英国应为公投做好准备

Not so long ago, I was asked by a European head of government whether I thought David Cameron would be willing to compromise on increasing the size of the EU budget if, in return, his European partners helped Britain in future treaty negotiations on EU governance. I did not think Mr Cameron would consider the two topics linked. On matters to do with Europe, he tends to live day by day, rather than year to year, and on the budget his hands are tied.

不久前，欧洲的一位政府首脑问我是否认为，戴维·卡梅伦(David Cameron)愿在扩大欧盟(EU)预算规模的问题上妥协，以换取他的欧洲伙伴将来在欧盟治理条约的谈判中帮助英国。在我看来，卡梅伦不会将这两个问题联系起来考虑。在欧洲相关事务上，他倾向于以天为单位做打算，而不是以年为单位做打算；而且，在预算问题上，他的手脚已经被捆住了。

The UK prime minister’s position is starting to attract sympathy among his continental counterparts. But this is not stopping most of them, including Germany, writing off Britain’s future in Europe – much to their regret. Having been angered over last December’s “veto by Mr Cameron, they concluded that Britain was consciously heading for the exit door. They may not think that Mr Cameron has shown much leadership in standing up to his party but the October vote in the House of Commons for a cut in the EU budget demonstrated to them his lack of freedom to manoeuvre. They were also taken aback by Tory bullying and surprised by Labour’s behaviour in supporting them.

英国首相的处境开始引起欧洲大陆同行的同情。但这并没有阻止包括德国在内的大多数欧洲国家相当遗憾地将英国的未来排除在欧洲之外。去年12月卡梅伦投下的“否决票激怒了这些国家，它们断定英国正有意地朝着退出欧盟的方向前进。它们或许并不认为卡梅伦在直面保守党内挑战方面展现了多少领导力，不过，10月份英国下院就欧盟预算削减问题举行的表决向它们表明，卡梅伦并没有多少腾挪的自由度。这些国家还被保守党的咄咄逼人吓了一跳，并对工党支持保守党之举感到意外。

Whether this particular tactical alliance will last is questionable. Labour’s leaders are preoccupied by domestic politics, not Europe’s future. They want to turn Mr Cameron into John Major: “weak at home, weak abroad. This generation of Labour leaders is not anti-Europe but it is not anchored as firmly in the pro-EU attitudes of the past. Partly it is an age thing. Memories of the second world war and the cold war drove sentiment in favour of unity. These memories have faded.

这一特别的战术性联盟能否维持下去还很难说。工党领导人一门心思考虑的是国内政治，而不是欧洲的未来。他们想把卡梅伦变为另一个约翰·梅杰(John Major)：“在国内和国外均软弱无力。工党的这一代领导人不是反欧盟的，但他们亲欧盟的立场已没有过去那么坚定。在一定程度上，这也许是由岁月造成的。英国人对二战及冷战的记忆过去确曾激发倾向于欧洲统一的情绪，但这些记忆现在已经淡去了。

Now, Labour leaders are also aware of growing eurosceptic public opinion and don’t want to get too far on the wrong side of it. Add to this the temptation of humiliating the prime minister, and bingo!

如今，工党领导人也注意到了民意中与日俱增的“欧洲怀疑论情绪，他们不愿在违背这一潮流方面走得太远。除此之外还有能够羞辱首相这一诱惑，于是一切就这样发生了！

Nevertheless, there are very few in Labour’s ranks who share the predominant Conservative view that Britain, like Norway, should aspire to a customs union relationship with the EU. Or the delusion of the hardliners that, by not being in the EU, Britain could become master of its own fate. That if only we could take ourselves out of Europe’s mainstream, a wonderful new vista would open up of an offshore Britain, providing a financial and service hub to the rest of Europe, trading freely with the world; a kind of modern-day Hong Kong to Europe’s China. But Britain is not Hong Kong and Europe is not China.

