Lex专栏：欧元“死缓”？

It used to be Brussels and its extemporising bailouts that bought the eurozone some time. Now it is Greece’s turn. The weekend election result has given proponents of the country’s path of savage austerity and adherence to the eurozone a final opportunity to prove they are credible. The danger of an imminent, enforced expulsion from the bloc has been lifted. But one thing has changed: the election has rendered Greece a sideshow in the eurozone crisis, for a while. The real action, unhappily, is elsewhere.

以往是布鲁塞尔及其仓促安排的纾困为欧元区争取到一些时间，现在轮到希腊了。上周末的希腊大选结果，为支持这个国家走无情紧缩之路、坚持留在欧元区的人们提供了最后的机会，让他们证明自己是可信的。希腊马上被踢出欧元区的危险消除了。但有件事已经改变：选举让希腊暂时成为欧元区危机的一个小插曲。不幸的是，真正的险情发生在其它国家。

True, the election outcome sent the bombed-out share prices of Greek companies soaring: National Bank of Greecewas up 11 per cent and lottery operator OPAProse 12 per cent. But the result offers no relief for Greek companies staring at credit shortages and a frozen banking system. When that starts to feed through, Greek corporates could take a more severe beating.

没错，选举结果导致希腊各公司暴跌的股价大幅飙升：希腊国民银行(National Bank of Greecewas)上涨11%，彩票运营商OPAP则上涨12%。但选举结果并未给面对信贷匮乏和银行体系冻结的希腊企业带来任何慰藉。当这些问题开始发挥影响的时候，希腊企业可能遭受更为沉重的打击。

Still, the most worrying number yesterday came not from Greece but from Spain: the yield on 10-year Spanish bonds rose nearly 30 basis points to 7.1 per cent – another eurozone-era record. This month’s €100bn bailout for Spain’s banks is proving a red herring. As investors fret that Spain itself may need recourse to the eurozone’s bailout facility, it is clear that the eurozone has bigger problems than who governs – for whatever length of time – in Athens.

无论如何，昨日最令人担忧的数据并非来自希腊，而是来自西班牙：西班牙10年期国债收益率飙升近30个基点，至7.1%，再次创出欧元时代的新高。欧盟本月为西班牙银行提供1000亿欧元纾困，结果证明只是转移了人们的视线。随着投资者担心西班牙政府本身可能需要求助于欧元区纾困机制，欧元区显然面临比谁在希腊主政（无论时间多长）更大的问题。

Several things must now happen. Greece’s new government needs to be created from a muddle of fractious potential coalition allies. Then it has to persuade its creditors to extend and even soften the terms of its second bailout. That involves convincing Germany that it should be cut some slack. If Athens cannot do that, another election appears a certainty within months. But that, for now, is Greece’s problem.

有好几件事现在必须发生。希腊需要从诸多矛盾重重的潜在联盟伙伴中产生新政府。接下来，它不得不说服其债权人延长（甚至放宽）第二轮纾困的条款。这就要求希腊需要说服德国对它施以援手。如果雅典方面无法做到这些，几个月内再次举行选举似乎是没有悬念的。但目前来说，这是希腊的问题。

The viability of the euro remains in question, whether or not Greece is a member of the bloc. Athens’ outsized problems tend to obscure this reality. Greeks have voted to give themselves a stay of execution. Everybody else should keep focused on the bigger picture.

无论希腊是否留在欧元区，欧元的“生存能力依然存疑。希腊面临的超出该国重要性的严重问题，往往掩盖这一现实。希腊民众通过投票给自己提供了一个“缓期执行的机会。但其他人应该继续聚焦于大形势。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析