2012大选夜各时段关注指南

Here's what we know about Election Night 2012: It might be short and sweet, but probably not. It might even be so long and so agonizing it spills into Wednesday and drags on for days, or weeks.

下面是我们所知道的关于2012年大选夜的情况：这个夜晚可能短暂而甜蜜，但或许也不是。它甚至可能拖得很久，令人闹心，延续到周三，拖上几天甚至几周才出结果。

The last three elections have brought a taste of both. There was the tortured saga of 2000, when Florida got hung up on chads in a spat that went to the Supreme Court. And there was the night of relative suspense four years later as the election teetered on final tallies in Ohio before CNN called it for George W. Bush an hour or so before midnight.

此前三次大选让我们尝到了这两种滋味。先是2000年那次令人折磨的大选夜，当时双方就佛罗里达州的计票结果是否准确产生争议，最后官司打到最高法院才得以了断；2004年的大选夜也有悬念，有线电视资讯网(CNN)在午夜前大约一小时才宣布小布什(George W. Bush)获胜，在那之前俄亥俄州的最终计票结果始终无法确定。

The 2010 election was far less taut. When the polls on the West Coast closed at 11 PM Eastern, CNN projected Barack Obama as the next president.

2010年的大选夜没有这么紧张。当西海岸的投票站在美东时间晚上11点关闭时，CNN就预测奥巴马(Barack Obama)将成为下届总统。

This year isn't likely to be so smooth. Polls now show Mr. Obama running neck and neck nationally against Mitt Romney. The race is just as tight in nearly all the battleground states. Unless the big East Coast states tip early for Mr. Obama, the night is bound to be long. (You can watch WSJ.com's election night show. Details here.)

今年的大选夜可能不会这么顺利。目前的民调显示奥巴马在全美范围内和罗姆尼斗得难分高下。在几乎所有的摇摆州，选情都很紧张。除非东海岸几个大州尽早倒向奥巴马，否则这个大选夜注定将会非常漫长。

Here's what to look for as the evening progresses:

以下是大选夜各个时段需要关注的问题：

7 to 7:30 p.m. Eastern

美东时间7点至7点30分

Returns will begin to roll in pretty quickly from the big states along the Eastern seaboard as soon as the first precincts close, though polling stations in some Florida counties in the Panhandle won’t close until 8 p.m.

头一批选区一旦结束投票，东海岸几个大州的统计结果将会很快陆续出炉。但佛罗里达州西北部狭长地带部分县的投票站要到晚上8点才会关闭。

This early block of swing states - Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Ohio - are all but certain to be the big deciders. If Florida looks to be tipping for Mr. Obama, that could suggest an early night. A Romney loss in the Sunshine State could effectively block his path to 270 Electoral votes.

首批进行投票的摇摆州，包括佛罗里达州、北卡罗来纳州、弗吉尼亚州、新罕布什尔州和俄亥俄州，其投票结果几乎肯定都会对最终大选结果造成重大影响。如果佛罗里达州显出支持奥巴马的迹象，那么这可能意味着今年的大选夜不会太漫长。如果罗姆尼输掉了佛罗里达州，那么他想凑齐入主白宫所需的270张选举人票就很困难了。

The same goes for Virginia and Ohio, states where the polls have predicted a down-to-the-wire race.

弗吉尼亚州和俄亥俄州也有类似情况。此前民调结果预测两位候选人在这两个州也是难分高下。

8 p.m. Eastern

美东时间晚上8点

With returns the first states all but sure to be inconclusive early on, keep an eye on Pennsylvania, potentially the most consequential of the states whose polls close at 8. Any sign of weak turnout for Mr. Obama in Philadelphia and its suburbs, or a Romney surge in the more rural states, could spell trouble in a state no Republican has carried since 1988.

由于时间尚早，首批出结果的州肯定不会是决定性的，我们还要关注宾夕法尼亚州。在晚上8点关闭投票站的州中，宾夕法尼亚州的投票结果可能是最具影响力的。如有任何迹象表明奥巴马在费城及其郊区的得票率较低，或是罗姆尼在农村地区的得票率激增，那么这个共和党自1988年以来就从未拿下过的州可能会出现麻烦。

The same goes for Michigan, another reliably blue state the Republicans still hope they may have some chance in. Signs that either are wobbly would presage a scrambled electoral map.

这同样适用于密歇根州。该州是民主党的可靠票仓，但共和党人还是希望能有机会拿下该州。任何摇摆不定的迹象都可能打乱选战形势。

Folks will begin to soak up early results in a number of key Senate races in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, but otherwise the tranche of states closing at 8 doesn’t include many big players in the presidential race.

投票站的工作人员将会开始统计佛罗里达州、俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州和马萨诸塞州等关键几个州的参议员选举的投票情况，但晚上8点关闭投票站的各州没有几个会对总统大选结果造成重大影响。

9 p.m. Eastern

东部时间晚上9点

By now we should have a much better sense of where the early states are tipping. Evidence of potential Romney run of states up the East Coast would portend a long night for Mr. Obama. But only the opposite - signs of real Obama strength in Florida, Virginia or Ohio - would suggest the night might end early.

