分析：人民币国际化不等于自由化

How else does one make sense of Wednesday’s announcement that non-residents in Hong Kong will be allowed to convert unlimited amounts of renminbi at a time when the PBoC is also making efforts to push it down relative to the dollar?

香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)日前宣布，非香港居民将可以兑换不限数量的人民币。而与此同时，中国央行(PBoC)还在努力压低人民币兑美元汇率。对于这两件事，人们能从中品味出其它含义吗？

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s announcement suggests continuing incremental steps in the Chinese central bank’s efforts to internationalise the renminbi; while letting it decline relative to the dollar suggests a return to policies that favour China’s exporters and annoy the?US?and others.

香港金管局的声明表明，中国央行在继续采取渐进式措施推动人民币国际化；而压低人民币兑美元汇率则表明，中国又恢复了支持本国出口商、让美国及其它国家感到不满的政策。

The renminbi has been declining over the past several days. The pressure to push it down is coming as growth slows in the?economy.

人民币汇率在过去几天里不断走低。随着中国经济增长放缓，人民币出现了贬值压力。

The HKMA announcement suggests that at least Hong Kong will remain a pre-eminent?place for?experiments to free up the currency. Hitherto, local residents have been free to convert Rmb20,000 a day. The latest gambit takes this further for expatriates living in Hong Kong but the question remains how many will rush to take up this opportunity.

香港金管局的声明表明，至少香港仍将是人民币自由化试验的首选地。目前，香港本地居民每天最多可兑换2万元人民币。最新举措将这项政策延伸到旅居香港的外来人士，但问题依然是：有多少人会抢着利用这种机会？

It is precisely because the renminbi is not appreciating against the dollar this year that Hong Kong citizens, always game for a punt on a currency or a horse, have been less eager to put money in the currency.

正是因为今年人民币对美元没有升值，始终热衷于炒汇或赌马的香港市民才对持有人民币兴趣不大。

Large banks have also been able to offer payroll in renminbi in the city but there have been few takers.

香港大型银行也能用人民币发放薪水，但接受者寥寥无几。

What this one step forward and two steps backward approach suggests is that, for the medium term, China’s efforts to free up the renminbi will remain somewhat confused.

这种“进一步、退两步的做法表明，中期而言，中国自由化人民币的努力将依然有些混乱。

When growth slows for the country’s exports sector, China’s policy makers revert to usual form and favour their exporters.

在中国出口部门的增长放缓之际，中国政策制定者恢复常规方式，开始支持本国出口商。

While the move to allow non-residents to convert unlimited amounts of renminbi was eye-catching, less noticed but arguably more significant was a report from a provincial economic planning authority that said nearly a quarter of the large and medium-sized?enterprises in the country’s most export-oriented?province,?Guangdong, reported losses in the first five months.

允许非香港居民无限兑换人民币的举措很吸引眼球，但人们不太注意、却可以说更重要的是一份来自省级经济规划部门的报告。该报告指出，在中国最具出口导向的广东省，近四分之一的大中型企业在今年头5个月出现亏损。

Shrinking orders from customers overseas means fewer jobs for the country’s migrant workers, who might turn restive in its heavily populated coastal cities.

来自海外客户的订单趋于减少意味着，中国农民工的工作机会也将减少。在中国人口密集的沿海城市，农民工们可能会变得躁动不安。

This makes China’s policy makers understandably nervous. This might explain why the PBoC has been setting the mid-point of the renminbi’s trading band lower in the past few days, even as much of the world believes the currency is at least moderately undervalued, as the IMF noted?on Wednesday.

可想而知，这会让中国的政策制定者们感到不安。或许正因为这一点，中国央行在过去几天里一直将人民币汇率中间价设在较低的水平，即便全球大部分国家认为人民币至少被“中度低估，正如国际货币基金组织(IMF)在上周三指出的那样。

Internationalising the renminbi via Hong Kong is one thing, freeing the currency is an altogether larger challenge. In a command economy, it was always overly optimistic to have believed otherwise.

人民币取道香港进行国际化是一回事，而人民币自由化却是一个更大的挑战。在一个计划经济中，认为二者是一码事的观点始终是过于乐观了。