苏格兰独立辩论未入正题

I spent last week in Scotland. It proved the worst week for Scottish nationalists since they took control of government there.

上周一周我在苏格兰度过。事实证明，上周对苏格兰民族主义者而言是他们自掌握政府大权以来最糟糕的一周。

The Scottish National party government plans a referendum in the second half of 2014 on separation from the UK. But the core vote for independence is about 25 per cent of the electorate. The challenge for nationalists is to at least double that number. Extreme discontent such as a global economic crisis might do it. Otherwise they must persuade the complacent and fearful middle that under independence things would be just the same, only better.

苏格兰民族党（Scottish National Party，简称SNP）政府计划于2014年下半年就是否从英国独立出来举行公投，但支持独立的核心选民人数只占全体选民的25%左右。民族主义者面临的难题是，如何将这个比例至少翻一番。一些能引起极端不满的情形（如全球经济危机），或许能帮助他们达成这一目标。否则，民族主义者必须说服满足于现状、对独立感到恐惧的中间阶层：独立以后除了生活只会变得更加美好，其他一切都都保持原样。

That is a hard proposition to articulate, even more to sell. The attempt alienates many of your supporters. For 50 years after Irish independence, the country’s development was held back by a romantic vision of a self-sufficient utopia. Only after Ireland joined the EU in 1973 did it come to terms with the realities of life as a small country in an interconnected world.

这个观点说起来就有些底气不足，更难以让别人相信。努力推销这个观点会让很多支持者倒戈。在独立后的50年间，爱尔兰一直认为自己是一个自给自足的乌托邦，这种浪漫的幻想阻碍了该国的发展。直到1973年、爱尔兰加入欧盟(EU)，这个国家才接受了这样一个现实：在这个相互联系的世界里，爱尔兰只是一个小国。

But that fantasy has its Scottish analogue. Last week two pacifist members of the Scottish parliament resigned from the SNP. Their defection theoretically jeopardised the Scottish government’s majority at Holyrood. Not really, because the romantics have nothing else about which to dream.

但苏格兰也有类似的幻想。上周，苏格兰议会中两名和平主义议员从苏格兰民族党辞职。理论上说，两人的脱党损害了苏格兰政府在苏格兰议会中的多数地位。但其实不然，因为浪漫主义者剩下的只有独立梦了。

What would an independent Scotland actually be like, however? The only sensible answer is that no one really knows, because the outcome would be the result of protracted negotiations between the putatively independent country and its international partners, particularly the EU and the continuing government of the UK. The subjects of discussion would range from currency, fiscal co-ordination and immigration policies to value added tax dispensations, accumulated pension rights and maritime boundaries.

不过，独立后的苏格兰到底会是什么样？唯一理智的回答是，其实谁也不知道，因为答案将取决于这个假设已经独立的苏格兰与其国际伙伴（尤其是欧盟和失去苏格兰后的英国政府）之间的长期谈判。谈判将包括许多问题，从货币、财政协调和移民政策，到增值税分配、累积养老金权利(accumulated pension right)和海洋边界。

To ask either proponents or opponents of independence to explain how these issues would be resolved is a waste of time. A waste of time because both groups are presenting exaggerated pictures to rally support. A waste of time because initial positions are negotiating stances, not expectations of outcome. But most of all a waste of time because it is evident that few participants in the debate, on either side, have thought about the questions raised in any serious or specific detail.

不管是支持独立者还是反对独立者，询问他们对如何解决这些问题的看法都是浪费时间。之所以这样说，是因为两边都在夸大其词、以争取更多支持，也是因为两边的回答从一开始就是为了作为谈判的筹码、而非依据对结果的预期做出。但之所以这样说，最重要的原因是，辩论双方中很少有人严肃、具体地考虑这些问题的细节。

As was illustrated last week when the strange claim that Scotland’s membership of the EU would be automatic confronted its own reality. The supporting legal advice which the Scotland government had fought in the courts not to disclose turns out never to have existed. To suppose the first minister of Scotland could arrive uninvited in Brussels, no doubt accompanied by the pipes and guns of the Gordon Highlanders, to demand his rightful place at the top table, was perhaps the most ludicrous of romantic fallacies.

上周的事证明了上述情况。上周出现一种奇怪的言论，称苏格兰将自动获得欧盟成员国资格，这是不切实际的。苏格兰政府在法庭上极力要求不予披露的法律建议，最终证明根本是子虚乌有。有一种浪漫主义的想象，认为苏格兰首席大臣会不请自来地出现在布鲁塞尔，与他一同出现当然还有吹着风笛、手持仪仗枪的戈登高地人团(Gordon Highlanders)士兵，首席大臣将要求布鲁塞尔给他应得的席位，与其他成员国首脑平起平坐……或许没有比这更可笑、更不切实际的想象了。

An independent Scotland would inevitably become a member of the EU – to deny the application of a new democratic western European state would contradict all the principles on which the institution is based. But the grubby reality is that difficult details of accession would have to be agreed, and that Spain and Belgium, which have separatist movements of their own, would have reason to adopt an unhelpful stance.

独立后的苏格兰势必将成为欧盟一员——如果拒绝一个新诞生的西欧民主国家加入，将与欧盟立足之本的所有原则相矛盾。但可耻的现实是，苏格兰加入欧盟的繁琐条文必须得到通过，而国内存在分离主义运动的西班牙和比利时可能有理由采取不合作立常

Discussions within the UK would also be problematic. The record of the UK Treasury is that no power it currently enjoys is relinquished without a fight. Scotland is less than 10 per cent of the UK, and this creates an asymmetry in discussions with both the EU and the UK that reflects a corresponding asymmetry of resources – and of interest. For Scotland the resolution of its negotiations is crucial; for everyone else, the entire issue is an irrelevant distraction.

与英国的谈判也将十分棘手。英国财政部(UK Treasury)过去让出每一项权利时都免不了一番争斗，这种情形未来应该也不会改变。苏格兰人口在英国总人口中只占不到10%，使得它在与欧盟和英国的谈判中处于弱势地位——这种弱势对应的是资源和利益上的弱势。对苏格兰而言，谈判结果至关重要；但对其他所有人而言，整件事无关紧要、徒增纷扰。

These exchanges illustrate that, at a fundamental level, this debate is not yet serious. Current polls show the independence movement well short of a majority. But there are two wild cards – the considerable political skills of Alex Salmond, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, and the unpopularity of the UK coalition government in Scotland. Still, the likely result is that the independence vote will be lost. But only if, and after, such a vote is won will a substantive process of working out what independence would actually entail in practice begin.

这些你来我往的交锋显示，这场关于独立的辩论就根本问题而言还没有严肃起来。目前民调显示，独立运动还远未获得多数人支持。但有两个可能改变大势的因素——苏格兰民族党党魁、苏格兰首席大臣亚历克斯·萨尔蒙德(Alex Salmond)高超的政治手腕，以及英国联合政府在苏格兰的惨淡人气。不过，独立公投的结果可能还是不会支持独立。但只有在公投结果支持独立之后，解决独立实际所涉及问题的实质性工作才会真正开始。