警惕中美关系的险区

The past week has offered a unique chance to compare politics in the world’s two biggest powers. The opaque formality of the Communist party congress in China makes an almost comic contrast with the made-for-television razzmatazz of the US presidential election.

过去一周为对比全球最大两个国家的政治提供了一个独一无二的机会。中国共产党全国代表大会不透明的会议程序，与在电视上直播、大张旗鼓的美国总统大选一对比几乎成了一出喜剧。

The political cultures of Washington and Beijing are utterly different. But the fates of the two countries are increasingly intertwined in ways that are likely to prove both fascinating and dangerous during President Barack Obama’s second term.

中美政治文化完全不同。但两国的命运正越来越紧密地联系在一起，在美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)第二任期内，这种关系可能既吸引人又危险。

Mr Obama is likely to leave office just a couple of years before the US cedes its position as the world’s largest economy to China. The narrowing of the gap between American and Chinese power is already raising tensions between the two nations. China is becoming more assertive – and America is pushing back. The dangers of miscalculation and conflict are increasing.

在奥巴马任满几年后，美国就可能会将其全球最大经济体的宝座拱手让与中国。不断缩小的中美实力差距已在两国之间引发紧张情绪。中国正变得更为强势，而美国却在后退。错误估计和发生冲突的危险正在加剧。

The two political transitions have played out against a backdrop of a bitter argument between China and Japan, over the ownership of some uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. Both China and Japan are making bellicose noises and dispatching ships to the area, cheered on by nationalists at home.

这两场政治过渡是在中日围绕东海一些无人居住的岛屿的所有权爆发激烈争议的背景下进行的。在国内民族主义者的鼓动下，中国和日本都摆出一副气势汹汹的架势，争相向该地区派遣船只。

The US is implicated in the argument through America’s security guarantee to Japan – which Washington has made clear covers the disputed islands. The US recently sent four former senior officials to Beijing to underline this message. Last week, about 44,000 American and Japanese military personnel took part in joint military exercises.

按照《美日安保条约》，美国也牵涉到这场争议之中。美国政府明确表示，该条约覆盖这些争议岛屿。美国最近派4名前高官访问北京，以强调这一信息。上周，约4.4万名美日军人参加了联合军事演习。

A territorial argument that involves the world’s three largest economies is dangerous enough. It is all the more worrying since it fits into a pattern of increasingly tense relations between China and its neighbours. Deng Xiaoping counselled his country to concentrate on economic development – and avoid disputes. It was a brilliant strategy, which ensured that China has enjoyed roughly 30 years of rapid economic growth, without significant international opposition.

涉及全球三大经济体的领土纠纷已是足够危险了。更令人担忧的是，这符合中国与邻国之间关系日益紧张的态势。邓小平曾告诫国人要集中精力发展经济，避免争端。这是明智的战略，它确保中国经历了约30年的快速经济增长，同时没有出现严重国际对立。

Over the past couple of years, however, things seem to have changed. Several of China’s neighbours – including India, Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as Japan – have become alarmed, as China has taken a tougher line on longstanding territorial disputes.

然而，过去几年情况似乎发生了变化。随着中国对长期领土争议采取更强硬的态度，中国的几个邻国——包括印度、越南和菲律宾以及日本——变得恐慌起来。

One theory is that the Chinese military is becoming a louder voice in Beijing, at the expense of economic technocrats and diplomats. At the party congress last week,

有一种观点认为，中国军方在政府内部获得了更大的发言权，而经济技术派和外交官的力量遭到削弱。上周在18大会议上，即将离任的中国国家主席胡锦涛明确呼吁把中国建设成海洋强国。实际上，中国已经在这样做了。中国现在已部署第一艘航空母舰，并计划未来部署更多艘。中国还在发展导弹和反卫星能力，这将危及美国在太平洋的军事影响力。

Hu Jintao, the outgoing leader of the Communist party, called explicitly for China to become a maritime power. In fact, this is already happening. China has now deployed its first aircraft carrier and aims to have several more. It is also developing missile and anti-satellite capabilities that threaten America’s military reach in the Pacific.

