分析：“一国两币”可行吗？

There has been much talk recently of China’s moves towards full convertibility of the renminbi. And there has been much other talk about the wisdom of removing the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar. But a column in Monday’s FTfm proposes uniting those two events.

最近，人们纷纷谈论着中国为实现人民币完全可兑换而采取的举措。与此同时，也有很多人在谈论取消港元盯住美元的联系汇率制的明智之处。然而，英国《金融时报》基金管理(FTfm)专刊的一篇专栏建议将这两件事结合起来。

Richard Harris, chief executive of Port Shelter Investment Management thinks his unusual idea has legs.

Port Shelter投资管理公司(Port Shelter Investment Management)首席执行官理查德·哈里斯(Richard Harris)认为，自己的这一观点虽然新鲜，但有根有据。

The problem China faces in achieving full convertibility, he points out, is that the renminbi is very much undervalued. China’s halfway house solution to assist overseas trading – the offshore renminbi known as CNH (Chinese yuan HK) might be the answer. The CNH trades very closely in value to China’s domestic currency the CNY (Chinese yuan) but neither is freely convertible.

他指出，中国在实现人民币完全可兑换的过程中面临的问题是，人民币汇率目前被大大低估了。答案或许在于中国为促进海外贸易而推出的折中方案——香港离岸市场人民币(CNH)。CNH的汇率与内地在岸人民币(CNY)的汇率十分接近，但二者均未实现可自由兑换。

Instead of working towards uniting its offshore and onshore currencies and making both freely convertible, Harris sees a Hong Kong dollar solution.

哈里斯认为，与其努力将离岸与在岸人民币统一起来，让两者均实现可自由兑换，不如从港元着手寻找解决方案。

“The Hong Kong dollar itself is a dead unit having been pegged first to the pound and later to the US dollar with the current rate fixed in 1983, he argues, adding that although the current peg is often criticised, removing it is thought to be too dangerous.

他表示：“港元先是盯住英镑，而后又在1983年确立了现行的盯住美元的联系汇率制，经过这些，港元本身已经失去了活力。他进一步谈到，尽管现行的联系汇率制饱受诟病，但废除这一制度却被认为是过于冒险之举。

“The obvious answer is to combine the dead HK dollar with the embryonic CNH. This would be a completely independent, floating currency not fungible with the CNY. The CNY would be used for current account transactions such as exports and imports, while the new Chinese dollar (HKD/CNH) would cater for capital account financial transactions.

“答案显然在于将死气沉沉的港元与处于发展初期的CNH结合起来。这将是一种完全独立的、汇率浮动的货币，与CNY是相互不可替代的。CNY将用于进出口等经常账户交易，而新的币种(HKD/CNH)则用于资本账户的金融交易。

The beauty of this audacious move would be to establish a currency unit of sufficient liquidity to make it immediately investible.

这一大胆之举的妙处在于，它将建立一种拥有充分流动性的货币，从而可以立刻对其进行投资。

Harris says the new Chinese dollar would have M2 money supply of $830bn, placing it within striking distance of the Swiss franc’s $940bn. The Chinese dollar would then appreciate sharply and become a haven like the Swiss franc and the yen – and the solution would leave the Chinese economy largely unaffected.

哈里斯指出，新币种的广义货币供应量(M2)将为8300亿美元，与瑞士法郎9400亿美元的广义货币供应量相差不大。接下来，这一新币种将大幅升值，成为像瑞士法郎和日元那样的避险币种——而且这一解决方案也基本上不会对中国经济造成什么影响。

In the fullness of time, the Chinese dollar and the Chinese yuan would become close enough in value to merge.

有朝一日，新币种和CNY在汇率上将逐渐靠近，最终合二为一。

With China being comfortable with its “one country, two systems the idea of one country, two currencies does not seem so far fetched. Harris could be on to something.

鉴于中国并不抵触“一国两制，因此，“一国两币的构想似乎也没那么遥不可及。哈里斯也许真的说到点子上了。