purchasing healthcare services would diminish. If we allow capital to invest in our schools and to found new universities, the level of education in China would rise. If we create a constitutional government and establish the absolute authority of the law, then the power of the government would be put under the rule of law. We would thus see fewer cases of the theft and demolition of private property by local governments that lead to hundreds of thousands of protests a year.

如果我们能早点开放医疗市场，允许民间资本自由进入，而不是保持国有医院的垄断地位，“看病难、看病贵的问题绝不会如此严重；如果允许民间自由办学校、办大学，中国的教育质量绝不会如此低；如果我们能树立宪法和法律的绝对权威，将政府的权力严格置于法律之下，绝不可能有那么多导致每年发生数十万起抗议行动的野蛮拆迁事件发生。

If farmers and peasants were to truly own their land, the plunder of their livelihoods would diminish. If the freedom to become an entrepreneur was not subject to the approval of the government, collusion between the government and big business would decrease. If citizens have the right to choose their leaders and the freedom of speech and the press, official corruption would be restrained.

如果农民真正拥有土地的所有权，绝不可能有那么多对农民土地的不公平掠夺；如果做企业是每个人的平等权利而不是政府以审批的形式赋予一部分人的特权，官商勾结绝不会如此普遍；如果公民有真正的选举权和言论出版自由，官员的腐败行为绝不可能如此肆无忌惮。

There's no good reason for Beijing's paucity of bold ideas. In the first two decades of China's transition, such ideas trumped vested interests, which is why reform overcame interest groups' opposition.

中国改革的头二十年，也就是上世纪80年代和90年代，是理念战胜利益，我们相信了的东西，尽管有阻力也要推行，所以我们的改革取得了进步。

However, in the past decade, it is the vested interests that have dominated the ideas. Various anti-reform policies have been implemented for protecting and strengthening interest groups. China's future will depend upon whether free-market ideas again win out.

但是看看现在的情况，基本上是利益战胜理念，没有多少人在谈理念，几乎所有出台的政策都是为了保护和增加各个部门的自我利益。中国的未来依赖于理念能否再次战胜利益。