到了晚上9点，我们会更为清楚地了解先投票的州的情况。如果罗姆尼在东海岸各州领先，对于奥巴马来说，这个夜晚将相当漫长。不过，只有出现截然相反的结果──即奥巴马在佛罗里达、弗吉尼亚和俄亥俄取得真正的优势──大选之夜才有可能早些结束。

Meanwhile, polls in three important states will close at 9: Colorado, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

与此同时，有三个重要的州将会在9点结束投票，这三个州是：科罗拉多州、威斯康星州和明尼苏达州。

Colorado has been the scene of some of the fiercest campaigning all year. Its nine electoral votes mark the last single haul of votes among the swing states west of the Mississippi.

今年，两位候选人在科罗拉多州的竞争一直是最激烈的。该州的九张选举人票是密西西比以西的摇摆州决出的最后一批。

Wisconsin is also a legitimate battleground state this year, with polls showing the two candidates running neck and neck. The campaigns will watch returns from there closely for any signs the Badger State might tip to the Republican side - which hasn't happened since 1984.

威斯康星州今年也是名副其实的摇摆州，民调显示，两名候选人在该州的支持率相差无几。两大竞选阵营将会密切关注威斯康星的结果，看看该州是否会出现倾向于共和党候选人的迹象，1984年以来，威斯康星州在大选中一直支持民主党候选人。

Minnesota, too, should be firmly in Mr. Obama's column, but the Romney camp made a late play to try to turn it their way. Signs of Obama weakness in the Northeast will be a warning flag for his supporters.

奥巴马在明尼苏达州也稳操胜券，但是为了让该州改变倾向，罗姆尼阵营做了最后一搏。如果奥巴马在东北部选情趋弱，就会为他在该州的支持者敲响警钟。

10 p.m. Eastern

东部时间晚上10点

As polls close in Iowa, another key battleground state, returns from the early states should make clear how important these smaller Midwestern and Western states will be. If Mr. Obama appears set to take Ohio, all he will need will be another state such as Iowa or Colorado to put him over the edge so long as he has help Pennsylvania and the other traditional blue states in the Industrial Midwest.

随着另一个关键摇摆州艾奥瓦州的投票结束，早期投票的结果将决定中西部和西部这些更小的州的重要性。如果奥巴马拿下俄亥俄州，他只需再拿下一个州，比如艾奥瓦或科罗拉多，就可以胜出，因为奥巴马在中西部的工业地区已经拥有宾夕法尼亚和其他传统上支持民主党候选人的州的支持。

But if the two candidates look to be dividing the East Coast states - with Mr. Romney looking strong in Florida, for instance, but Mr. Obama holding an edge in Virginia - then all eyes will turn toward who can amass the needed stash by picking off the smaller states such as New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado.

但是如果两名候选人在东海岸各州的支持率平分秋色，比如罗姆尼在佛罗里达州占上风，但是奥巴马在弗吉尼亚州占有优势──那么人们的目光将转向谁能在新罕布什尔州、艾奥瓦州和科罗拉多州等更小的州拿到所需的选举人票。

Polls in the westernmost of the battleground states, Nevada, will also close at 10.

最西的摇摆州内华达州的投票也会在10点结束。

11 p.m. to 1 a.m. Eastern

东部时间晚上11点到凌晨1点

Traditionally, the closing of the polls in California has triggered the last phase of the night - and is usually crowning time for the winning candidate.

传统上，加利福尼亚州投票结束之后，选举之夜的最后阶段将开始──这通常是为获胜候选人加冕的时刻。

Networks are loathe to call presidential elections until all voters get to vote - though that deference doesn't extend to some of the good people who inhabit the Aleutian chain of islands of Alaska, who have until 1 a.m. to vote.

在所有选民都投完票之前，媒体一般不会预先猜测大选结果──不过这不包括住在阿拉斯加阿留申群岛的人们，他们到凌晨1点才开始投票。

By now we may well not have a clear winner. But we should know who's out in front, and who needs to take the states west of the Mississippi to clinch the election.

到这个时候或许仍然没有明确分出胜负。但是我们应该已经可以知道谁取得了领先，谁需要拿下密西西比以西的各州才能赢得大眩

If not, we will truly be in for a long night. If the polls are any guide, it could take hours to determine a winner in a number of pivotal states. Legal challenges could break out, with lawyers demanding recounts.

如果还不能，那就真的要迎来漫长的夜晚了。从民调上看，一些关键州的计票需要几个小时。律师们可能还会提出重新计票的要求。

Worth noting also that there at least a dozen plausible scenarios that would lead to an exact 269-269 tie in the Electoral College vote.

同样值得注意的是，选举人团投票出现269比269的平局的可能性也很大。

And if that were to happen, we wouldn't know who won for months. And probably wouldn't stop bickering over it for years.

如果出现平局，我们可能需要再等几个月的时间才能知道选举结果，而对这一结果的争论可能会持续好几年。