现在的重要问题是，以习近平为首的中国新一代领导集体在政策上是否会变得加倍强势。他们很有可能这样做。中国在一代人的时间里只知道快速经济增长，在此期间新一代领导集体在政治上成熟了起来。美国在伊拉克和阿富汗的问题以及2010年美国金融危机给他们留下了深刻的印象。显然，他们可能会高估中国的实力，低估美国的实力。

The big question now is whether the new generation of Chinese leaders, led by Xi Jinping, will double down on this more assertive policy. There is a strong chance that they will. This is a group that has come to political maturity during a generation in which China has known nothing but rapid economic growth. America’s problems in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the US financial crisis of 2010, have made a deep impression on them. There is clearly a risk that they will overestimate Chinese strength and underestimate American power.

在新的领导集体背后，更年轻的一代中国人是喝着极端民族主义的“狼奶长大的。在“天安门事件之后，中国政府一直希望以一种新的全民叙述——在学校里反复灌输——获得合法性，强调爱国复兴以及为外国强权（尤其是日本）让中国蒙受的耻辱复仇。

Behind the new group of top leaders lies a younger generation of Chinese raised on the “wolf’s milk of hyper-nationalism. In the post-Tiananmen era, the Chinese government has sought legitimacy in a new national narrative – rammed home in schools – that emphasises patriotic revival and the avenging of the humiliations inflicted by foreign powers, above all Japan.

不幸的是，会做出错误估计的不只是中国。美国和日本也可能犯错。日本对其帝国主义军队在上世纪30年代和40年代所犯罪行的态度仍暧昧不明，这令人气愤。还有一些民族主义者很乐意拿日中争端玩火。

Unfortunately, it is not only China that is capable of miscalculation. The Americans and Japanese are also capable of their own mistakes. Japan’s attitude to the crimes committed by its imperial army in the 1930s and 1940s remains infuriatingly equivocal. There are also nationalist voices who are only too happy to play with fire in their dispute with China.

至于美国人，他们的做法不足以消除这种印象：奥巴马那被大肆宣传的“重返亚洲战略只是遏制中国崛起的努力的一种花哨说法。显然，美国政府正利用中国邻国的担忧心理增强自身在亚洲的同盟。在紧缩时代，这一战略的吸引力颇为明显。但它可能会让美国身不由己卷进其亚洲盟国的领土争端。

As for the Americans, they have not done enough to counteract the impression that Mr Obama’s much-ballyhooed “pivot to Asia is just a fancy term for an effort to block the rise of China. The administration is clearly using the fears of China’s neighbours to strengthen its network of alliances across the region. The attractions of this strategy are obvious in an age of austerity. But it runs the risk of making the US hostage to the territorial disputes of its Asian allies.

长期以来，对于悲观的理论家而言，将中国的崛起与1914年之前德国的崛起进行对比一直是一种流行的做法。他们辩称，新兴强国时常会与老牌强国发生冲突。亚洲目前的危机也突显出一种更为准确的对比。在第一次世界大战爆发前的几年里，英国和德国都试图通过精心打造的同盟来互相遏制。后来，在1914年8月的危机中，它们被迫履行条约上的承诺，这可能是它们从未想过或者从未充分设想到的。

It has long been fashionable for gloomy theorists to compare the rise of China with the rise of Germany before 1914. The argument is that emerging great powers all too often come into conflict with established powers. The current crisis in Asia also points to a more precise parallel. In the years before the first world war, Britain and Germany both tried to deter each other by building up elaborate networks of alliances. Then, in the crisis of August 1914, they were compelled to honour treaty commitments in ways that they might never have intended or fully envisaged.

一个好消息是，从我们已知的各种情况来看，中美新一届领导集体都决心避免中美冲突。坏消息是，错误估计的风险和危险在上升。

The good news is that, from everything we know, the new leadership teams in Washington and Beijing are both determined to avoid conflict between the US and China. The bad news is that the risks and dangers of miscalculation are rising.