不过，工党中很少有人认同保守党的一个观点，即英国应像挪威那样追求与欧盟建立一种关税同盟关系。也很少有人认同强硬派人士的幻想：退出欧盟的英国将成为自己命运的主宰；只要我们将自己排除于欧洲主流之外，一幅美妙的图景就将在拥有离岸地位的英国面前展开——英国将向欧洲其余国家提供一个金融及服务业中心，并将自由地与世界进行贸易；英国将成为欧洲版“中国的香港。但英国不是香港，欧洲大陆也不是中国。

It is some time since I had a conversation with Mr Cameron about Europe but when he came to visit me in Brussels he said two things that struck me at the time. First, that Europe should stop peering into its constitutional navel and get on with doing what it is best at, building continental responses to global problems. Second, that if you put two Conservatives in the same room it will not take them long to fall out over Europe.

我上次与卡梅伦谈论欧洲问题距今已有段日子了，但他当时来布鲁塞尔与我会面时提到的两点却给我留下了深刻印象。第一点是，欧洲应停止对其宪法核心的讨论，去做其最擅长的事——为欧洲大陆构建应对全球问题的对策。第二点是，如果你把两名保守党人士关进同一个房间，他们要不了多久就会为欧洲问题吵起来。

Burying Europe is no longer an option for him, but nor is it an option for Ed Miliband, the Labour leader. Together with the Liberal Democrats’ Nick Clegg, they will have to take positions on successive blueprints of EU reform. They will all have to explain their policies. The time for fence-sitting is over.

回避欧洲问题对卡梅伦来说已不再是可行的选择，对工党领袖埃德·米利班德(Ed Miliband)来说也是如此。他们两人以及自由民主党领袖尼克·克莱格(Nick Clegg)，都将不得不就欧盟的一连串改革蓝图明确立场，并阐明自己的政策。“骑墙的日子已经一去不复返了。

The difference between the Conservatives on the one hand, and Labour and the Liberal Democrats on the other, is that while the former will seek a wholesale renegotiation of Britain’s place in Europe by means of a “repatriation of powers, the latter will seek reform firmly within the single market. This is the nub of the issue for those who think constructively about Europe: without closing the door on using the single currency, Britain should help stabilise the eurozone through its further integration and ensure Britain’s financial service and other interests are fully safeguarded alongside it.

保守党与工党及自由民主党的区别在于：前者寻求借助于“权力遣返，就英国在欧洲的地位进行一揽子重新谈判；后两者则坚定地寻求在单一市场内进行改革。对那些对欧洲问题作建设性思考的人来说，这才是问题的核心：英国不要关闭使用单一货币的大门，而应通过与欧元区进一步整合促进欧元区的稳定，并确保在取得这一结果的同时，英国金融服务业的利益以及其他利益能得到充分保障。

Formal negotiations on a new treaty are unlikely to get under way until 2015. But what will continue to spook the British debate – and alienate Britain’s EU partners – is the anti-Europeans’ incessant demand, echoed by the eurosceptic press, for an in/out referendum on Britain’s EU membership, regardless of the timetable and before any new EU plan has emerged.

关于新条约的正式谈判在2015年前不太可能启动。然而，反欧盟人士会不断要求就英国是否退出欧盟举行公投，这些要求还将得到持欧洲怀疑论立场的媒体的呼应。无论公投的时间表如何，在任何新的欧盟计划出现之前，这些要求都会继续激起英国人的辩论，离间英国与其欧洲伙伴的关系。

The only justification for a referendum is to allow the people to determine their position after new arrangements have been proposed.

公投的唯一合理性在于，新的安排提出后，公投能使人民有机会确定他们的立常

A test of opinion is inevitable, and pro-Europeans need to abandon their complacency about this. They should acknowledge that their case has largely been won by default and that it needs to be re-articulated with fresh vigour. Britain is limbering up for another battle over Europe and those who take a realistic view of its future need to prepare, whichever party they support.

对民意展开一次检验是不可避免的，亲欧盟人士需要摒弃在这个问题上的自满情绪。他们应该承认，他们的观点之所以胜出，很大程度上是因为没有与之抗衡的观点；这一观点需要注入新的活力，重新进行组织。英国即将迎来又一场围绕欧洲问题展开的战斗，那些以务实态度看待英国未来的人应为此做好准备——不论他们支持哪个政党。

The writer is a former UK business secretary and EU trade commissioner

本文作者为英国前商务大臣及欧盟贸易专员