中国制造业初现起色

China’s manufacturing sector has showed signs of improved health in October, adding to the evidence that the world’s second-biggest economy is stabilising after two years of slowing growth.

中国制造业在10月份出现好转迹象，进一步证明全球第二大经济体在持续两年增长放缓之后正在企稳。

HSBC’s flash China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, the earliest indicator of the state of factory orders in the country, moved up from 47.9 in September to 49.1 in October.

反映中国工厂订单状况的最早指标——汇丰(HSBC)中国制造业采购经理指数预览值(flash PMI)从9月份的47.9升至10月份的49.1。

At below 50, the reading indicates that the Chinese industrial sector is still contracting but is in better shape than a month earlier.

指数低于50说明中国工业部门仍在收缩，但其状况好于上月。

In highlighting the apparent resilience of the Chinese economy, yesterday’s PMI numbers also dimmed the prospects of a bigger stimulus effort from the government, analysts said.

分析师们表示，昨日的PMI预览数据在突显中国经济显然具有韧性的同时，也降低了政府作出更大刺激努力的可能性。

Economic data released over the past two weeks – from a 10 per cent rise in exports to a big jump in the money supply – suggest that the economy could stage a moderate recovery in the coming months. China’s gross domestic product grew 7.4 per cent in the third quarter, the government said this month.

过去两周期间发布的经济数据（从出口同比增长10%到货币供应大幅上升）似乎表明，中国经济有望在未来几个月出现温和复苏。政府本月表示，第三季度中国的国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长7.4%。

“The better October flash PMI and September data paint a consistent picture of a likely further pick-up in economic activity on the back of more accommodative monetary conditions, increasing infrastructure investment, recovering property market activity and improving external demand, wrote Jian Chiang, China economist at Barclays, in a note to clients.

“10月份有所好转的PMI预览值和9月份数据相互吻合，都说明经济活动有望进一步回升，其支持因素包括更加宽松的货币条件、基础设施投资不断增加、房地产市场活动不断复苏，以及外部需求出现起色，巴克莱(Barclays)中国经济学家常健在一份发给客户的简报中表示。

Reflecting this renewed optimism, producers have started to increase prices. HSBC economists Sun Junwei and Qu Hongbin pointed to the rise in steel and cement costs in recent weeks on the back of increased construction activity. “Both PPI and CPI inflation likely bottomed in September and will see a modest rebound in coming months, they said.

突显乐观情绪再度出现的迹象之一是，生产商开始提价。汇丰经济学家孙俊伟和屈宏斌指出，在建筑活动增加的支持下，近几周中国钢材和水泥价格有所上升。“PPI（工业品出厂价格指数）和CPI（消费价格指数）通胀很可能都已在9月份触底，并将在未来几个月温和反弹，他们表示。

The manufacturing survey also provided some good news for the global economy, with export orders contracting more slowly. HSBC said this was probably the result of Christmas orders and brighter US growth prospects.

对中国制造业的调查还提供了一些有关全球经济的好消息。数据显示，中国企业的出口订单降速有所放缓。汇丰称，这很可能是圣诞销售旺季订单和美国增长前景转好的结果。

But it warned that the outlook for Chinese exports “remains challenging in view of looming fiscal problems in the US and recession in Europe.

但汇丰警告称，面对即将到来的美国财政问题和欧洲经济衰退，中国出口前景“仍具有挑战性。

The government has steadfastly refused to deploy a large-scale scale stimulus as it did in 2010 when the global financial crisis struck, fearful of giving rise to an even bigger bubble in the property sector. Instead, it has opted for a slight boost to fiscal spending and a slight increase in bank lending, believing these will be enough to keep the economy on track.

中国政府迄今坚定拒绝像2010年全球金融危机期间那样，出台大规模刺激方案，担心那将引发更大的房地产泡沫。相反，中国政府决定略微增加财政支出和银行放贷，相信这些措施将足以支撑经济增长。

“We expect that the government will continue the policy easing measures at a similar pace, so as to ensure the firming up of the recovery process, said Zhu Haibin, an economist with JPMorgan. “However, the likelihood of a significant push-up in stimulus measures is small.

“我们预期政府将以类似节奏继续放松政策，以确保复苏进程更加稳固，摩根大通(JPMorgan)经济学家朱海滨表示。“不过，显著加大刺激措施的几率不大。

Additional reporting by Simon Rabinovitch

欧阳德(Simon Rabinovitch)补充报道